Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0497

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore the formation paths of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters and formulate more effective resettlement policies, five indicators across three dimensions—behavioral attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control—were extracted as antecedent conditions based on the theory of planned behavior. Using questionnaire survey data from 155 farmers in former Caopo township, Sichuan province, a fsQCA was employed to investigate the determinants for farmers' non-migration intention. The results show that household income, agricultural dependence, risk perception, policy satisfaction and subjective norms cannot individually constitute the necessary conditions for non-migration intention. There are three main paths leading to high non-migration intention. The first is "risk indifference", characterized by low risk perception and weak subjective norms. The second is "livelihood constraint", characterized by high agricultural dependence, low household income, and weak subjective norms. The third is "economically secure but unwilling", characterized by high household income, low policy satisfaction, and weak subjective norms.

Key words: natural disasters, non-migration intention, risk perception, preventive resettlement, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA)

CLC Number:

X915.5

CHEN Yong, ZHANG Yi. Determinants and formation path of farmers' non-migration intention in high-risk areas of natural disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(11): 9-15.

Figures/Tables 6

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变量	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
留居意愿	3.355	1.215	1	5
农业依赖	0.558	0.343	0	1
家庭收入/元	13 409.49	11 476.48	1 208	75 690
政策满意度	3.581	1.012	1	5
灾害风险感知	3.419	1.221	1	5
主观规范	2.287	1.181	1	5

变量	完全隶属	交叉点	完全不隶属
留居意愿	4	3	2
农业依赖	0.989	0.588	0.027
家庭收入/元	33 230	10 465	3 095.067
政策满意度	5	4	1
灾害风险感知	5	4	1
主观规范	4	2	1

搬迁意愿	频数	占比/%
很支持	10	6.45
支持	41	26.45
无所谓	13	8.39
反对	66	42.58
坚决反对	25	16.13
总和	155	100

前因变量	高留居意愿		低留居意愿
前因变量	一致性	覆盖度	一致性	覆盖度
农业依赖	0.594	0.717	0.508	0.374
~农业依赖	0.481	0.616	0.615	0.481
家庭收入	0.538	0.725	0.472	0.388
~家庭收入	0.546	0.629	0.666	0.468
政策满意度	0.491	0.669	0.566	0.471
~政策满意度	0.612	0.698	0.602	0.419
灾害风险感知	0.478	0.664	0.550	0.467
~灾害风险感知	0.616	0.692	0.604	0.414
主观规范	0.443	0.558	0.712	0.548
~主观规范	0.641	0.785	0.426	0.318

条件变量	S1	S2	S3
农业依赖	∅	●	—
家庭收入	—	⊗	●
政策满意度	●	—	⊗
灾害风险感知	⊗	—	●
主观规范	⊗	⊗	⊗
一致性	0.817	0.815	0.844
原始覆盖度	0.447	0.322	0.351
唯一覆盖度	0.082	0.058	0.027
总体一致性	0.810
总体覆盖度	0.557