Construction and characteristic analysis of county disaster resilience evolution model for rainstorm disasters

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0754

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to increase the systematicity and flexibility of disaster response behavior at the grassroots level, a triangle model of county disaster resilience was constructed. Taking the rainstorm in Jianchang, Liaoning Province in 2024 as an example, social network analysis method was used to establish an association network among rainstorm disaster events, county disaster bearing bodies and emergency management plans. The system dynamics model reflecting the evolution process of county disaster resilience was designed by introducing the time series dimension, and the individual attributes of network nodes were used as the basis for model evaluation. The results show that the county disaster resilience shows an evolutionary trend of slowly decreasing first and then steadily increasing, and the growth rate gradually accelerates. During the pre-disaster warning stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess the characteristics of suddenness, exposure, and absorption. Organizational preparations, communication preparations, material preparations, and publicity preparations have the greatest room for optimization. During the disaster response stage, disaster events, disaster-bearing bodies, and emergency management plans respectively possess coupling and uncertainty, sensitivity, and adaptability characteristics. There is still room for improvement in the capacity to evacuate the masses, communication guarantee mechanisms, and the resilience of power facilities. During the post-disaster recovery stage, disaster-bearing bodies and emergency management plans respectively possess adaptability and adjustment characteristics. At this time, it is necessary to optimize the planting structure of crops and enhance the flood resistance capacity of roads. Emergency management plans always have the characteristic of learning throughout the entire cycle of disaster response.

Key words: rainstorm disaster, county disaster resilience, dynamic evolution, social network analysis, system dynamics

CLC Number:

X915.5

LEI Ting, HUI Xiaojing, LIU Jie. Construction and characteristic analysis of county disaster resilience evolution model for rainstorm disasters[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(11): 164-171.

Figures/Tables 9

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Table 1

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阶段	灾害事件或承灾体破坏现象	提升倍数最高的应急管理方案	提升倍数
灾前预警	强降雨	组织准备	10.6
		通信准备	10.6
		物料准备	10.6
		宣传准备	10.6
灾中应对	洪涝	停工避险	4.31
	人员安全威胁	救灾物资保障	4.06
	人员安全威胁	医疗卫生保障	4.06
	通信中断	通信设施抢修	1.14
	供电中断	电力设施抢修	1.13
灾后恢复	疫情传播	医疗卫生保障	1.51
	农田毁损	农田恢复	1.13
	交通中断	道路清淤	1.21

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