Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.06.1727

Abstract

Abstract:

The urban lifeline Natech event is a multi-risk and multi-subject coupling system. To qualitatively and quantitatively identify the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech events, first, the risk conduction mechanism was analyzed. Urban lifeline Natech events have both natural disaster chains and domino effects. Then, the complexity and dynamic characteristics of the risk conduction chain were analyzed, and a CN-SD model for the risk conduction chain of the urban lifeline Natech event was constructed. Finally, using the text data of "Top Ten Natural Disasters in China" and their reports, CN indicators such as risk path, risk aggregation, and risk conduction were quantified, and SD indicators such as risk correlation and urban lifeline vulnerability were quantified to numerically simulate the risk conduction rate and degree of urban lifeline Natech event. The results show that the model can qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event, and can visualize the dynamic curves of the domino effect risk conduction rate and degree of technical accidents in transportation, electricity, communication, water supply under natural disaster chain scenarios.

Key words: complex network (CN), system dynamics (SD), urban lifeline, Natech event, risk conduction chain

CLC Number:

X915.2安全社会学

LI Shifeng, SHANG Yu. Research on risk conduction chain of urban lifeline Natech event based on CN-SD[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(6): 200-208.

Figures/Tables 10

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节点i	节点i 加权出度	节点i 聚类系数	节点j	节点j 加权入度	节点j 聚类系数	边介数	风险量峰值
暴雨	657	0.476 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.283 4	181.200 1
排水	305	0.388 9	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.286 9	127.707 9
通信	191	0.381 6	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.430 1	171.782 5
滑坡	381	0.384 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.285 8	135.153 7
洪涝	277	0.512 8	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.284 4	133.258 9
大风	305	0.388 9	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.284 2	126.506 0
电力	387	0.286 2	交通	1 066	0.306 3	0.574 7	251.302 1
雷电	88	0.489 0	通信	535	0.381 6	0.332 0	82.066 4

城市生命线	独立频次概率	共现频次概率	独立-共现概率	独立熵	同一熵	波动熵	脆弱性
交通	0.401 4	0.309 2	0.289 4	0.366 4	0.362 9	0.358 8	0.758 5
电力	0.381 7	0.329 9	0.288 3	0.367 6	0.365 9	0.358 6	0.762 2
供水	0.325 8	0.333 8	0.340 4	0.365 4	0.366 2	0.366 8	0.768 4
排水	0.314 9	0.361 8	0.323 3	0.363 9	0.367 8	0.365 1	0.766 9
通信	0.301 5	0.348 8	0.349 7	0.361 5	0.367 4	0.367 4	0.766 5
燃气	0.273 7	0.351 2	0.375 2	0.354 6	0.367 5	0.367 8	0.760 8
热力	0.205 0	0.303 8	0.491 2	0.324 9	0.361 9	0.349 2	0.711 8