SD model of social stability risk evolution for sensitive water conservancy projects

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2021.04.003

Abstract

Abstract: In order to reduce impact of various factors on social stability of local areas during construction of water conservancy projects, their social stability risks were analyzed comprehensively, and importance of risk indicators were determined by using network analytic hierarchy process (ANP). Meanwhile, a SD model of risk evolution for sensitive water conservancy projects was constructed, which included four subsystems, namely public risk perception, projects' inherent risk, government management risk and social environmental risk. Then, these risks were analyzed, and their mutual relations as well as propagation paths were clarified. Finally, an engineering example was adopted for simulation. The results show that public risk perception was confirmed by SD model to be a major factor affecting social stability during construction of sensitive water conservancy projects. Along with increase in safety investment, social stability risks' value will rise first and then fall sharply before they become controllable gradually.

Key words: sensitivity, water project, social stability, social risk, system dynamics (SD)

CLC Number:

X915.2

JIANG Xin, LI Xuelian, WU Jinghan, LI Wei, LUO Dongli, FEI Fan. SD model of social stability risk evolution for sensitive water conservancy projects[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(4): 18-26.

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