Determination method of comprehensive early-warning indexes for tailings dam based on improved POT model

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.1699

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve online monitoring and early-warning system of tailings dam, a comprehensive early-warning model was proposed based on qualitative indexes and quantitative indexes. Firstly, warning indexes were divided into monitoring indexes and non-monitoring ones whose weights were evaluated respectively, and comprehensive risk values were obtained. Then, an improved POT model was introduced, grand Pareto distuibution(GPD) function of risk indicators was established and solved, and comprehensive early-warning values were determined according to 3σ criterion. Finally, case analysis was conducted with a tailings dam in Hubei Province as an example. The results show that the proposed comprehensive early-warning model can make up for limitations of traditional single-indicator models, and warning values of yellow level, orange level and red level are calculated to be 66.538, 71.387 and 80.585 respectively. Compared with the results of cloud model(CM), it is proved that the proposed model has rationality and effectiveness.

Key words: peak over threshold(POT) model, tailings dam, comprehensive early-warning, online monitoring, index fusion, threshold

ZENG Jihan, ZHANG Guang, WU Hao, HU Shaohua. Determination method of comprehensive early-warning indexes for tailings dam based on improved POT model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(5): 134-139.

Figures/Tables 10

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指标名称		非监测指标特征值及对应风险指数R										工程实际值
堆积密度/(t·m^-3)		>2.0		[1.7,2.0]		[1.4,1.7]		<1.4		—		1.35
堆积密度/(t·m^-3)		10		40		70		100		—		1.35
排渗设施		正常		部分破坏		严重破坏		—		—		正常
排渗设施		10		50		100		—		—		正常
防洪标准	符合		不符合		—		—		—		符合
防洪标准	10		100		—		—		—		符合
排洪能力	良好		合格		差		—		—		良好
排洪能力	10		50		100		—		—		良好
汇水面积/km²	<0.01		[0.01,0.05]		(0.05,0.1]		(0.1,1]		>1		2.84
汇水面积/km²	10		25		50		75		100		2.84
降雨时长/h	<3		[3,12]		(12,24]		(24,72]		>72		<12
降雨时长/h	10		25		50		75		100		<12
平均粒径/mm	>0.5		[0.2,0.5]		[0.05,0.2)		<0.05		—		0.085
平均粒径/mm	10		40		70		100		—		0.085
堆积坝下游坡比(1:n)	>5		[3,5]		[1,3]		<1		—		1:1.8
堆积坝下游坡比(1:n)	10		40		70		100		—		1:1.8
堆积坝高/m	<30		[30,60]		(60,100]		(100,200]		>200		82
堆积坝高/m	10		25		50		75		100		82
地形坡度α/(°)	<5.7		[5.7,25]		>25		—		—		<5.7
地形坡度α/(°)	10		50		100		—		—		<5.7
全库容/万m³	<100		[100,1 000]		(1 000,10 000]		(10 000,50 000]		>50 000		1 469.34
全库容/万m³	10		25		50		75		100		1 469.34
坝体稳定性系数	大于安全系数		小于安全系数		—		—		—		>安全系数
坝体稳定性系数	10		100		—		—		—		>安全系数
坝体裂缝	无裂隙		有少量裂隙		有较多裂隙		有大量裂隙		—		无裂隙
坝体裂缝	10		40		70		100		—		无裂隙

日期	非监测指标风险指数P_a	监测指标风险指数P_b	综合风险指数P
2016-01-01	42.145	66.052	59.396
2016-01-02	42.145	65.106	58.327
︙	︙	︙	︙
2018-06-29	42.145	74.164	69.874
2018-06-30	42.145	77.481	74.837

模型	黄色预警值	橙色预警值	红色预警值
综合预警模型	66.538	71.387	80.585
CM	65.351	72.265	81.448

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