Risk assessment method of risers based on two-dimensional cloud model and BN

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.0699

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to explore key failure modes of non-bonded flexible risers, a risk assessment method combining quantitative assessment and probability reasoning was proposed. Firstly, risk matrix method was improved based on two-dimensional cloud model. Secondly, fault tree was transformed into BN, bottom event was quantitatively evaluated and its occurrence probability was calculated. Then, failure probability of top event was solved and fault source was investigated through BN bidirectional reasoning. Finally, preventive measures were proposed for key failure modes, and the assessment method was verified with an example. The results show that the failure probability of non-bonded flexible risers is 1.099×10^-2. Corrosion, erosion and ship movement are the three failure modes with higher risk levels, and should be paid attention to during maintenance.

Key words: non-bonded flexible riser, two-dimensional cloud model, Bayesian network (BN), risk assessment, quantitative risk analysis, risk matrix method

LIU Jiahao, YU Yang, ZHANG Zhenxing, YU Jianxing, WANG Weiwei, FU Yiqin. Risk assessment method of risers based on two-dimensional cloud model and BN[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(5): 147-154.

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编号	中间事件	编号	中间事件	编号	中间事件
M₁	非粘结柔性立管失效	M₆	扭转断裂	M₁₁	外保护套失效
M₂	压溃	M₇	疲劳	M₁₂	钢丝骨架断裂
M₃	破裂	M₈	压力超过安全范围	M₁₃	钢丝骨架径向屈曲或解锁
M₄	拉伸断裂	M₉	腐蚀与高拉伸荷载联合作用	M₁₄	腐蚀疲劳
M₅	压缩破坏	M₁₀	磨损与高拉伸荷载联合作用	M₁₅	铠装层磨损疲劳
编号	底事件	编号	底事件	编号	底事件
D₁	制造缺陷	D₇	安装缺陷	D₁₃	立管发生扭转
D₂	聚合物老化收缩产生椭圆度	D₈	管道外部磨损	D₁₄	扭转力与钢丝方向一致
D₃	水深过大	D₉	通风系统失效	D₁₅	扭转力与钢丝方向相反
D₄	材料强度不足	D₁₀	拉伸荷载过大	D₁₆	船舶运动
D₅	腐蚀	D₁₁	外保护套屈曲抗力不足	D₁₇	波浪荷载
D₆	侵蚀	D₁₂	抗拉装甲层受压刚度低	D₁₈	聚合物层疲劳

等级	区间数	可能性	严重度
Ⅰ	[0,0.2)	小	系统轻微损坏
Ⅱ	[0.2,0.4)	较小	系统损坏,轻微财产损失
Ⅲ	[0.4,0.6)	中	系统损坏,较大财产损失
Ⅳ	[0.6,0.8)	较大	系统损坏,影响生产
Ⅴ	[0.8,1]	大	系统损坏,造成停产

专家	职称	工龄/ a	学历	年龄/ 岁	得分	主观权重
1	高级工程师	28	硕士	51	16	0.320 0
2	副教授	19	博士	48	15	0.300 0
3	教授	32	博士	56	19	0.380 0
合计					50	1.000 0