Influence of access roads on accident risks of mountainous two-lane highway passing through villages and towns segments

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.05.0444

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to reduce traffic accident risks of mountainous two-lane highways passing through villages and towns segments, SEM and N-K model were constructed based on road alignment, village and town environment as well as traffic accident data. Then, coupling effects of access roads and environment, vehicle and road alignment on traffic accident scale of such mountainous highways were explored, and influence of road-village distance, access road type and quantity, and intersection type on the accident risk and their coupling effects were quantitatively analyzed. The results show that access roads have significant impacts on the accident risk of the above-mentioned highways, and it has a strong coupling effect with horizontal curve factors and vertical curve ones. Road-village distance and intersection type have direct significant effect, while number and type of access roads have only indirect significant effect. The coupling risk of roads detouring villages for more than 100 meters and mechanical tillage road is maximum, with risk coupling degree at 0.359 6, while that of machine tillage road and three access roads is minimal, with coupling degree at 0.000 1.

Key words: access roads, mountainous two-lane highways, passing through villages and towns segments, accident risk, structural equation model (SEM)

JI Xiaofeng, GENG Zhaoshi, PU Yongming, LU Mengyuan, QIN Wenwen. Influence of access roads on accident risks of mountainous two-lane highway passing through villages and towns segments[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(5): 155-162.

Figures/Tables 9

Tab.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Description and statistics of potential variables and observational variables

潜在变量	潜在变量描述	观测变量	编号	观测变量描述(比例/%)
FCF	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段事故发生处的平曲线值	平曲线半径	FCF1	事故发生处弯道半径值(100.00)
FCF	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段事故发生处的平曲线值	平曲线长度	FCF2	事故发生处弯道长度(100.00)
VCF	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段事故发生处的竖曲线值	竖曲线半径	VCF1	事故发生处竖曲线半径值(100.00)
		竖曲线长度	VCF2	事故发生处竖曲线长度(100.00)
		竖曲线坡长	VCF3	事故发生处竖曲线坡长(100.00)
		竖曲线坡度	VCF4	事故发生处竖曲线坡度(100.00)
TE	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段路表状况、事故发生时间、事故发生时的天气状况等环境	路表状况	TE1	干燥(96.57),潮湿(3.43)
		天气	TE2	晴天(94.42),阴天(2.28),雨天(3.30)
		时段	TE3	0:00—6:00(3.05),6:01—9:00(7.61), 9:01—12:00(20.18),12:01—15:00(18.27), 15:01—18:00(22.97),18:01—21:00(21.07), 21:01—23:59(6.85)
		是否周末	TE4	不是周末(67.89),周末(32.11)
ARF	山区双车道公路与村镇接入道路的关系,包括村镇接入道路到山区双车道公路的距离、接入道路交叉口类型、接入道路类型、接入道路的数量	道路-村镇距离	ARF1	道路直接穿过村镇0 m(49.62),道路绕行村镇0~100 m(21.70),道路绕行村镇>100 m(28.68)
		交叉口类型	ARF2	仅有十字型(1.40),仅有T字型(44.80), 有十字型和T字型(53.81)
		接入道路类型	ARF3	村道(49.87),乡道(27.79),机耕道(22.34)
		接入道路数	ARF4	接入道路数量(100.00)
VF	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段肇事车辆类型、属地以及用途	车辆类型	VF1	大型车(6.47),中型车(1.40),小型车(74.87)、微型车(1.02),摩托车(11.80),其他车辆(4.44)
		车辆属地	VF2	本省本地车辆(40.36),本省邻县市车辆(32.61), 本省外市车辆(14.21),外省车辆(12.82)
		是否为职业车辆	VF3	职业车辆(73.73),非职业车辆(26.27)
潜在变量	潜在变量描述	观测变量	编号	观测变量描述(比例/%)
DF	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段负主要责任的驾驶员性别、年龄以及在驾驶过程中是否有违法驾驶	性别	DF1	女性(13.20),男性(86.80)
		年龄	DF2	<18岁(0.38),18~40岁(56.73), 41~60岁(41.62),>60岁(1.27)
		违法驾驶	DF3	无违法驾驶行为(47.59),有违法驾驶行为(52.41)

Tab.3

Fig.1

Tab.4

Fig.2

Tab.5

Tab.6

Fig.3

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数据类型	代表性指标	数据来源
道路线形数据	平曲线半径、平曲线长度、竖曲线半径、竖曲线坡长等	元双公路设计资料
数据类型	代表性指标	数据来源
村镇环境数据	道路-村镇距离、交叉口类型、接入道路类型、接入道路数量	Google earth地图、实地调研
交通事故数据	受伤人数、直接财产损失驾驶员性别、年龄等	交警现场执法记录

内因变量	内因变量描述	观测变量	编号	观测变量描述	比例/%
TAS	山区双车道公路穿村镇路段交通事故规模,用受伤人数、直接财产损失、受损车辆数、涉事车辆数表征	受伤人数	TAS1	受伤人数	100.00
		直接财产损失	TAS2	造成的直接财产损失	100.00
		受损车辆数	TAS3	损伤的车辆数	100.00
		涉事车辆数	TAS4	涉及的车辆数	100.00

评价指标	评价标准	适配度指标
评价指标	评价标准	6个潜在变量对TAS 影响的SEM	ARF因素对TAS 影响的初始SEM	修正后的ARF因素对 TAS影响的SEM
χ²/df	<5.00,良好	3.558	6.354	3.837
评价指标	评价标准	适配度指标
评价指标	评价标准	6个潜在变量对TAS 影响的SEM	ARF因素对TAS 影响的初始SEM	修正后的ARF因素对 TAS影响的SEM
P	<0.05,显著	0.000	0.000	0.000
渐进残差均方和平方根	<0.08,良好	0.057	0.820	0.060
标准化残差均方和平方根	<0.08,良好	0.062	0.084	0.070
适配指标	>0.90,良好	0.921	0.870	0.917
增值适配度指标	>0.90,良好	0.912	0.814	0.903
比较适配指标	>0.90,良好	0.911	0.813	0.902
简约调整规模适配度指标	>0.50,良好	0.738	0.664	0.725

影响效应	FCF	TE	ARF	VF	VCF	DF
间接效应	-0.124	-0.013	0.088	0.189	-0.011	—
直接效应	0.073	-0.067	-0.105	-0.136	0.020	0.842
总效应	-0.051	-0.080	-0.017	0.053	0.009	0.842

影响效应	ARF1 效应值	ARF2 效应值	ARF3 效应值	ARF4 效应值
间接效应	-0.169	-0.081	-0.220	0.180
直接效应	0.168	0.101	0.048	-0.109
总效应	-0.001	0.020	-0.173	0.071