Analysis on characteristics and evolution trend of coal mine accidents in our country during

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.12.0076

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to make an overall macro-level assessment of accident risks in all coal-producing provinces of China, and to analyze the characteristics of accident changes, and to collect data on domestic coal mine accidents during the period of "13^th five-year", from the aspects of coal mine accident type, casualty, time, space and region, this paper analyzes the change of whole coal mine safety situation by mathematical statistics, extension theory and other mathematical methods. The results show that roof accident takes the place of gas accidents as the main accident type, and the accident area is shifting from south to north. The proportion of accidents in state-owned coal mines increased, and more larger size accidents happened in the township coal mine. There are many coal mines, a high death rate of one million tons and complicated geological conditions in the provinces with frequent accidents. Reform of mining institutions and strengthening the main responsibility of enterprises for production safety plays an active role in promoting mine safety production. The change in coal mine accident types, and the establishment of domestic disaster management investment, standard-setting and risk monitoring and early-warning system of coal mine safety production, and the elimination of small and backward coal mines have a strongly coupled correlation. Based on the analysis of extension theory, the overall risk level of coal mine accidents in the early period of the "13^th five-year" is three, by the end of the"13^th five-year", the overall coal mine accident risk level is two, the overall safety situation tends to be good.

Key words: coal mine accident, accident characteristics, trend analysis, extension theory, accident risk

FU Ensan, BAI Runcai, LIU Guangwei, ZHAO Hao, YANG Chuanda. Analysis on characteristics and evolution trend of coal mine accidents in our country during "13^th five-year" plan period[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(12): 88-94.

Figures/Tables 5

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事故类型	死亡人数	事故起数	单起事故平均死亡人数
顶板	517	340	1.52
瓦斯	500	110	4.55
运输	285	230	1.24
其他	167	133	1.26
机电	130	104	1.25
水害	98	38	2.39
火灾	45	6	7.5
爆破	29	23	1.26
煤尘	7	1	7.00

评价因子	评价规则
事故指数	事故起数及等级分类
执法指数	执法完成率
培训指数	全国煤矿主要培训完成率
智能化指数	智能化矿井占比
百万吨死亡率指数	与发达国家百万吨死亡率偏差
死亡指数	死亡人数分段分级

年份	总体风险	事故指数	执法指数	培训指数	百万吨死亡率指数	死亡人数指数
2016	20.65	50	100	94	25.64	48.94
2017	33.8	67	100	97	37.73	58.75
2018	34.3	66.5	100	98	43	58.89
2019	41.77	71	100	100	48.19	58.95
2020	60.23	79	100	100	68.96	68.86
变异系数/%	0.38	0.16	0	0.03	0.36	0.12

年份	事故起数	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)	死亡人数	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)	百万吨死亡率	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)
2016	249	230.67	230.67	230.67	526	411.33	411.33	411.33	0.156	0.118	0.118	0.118
2017	219	232.50	241.67	247.17	375	422.80	480.13	514.53	0.106	0.122	0.141	0.152
2018	224	231.15	228.07	221.82	333	418.02	417.05	388.95	0.093	0.120	0.120	0.111
2019	170	230.44	225.63	223.78	316	409.52	366.62	338.60	0.083	0.118	0.104	0.095
年份	事故起数	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)	死亡人数	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)	百万吨死亡率	预测值 (0.1)	预测值 (0.6)	预测值 (0.9)
2020	123	224.39	192.25	175.38	228	400.17	336.25	318.26	0.058	0.114	0.091	0.084
2021	92	214.25	150.70	128.24	177	382.95	271.30	237.03	0.044	0.109	0.071	0.061
2022	—	202.03	115.48	95.62	—	362.35	214.72	183.00	—	0.102	0.055	0.046
修正结果				67	修正结果			135	修正结果			0.032