Influence analysis on typhoon characteristic parameters on probability calculation of disaster chain

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0852

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to accurately predict impact probability of typhoon characteristic parameters on each disaster in the disaster chain, a probability calculation model of the chain was constructed by using unbalanced sample processing algorithm and accident tree theory. Then, impact between different disasters was weighted, and impact probability between them was obtained by utilizing relationship matrix. Finally, occurrence probability of specific disasters was derived based on calculation model. The results show that changes in typhoon characteristic parameters will lead to changes in calculated probability of primary and secondary disasters in the chain. The higher the wind scale of typhoon is, the greater impact on primary disaster probability will be than on that of secondary ones. Moreover, changes of typhoon track mainly affect types of disasters, and according calculation results, the more typhoon track faces inland area, the more kinds of disasters will appear. The increase in number of typhoons will significantly increase the model's iteration steps to calculate disaster probability

Key words: typhoon characteristic parameter, disaster chain, probability calculation, primary disaster, secondary disaster

YU Qiang, HUANG Yicheng, SHA Ce. Influence analysis on typhoon characteristic parameters on probability calculation of disaster chain[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(8): 168-175.

Figures/Tables 8

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模型参数名称	参数意义	参数初始化值
台风风力	登陆时的风力值(级别)	1~20
台风路径	台风风向与内陆深入方向之间的切角	0~90°
台风数量	登陆时台风数量	1~5