Urban resilience influence factors from perspective of disaster chain

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.11.0778

Abstract

Abstract:

To enhance urban resilience against disaster chains, this study proposed an analytical framework and methodology for identifying influencing factors from a disaster chain perspective. Firstly, a comprehensive list of urban resilience influencing factors was established by focusing on the core capacities of resilient cities within disaster chain contexts. Secondly, an improved fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM integrated method was introduced to identify top-level factors, clarify hierarchical structures and interaction pathways among influencing factors, and analyze resilience enhancement approaches from economic and demographic perspectives. Finally, taking the resilience construction practice of Chengdu in the context of disaster chain as an example, the rationality of this theoretical analysis was verified. Results indicate that the top-level design factors, aimed at addressing disaster chains, primarily focus on prevention, preparedness, and adaptation. Fundamental factors include insurance protection, emergency command in the disaster chain scenario and government departments' ability to jointly handle chain disruptions to reduce disasters, adequacy of emergency resource preparation, and ecological environment restoration and governance. Direct influencing factors encompass housing quality, medical assistance capacity, emergency evacuation capacity, and basic living security. The most effective approaches to enhance economic resilience in disaster chains are strengthening insurance protection and accelerating infrastructure repair, both promoting economic recovery. Enhancing population resilience relies primarily on measures such as housing security, life support, emergency evacuation support, and basic living security. Chengdu maintains relatively sound resilience construction under disaster chain scenarios, though certain aspects require further optimization.

Key words: disaster chain, urban resilience, influencing factors, decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling (ISM)

CLC Number:

X915.5

YANG Yuying, GUO Haixiang. Urban resilience influence factors from perspective of disaster chain[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(11): 190-197.

Figures/Tables 8

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

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Table 4

Analysis of resilience construction practice in Chengdu city under disaster chain situation

序号	成都市在灾害链情境下的韧性建设实践分析	对应选取的影响因素(编码)
1	以公园城市理念推进山水林田湖草综合治理,防治洪涝及地质灾害链,成为全球超大城市生态治理典范	S₁、S₂、S₃₈
2	注重智慧城市建设。近2年增加34.5亿元用于灾害防治及应急管理;构建空天地一体化的智能化灾害监测体系,初步建成地震、山洪、洪涝、森林火灾动态监测预警体系,开展地质、地震专项风险调查,进行危房改造;建设城市安全风险综合监测预警平台,整合物联网、行业部门和公众感知数据,覆盖燃气、供水、桥梁等高风险领域,动态监测中高风险隐患点;构建多灾种预警信息发布平台,同步研发地震预警软件,强化应急通信保障机制及信息员队伍建设,全面升级防灾减灾救灾能力	S₂、S₃、S₄、S₉、 S₁₃、S₁₄、S₂₀
3	印发突发地质、气象等灾害应急预案,职责明确,关注次生、衍生灾害的处理		S₆
4	建成“1+N”防灾减灾体验场馆及国家级科普教育基地,推动公园、学校、社区、民营机构安全体验馆建设,提升公众防灾减灾意识和应急能力		S₇、S₁₈
5	修复和升级电网、水网、燃气、道路、住宅、医院、学校、应急避难所、货运枢纽等基础设施,减少故障风险		S₈、S₃₃
6	推行住房“以旧换新”并提升抗震标准		S₉、S₃₄
7	建设多灾兼顾应急避难场所(人均1.5㎡),社区云广播可快速切换预警并优化疏散路线		S₁₀、S₂₈
8	构建成都都市圈救灾物资协同保障体系,建成市级集散中心-区县仓库-镇街基层点-前置储备库四级救灾物资集散体系;建立储备抗洪抢险、地震救援等5大类1.4万台(套)装备;开展应急调运实战演练,建立快速配送机制		S₁₁、S₁₉、S₂₆
9	逐步推广巨灾保险、农业保险、住房保险,覆盖地震、暴雨、洪水等灾种		S₁₂
10	初步形成驻蓉军队+消防救援+专业/社会/基层/专家力量的应急救援力量体系		S₁₆
11	建立社会力量统筹协调平台;社区“一核引领”模式整合警务、物业与志愿者,实现“小事不出院落”		S₁₇、S₂₂、S₂₅
12	部分区开展地震、洪涝灾害应急联动处置桌面推演;开展成德眉资跨区域应急演练和救援力量建设		S₂₃、S₂₄
13	医疗资源丰富,床位数16.72万张,每千人口床位数为7.86张,位列全国前列		S₂₇
14	教育水平稳步提升但高学历人口占比偏低、平均受教育年限较短、文盲率较高		S₂₉
15	地震、滑坡、洪涝、干旱灾害链发生较多,经验较丰富		S₃₀
16	基本生活保障体系完善,居民收入稳步增长		S₃₁
17	成都市作为西部经济中心,经济发展稳步增长,2024年国内生产总值达2.35万亿元(位居全国第7),同比增长6.2%		S₃₂

Table 4

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语义	三角模糊数
没有影响	(0, 0, 0.2)
较弱影响	(0, 0.2, 0.4)
弱影响	(0.2, 0.4, 0.6)
强影响	(0.4, 0.6, 0.8)
非常强影响	(0.8, 1, 1)

能力	影响因素及编码	能力	影响因素及编码
预防	生态环境保护S₁	响应	基层自治能力S₂₂
	灾害链防灾减灾资金投入与科学规划S₂		灾害链场景下应急指挥与政府部门联动处置断链减灾能力S₂₃
	灾害链动态综合监测精准预警S₃		灾害链情景下应急队伍协作救援S₂₄
	灾害链灾害隐患点早期识别、排查、治理与维护S₄		社会援助S₂₅
	应急规划实施情况的监督检查S₅		灾害链情景下应急资源供应与优化分配能力S₂₆
	灾害链应急预案质量S₆		医疗救助能力S₂₇
	灾害链防灾减灾知识宣传教育S₇		应急疏散能力S₂₈
	基础设施抗灾能力S₈		应急通信与信息传递S₂₀
	住房质量S₉		人口素质S₂₉
	灾害链场景下应急避难场所与应急疏散路径规划S₁₀		灾害链应对经验S₃₀
	应急资源保障体系建设S₁₁		生活基本保障S₃₁
	保险保障S₁₂	恢复	经济基础S₃₂
	智能化防控技术应用S₁₃		保险保障S₁₂
	应急管理信息化水平S₁₄		基础设施修复S₃₃
	应急管理法律法规完善度S₁₅		住房重建S₃₄
	灾害链情境下应急管理人才与专业队伍建设S₁₆		经济恢复S₃₅
	社会力量建设S₁₇		政府援助S₃₆
准备	社会公众灾害链防灾意识与防灾准备S₁₈		社会援助S₂₅
	灾害链情景下应急资源准备充分程度S₁₉		心理健康支持S₃₇
	灾害链动态综合监测精准预警S₃	适应	生态环境修复与治理S₃₈
	应急通信与信息传递S₂₀		灾害链应对经验总结S₃₉
	灾害链风险感知识别与联合会商研判能力S₂₁		灾害链防灾减灾规划优化S₄₀

层级	影响因素
第1层	S₃₁、S₃₇、S₉
第2层	S₁₀、S₁₂、S₂₄、S₂₇
第3层	S₂₈、S₃₄、S₁₉
第4层	S₂₃、S₃₅、S₃₈、S₁₇
第5层	S₂₆、S₄、S₃₃
第6层	S₁
第6层及以上	S₈、S₁₁、S₇、S₂₅、S₃₆、S₁₈、S₃₂、S₃、S₂₁、S₂₂、 S₆、S₂₀、S₂₉、S₁₄、S₁₅、S₂、S₁₃、S₄₀、S₅、S₃₉、S₁₆、S₃₀