Risk analysis on fire accident of urban commercial complex based on fuzzy Bayesian network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.12.0879

Abstract

Abstract:

To effectively reduce the risk of fire accidents in urban commercial complexes, firstly, based on the causal analysis of the evolution process of fire accidents and influencing factors, the corresponding Fault Tree (FT) and Event Tree (ET) models were constructed. Then they were mapped into Bayesian networks (BN) to determine the conditional relationships between influencing factors. Secondly, fuzzy theory based on expert judgment was used to determine the prior probabilities of basic events. The FBN model was constructed to overcome the uncertainty of failure probabilities of risk factors. Finally, the FBN-established risk assessment model was utilized to perform bidirectional inference and sensitivity analysis for fire accidents of urban commercial complexes, identifying the key influencing factors leading to fire accidents at different severity levels. The study indicates that strengthening fire and smoke zoning design, increasing the fire resistance rating of fire separation facilities, installing fire separation facilities reasonably and reducing the failure rate of smoke exhaust systems can effectively prevent the occurrence of high-loss risk-level fire accidents.

Key words: fire accident, urban commercial complex, fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN), risk analysis, prior probability

QIN Rongshui, SHI Chenchen, CHEN Chao, LAN Meng, LIU Xiaoyong, XIAO Junfeng. Risk analysis on fire accident of urban commercial complex based on fuzzy Bayesian network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(12): 176-182.

Figures/Tables 7

Tab.1

Symbols and meanings of related events in FT

符号	含义	符号	含义	符号	含义
M₁	点火源	X₆	邻近易燃易爆场所火源	X₃₄	防烟分区设计不合理
M₂	可燃物	X₇	可燃物自燃	X₃₅	防排烟系统故障
M₃	建筑外部点火源	X₈	其他原因引起的火源	X₃₆	防排烟系统设计不符合规范
M₄	建筑内部点火源	X₉	吸烟	X₃₇	防火分隔设施耐火等级不够
M₅	人不安全行为引起的火源	X₁₀	玩火	X₃₈	防火分隔设置安装不合要求
M₆	设备不安全状态引起的火源	X₁₁	纵火	X₃₉	防火分区设计不合理
M₇	电器短路	X₁₂	装修中违章动火作业	X₄₀	没有成立义务消防队
M₈	电器过载	X₁₃	餐饮厨房不规范用火用电	X₄₁	人员不会使用消防设备
M₉	电器使用不当	X₁₄	电线绝缘老化	X₄₂	消火栓损坏
M₁₀	火灾自动报警系统失效	X₁₅	接触不良	X₄₃	消防给水不足
M₁₁	自动灭火系统失效	X₁₆	设备运行故障	X₄₄	消防通道堵塞
M₁₂	管网内无水	X₁₇	同时运行多个大功率设备	X₄₅	消防通道设计不合理
M₁₃	水泵房设备不工作	X₁₈	电线私拉乱接	X₄₆	登高操作场地被占用
M₁₄	无水源	X₁₉	设备安装位置不当	X₄₇	室外消火栓损坏
M₁₅	烟气控制失效	X₂₀	火灾探测器失效	X₄₈	消防站距离远
M₁₆	防火分隔失效	X₂₁	手动报警按钮失效	X₄₉	交通堵塞
M₁₇	本单位消防灭火失败	X₂₂	火灾报警控制器失效	X₅₀	疏散通道堵塞
M₁₈	消防队灭火失败	X₂₃	消防联动控制柜失效	X₅₁	安全疏散距离过大
M₁₉	未及时到达火灾现场	X₂₄	传输系统失效	X₅₂	疏散路线不合理
M₂₀	疏散通道设计不合理	X₂₅	玻璃球不破裂	X₅₃	安全出口数量不够
M₂₁	组织人员疏散不力	X₂₆	喷头堵塞	X₅₄	安全出口宽度不够
M₂₂	安全出口设计不合理	X₂₇	管网堵塞	X₅₅	未设置消防疏散图
M₂₃	应急疏散设施故障	X₂₈	压力开关故障	X₅₆	消防管理人员对疏散路径不熟
X₁	临时存放的可燃物	X₂₉	水泵故障	X₅₇	疏散指示灯损坏
X₂	固定储存的可燃物	X₃₀	水流指示器故障	X₅₈	消防广播系统故障
X₃	邻近建筑发生火灾	X₃₁	探测器故障	X₅₉	应急照明系统故障
X₄	违规燃放烟花	X₃₂	消防水池水量不足	X₆₀	消防电梯故障
X₅	雷暴	X₃₃	进水阀关闭	—	—

Tab.1

Fig.1

Tab.2

Tab.3

Tab.4

Fig.2

Fig.3

References 16

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描述术语	模糊数形式
很低	(0, 0, 0.1, 0.2)
低	(0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.3)
较低	(0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5)
中等	(0.4, 0.5, 0.5, 0.6)
较高	(0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8)
高	(0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9)
很高	(0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.0)

标准	级别	得分
职称	高级管理人员/教授	4
	经理/副教授	3
	工程师	2
	技术员	1
工作年限/a	>20	4
	10~19	3
	6~9	2
	<5	1
教育程度	博士研究生	4
	硕士研究生	3
	学士	2
	高中	1

符号	专家					聚合的模糊数				模糊可能性	模糊概率 (先验概率)
符号	1	2	3	4	5	聚合的模糊数				模糊可能性	模糊概率 (先验概率)
X₁	高	高	中等	很高	很高	0.686	0.786	0.835	0.886	0.796	0.034 507
X₂	中等	很高	中等	很高	很高	0.642	0.742	0.803	0.842	0.754	0.026 131
X₃	很低	中等	低	低	很低	0.089	0.142	0.189	0.289	0.179	0.000 151
︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙
X₅₈	中等	较高	中等	很低	较低	0.272	0.351	0.412	0.512	0.388	0.002 095
X₅₉	中等	较高	中等	很低	较低	0.272	0.351	0.412	0.512	0.388	0.002 095
X₆₀	低	中等	低	较低	较低	0.184	0.284	0.333	0.433	0.308	0.000 972