China Safety Science Journal

Construction and empirical analysis of accident cause model under SIC thinking

LUO Tongyuan, WU Chao

2017, 27(10): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.001

Asbtract ( 155 )

PDF (4034KB) ( 295 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to explore and enrich the theoretical model of accident causation from the perspective of information cognition, based on cognitive psychology theory and information processing process, the information dissemination method was used to built an SIC accident model composed of external process and internal process. The model includes three major noise disturbances, five feedback links, nine kinds of time delay phenomena and 10 times signal attenuation phenomena. The security information transmission process and its connotation were studied. The lack of security information and attenuation phenomena and dynamic feedback mechanism were revealed. From the perspectives of developing theory of accidents, establishing the disciplines, improving the system and guiding accident investigation, the theoretical significance and practical value of the model were examined. The results show that SIC is operationable and provides a new analysis strategy for accident causation research.

ERP-based study on influence of fatigue on drivers'mental rotation ability

GUO Zizheng, LIU Xian, CHEN Ruiya, ZHANG Jun

2017, 27(10): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.002

Asbtract ( 184 )

PDF (3005KB) ( 326 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For the sake of investigating the influence of fatigue on the mental fatigue of drivers, ERP-based experiments were carried out. In the experiments, the mental rotation ability of drivers was determined before and after they fulfilling a 2-hour simulated driving task respectively. Based on the experimental data, the change and variability in behavioral performance (reaction time, accuracy) and ERP component (amplitude and latency of P3) before and after the driving fatigue were analyzed. It was found that driving fatigue decreased the behavior performance significantly (delayed reaction time, decreased accuracy), and the ERP component P3's amplitude decreased and latency delayed significantly in the parietal lobe. The conclusion the authors arrived at is that fatigue influences the allocation of cognitive resources and the speed of information processing of drivers in mental rotation process, resulting in undermining the mental rotation ability.

Study on injuries to cyclist from car-electric bicycle side collision

ZHANG Peng, ZHANG Daowen, YIN Jun, WANG Xin

2017, 27(10): 13-18. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.003

Asbtract ( 351 )

PDF (3084KB) ( 389 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For the sake of exploring the influencing factors on injuries to cyclist from electric bicycle and automobile side collision, accident reconstruction simulation experiments were carried out by using the multi-body dynamics simulation software of PC-Crash based on the national vehicle accident investigation system (NAIS). Effects of both collision angle and contact position on injuries to cyclist from car-electric bicycle side collision were studied. The results of study show that the contact position of side collision between the electric bicycle and the car has a greater impact on the cyclist's injury, that in the case of side collision with SUV models, cyclist head injury is the most serious in the middle impact, and lower limb injury is the most serious in the rear collision, and that the influence of the angle of the collision between the electric bicycle and the car has no obvious influence on the cyclist's injury.

NRS-ACPSO-SVM based model for prediction of rock burst risk

WEN Tingxin, YU Feng

2017, 27(10): 19-25. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.004

Asbtract ( 282 )

PDF (1408KB) ( 289 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to predict rockburst risk quickly and accurately, a model was built for prediction of rock burst risk based on NRS-ACPSO-SVM. Before building the model, firstly, on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of influence factors of rockburst risk was made on the basis of the data on Chongqing Yanshitai Mine taken as an example,10 main indexes influencing rock burst such as coal thickness,coal seam dip angle,buried depth and so on were selected as the characteristic indicators of rock burst risk. Secondly, the NRS theory was used to reduce the dimensionality of characteristic indicators, the reduction set consisted of the key attributes affecting the rock burst risk were extracted. Finally, in order to avoid the random selection of SVM model parameters, ACPSO algorithm was used to optimize the SVM's parameters, the reduction set as the input into ACPSO-SVM model was trained, and trained ACPSO-SVM model was used to predict rockburst risk of testing samples, and a comparison was made between the model and other models in the prediction results. The results show that NRS can effectively reduce attributes, and simplify model's structure, the accuracy and efficiency of prediction model are improved; using ACPSO to optimize SVM model can make the results to avoid getting into the local extremum, and improve the convergence speed and prediction accuracy, the model can be used to effectively predict risk level of rock burst.

Study on route planning and 3D simulation of escape from mine fire

LIU Xiaoxiao, WANG Yunjia, BI Jingxue, XU Liang

2017, 27(10): 26-31. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.005

Asbtract ( 193 )

PDF (3537KB) ( 486 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To study the escape-route planning under the influence of air flow and fume in mine fire, a 3D simulation model for personnel escape in mine fire was built. Firstly, a three-dimensional structure model of roadway network was built as a display platform. Secondly, the wind speed and direction, as well as the spread of fire temperature and smoke mass fraction during the mine fire were calculated, based on the ventilation network calculation model and the fume spread parameter model. To obtain the personnel escape route results, influence coefficients of factors, including slope, wind speed and direction, temperature, and smoke, on the equivalent length of tunnel were determined, and a fire escape path planning algorithm was applied. Finally, a three-dimensional simulation of personnel escape during mine fire was conducted in a certain mine in China. According to the different situations of mine fire, three reasonable escape routes, i.e. ideal, available and emergency escape routes, were obtained through the simulation demonstration.

Progress in research on identification and detection of vehicle typical hazardous driving states

LIU Tong, FU Rui, ZHANG Shiwei, DENG Mingyang

2017, 27(10): 32-37. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.006

Asbtract ( 175 )

PDF (1439KB) ( 543 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Progress in research on identification and detection of vehicle typical hazardous driving states was reviewed. Longitudinal and horizontal hazardous driving states and their characteristic parameters were examined, methods of identification and detection of the states were summarized. Future research trends were prospected. The results show that there are some differences in the range of thresholds for driving events in different literatures and there is still lacking of a uniform standard, that HMM has higher accuracy in the hazardous driving events identification, that available identification methods of typical hazardous driving states of vehicle have their own advantages and disadvantages, the methods based on portable devices and multi-sensors data are relatively superior, and that identification and detection of vehicle hazardous driving states based on the fusion data of multi-sensors will be the future research direction.

Intension expressing of safety events based on safety structure theory

JIN Zhixin, WANG Yansheng, DENG Cunbao

2017, 27(10): 38-43. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.007

Asbtract ( 132 )

PDF (1272KB) ( 249 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to enhance the understanding of the essence of safety events in safety scientific researches, mathematical expression was researched for the intension of safety events based on the safety structure theory. Intrinsic factors in safety events were defined, and a processing algorithm was proposed for obtaining the intrinsic factors set by factors reduction, factors set completeness test and factors independence test. A definition of the intension of the safety events was given from the perspective of the logic. A mathematical expression was worked out for the intension of safety events based on the membership function of representation extension of intrinsic factors. The research show that the intrinsic factors set of a safety event consists of all independent and complete factors determining the occurrence of the safety event, and the intension of a safety event is the combination of the attributes of all intrinsic factors of the safety event, and that the factor space of a safety event is constituted by the cartesian product set of the states sets of all the intrinsic factors, and is the mathematical logic analysis framework to describe the intension of the safety event.

Study on sulfide ore spontaneous combustion inhibition effect of chemical foam inhibitor

LI Zijun, CHEN Tianfeng, LI Ming, ZHAO Limin, JIANG Wenjuan

2017, 27(10): 44-49. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.008

Asbtract ( 126 )

PDF (3951KB) ( 202 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to prevent sulfide ore spontaneous combustion and improve the effect of the existing inhibitor, a kind of chemical foam inhibitor was put forward, which uses aluminum sulfate, sodium bicarbonate, ferric chloride and plant protein hydrolysate as raw materials. By using the method of four factors and three levels orthogonal experiment, the inhibitor was prepared. By measuring the frothing volume, viscosity, surface tension and the oxidation weight gain rate in 15 days under the condition of constant temperature and humidity, the foaming ability, wall adhesion, permeability, and the actual effect of the inhibitor were explored. The results show that the mass fractions of the aluminum sulfate, sodium bicarbonate, ferric chloride and plant protein hydrolysate are 8.6%, 4.3%, 0.35% and 0.26% respectively when the foaming performance is the best, that the mass fractions are 11.5%, 11.5%, 0.31% and 0.08% respectively when the permeability is optimal, and that the mass fractions are 8.0%, 12.0%, 0.16% and 0.16% respectively when the wall adhesion and inhibitor performance are optimal.

Model for prediction of critical smoke extraction rate from road tunnel with central exhaust system

JIANG Xuepeng, CHEN Shu, GUO Kun

2017, 27(10): 50-55. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.009

Asbtract ( 146 )

PDF (2726KB) ( 265 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To design a reasonable smoke exhaust volume for the road tunnels with a central exhaust system , the influence of the critical smoke exhaust rate on the efficiency of the central exhaust system was studied with a 1∶20 scale tunnel model. By measuring the smoke layer temperature, thickness at 6 heat release rates and different mechanical smoke exhaust volumes, and these critical smoke extraction rate test values, corresponding to the plugholing phenomena, were obtained under different heat release rates. A comparison was made between the values of model test and the calculated values. The differences between three kinds of critical smoke exhaust rate calculation models were analyzed. By introducing a correction coefficient of heat release rate to the TM 19-1995 model, an exponential expression was obtained for corrected critical smoke extraction rate as a function of the heat release rate. The results show that the critical smoke extraction rates calculated by both the Heselden model and the TM 19-1995 model, are smaller than the measured rates, and there is a linear correlation relation between the critical smote extraction rate and the heat release rate.

Experimental study on extinguishing dense stacking fire with temperature sensitive P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel aqueous solution

JIA Chunlei

2017, 27(10): 56-61. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.010

Asbtract ( 156 )

PDF (5401KB) ( 346 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to extinguish the dense stacking fire effectively, based on the previous synthesis experiment, contrast tests on extinguishing dense stacking fire were carried out with temperature sensitive P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel aqueous solution and water respectively. The stacking used in the tests was densified based on Water Beased Extinguishing Agent standard of fire rating for 1A stacking. The results of the tests show that the dense stacking fire was extinguished successfully with P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel aqueous solution, that the flame extinguishing time, the extinguishing time and the video fire extinguishing time recorded when the P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel aqueous solution is used as the extinguishing agent are all significantly shorter than water those recorded when water is used as the extinguishing agent under the same conditions, that a sol/gel phase transition occurs when the temperature sensitive P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel water solution is used, and that no new toxic gas is detected during the fire extinguishing process with the temperature sensitive P (NIPAm/AA-Na) gel aqueous solution.

High plateau airport pool fire combustion characteristic research

WANG Jian, WANG Wei, YANG Rui, LI Cong, TAO Zhenxiang

2017, 27(10): 62-67. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.011

Asbtract ( 151 )

PDF (1621KB) ( 320 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To analyze the high plateau airport pool fire combustion characteristics affected by the low air pressure, such as flame temperature, mass burning rate and radiation flux, experiments were conducted in the Kangding High Platea Airport Laboratory with by using an ISO9705 combustion system. Heat release rate, burning rate and flame temperature field distribution and flame radiation heat flux were recorded and analyzed. The relationship between oil pool size and mass burning rate was deduced, and it was found that the mass burning varies linearly with oil pool size. The flame temperature was found that the classical theory cannot correctly predict the airport plume temperature rise for the influence of low pressure and low oxygen concentration. By the curve fitting method, the relationship between the oil pool size and the heat radiation flux was also obtained.

UPM based analysis of common cause failures in diesel engine cooling system

GU Yingkui, YU Dongping, ZHANG Quanxin

2017, 27(10): 68-74. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.012

Asbtract ( 143 )

PDF (1790KB) ( 210 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to reasonably determine the β factor value required by the β factor model used for analyzing failures in a system and improve the accuracy of the analysis results, a common cause failure analysis method based on UPM was worked out. For working out the method, a system fault tree model was built to obtain the structural importance values of basic events, and to determine the common cause component groups. Then, a system fault tree model containing common cause failure basic events was built and the key common cause failure components were obtained by using the screening analysis method. The β factor values of the common cause components were determined by using UPM to calculate the failure probabilities of the key components and the system. Finally, a case of common cause failure analysis of a certain diesel engine cooling system was done to illustrate the method. Results show that the UPM-based common cause failure analysis method can be used to estimate the β factor value more accurately, and that the method can make an accurate analysis of the influence degree of each of common cause failure basic events on common cause failure of major components.

Application of QFD and fuzzy 2-tuple linguistic model in hazmat transportation risk management and control

YANG Qiang, ZHANG Xu, LUO Tao, LI Yanlai

2017, 27(10): 75-80. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.013

Asbtract ( 135 )

PDF (1474KB) ( 274 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For the sake of controlling the hazmat transportation risk and ensuring the quality of transportation service, this paper was aimed at working out a transportation risk management and control method based on QFD and fuzzy 2-tuple linguistic model. Firstly, based on house of quality(HoQ), a core technology of QFD, risk factors in the hazmat transportation process were identified and then a hierarchical structure of the risk evaluation index system was established. Secondly, the comprehensive importance rating of each risk factor was evaluated based on fuzzy linguistic evaluation model. In particular, a comprehensive weighting model was built that can minimize the distance between subjective weights and objective weights for determining the experts' relative weights based on G1 method and the entropy method. The research results show that QFD helps to identify the risk factors affecting hazmat transportation and the fuzzy 2-tuple linguistic model not only facilitates the expression of the evaluation results but also effectively avoids the loss of decision information, and that the transportation risk management and control should pay more attention to emergency equipment, professional skills of practitioners and emergency plans.

Simulating and experimental study on enhancing gas drainage from low permeability coal seam by hydraulic fracturing

ZHOU Xihua, ZHOU Lijun, FAN Chaojun, BAI Gang, SONG Dongping

2017, 27(10): 81-86. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.014

Asbtract ( 139 )

PDF (2133KB) ( 192 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Gas drainage from low permeability coal seams has been confronted with many problems, such as low gas drainage efficiency, great drainage difficulty, and heavy workload of borehole construction. This paper was aimed at using hydraulic fracturing to increase coal seam permeability and enhance gas drainage. A damage-stress-seepage coupling model was built based on multiphysics and elastic damage theory, and numerical simulations of hydraulic fracturing and gas drainage in the 15108 panel of Mabao mine were carried out. Changes in the parameters during hydraulic fracturing and gas extraction including elastic modulus, permeability and gas pressure were analyzed. The key parameters were determined and applied in engineering tests. The results show that fracturing water with high energy will rupture the coal seam and cause a steep increase of permeability in the fractured zone which can speed up the migration of gas from coal seam to boreholes, that with the increase of hydraulic fracturing time, the damage zone will be gradually enlarged, that when hydraulic fracturing 10 000 s, the damage zone between two fracture holes will be connected at the middle drainage hole with a fracture influence range of 14 m, that the average and maximum gas drainage fluxes in hydraulic fractured zone are 63.79 m³/d and 126.57 m³/d, 9.65 times and 7.23 times as much as that in non fractured zone respectively, and that the permeability of coal seam is increased by 67 times.

Experimental study on time-frequency characteristics of hydraulic fracturing acoustic emission in coal shale

TANG Jupeng, LU Jiangwei, XU Peng, DING Jiahui, QI Tong

2017, 27(10): 87-92. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.015

Asbtract ( 97 )

PDF (2499KB) ( 197 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

The process and characteristics of hydraulic fracturing in coal shale were studied. The coal shale in the Fuxin Sunjiawan coal mine was regarded as the research object. The test was carried out by using a piece of triaxial hydraulic fracturing equipment. Then the original acoustic emission signal was time-converted by Short-Time Fourier Transform(STFT). The relationships between time-frequency parameters and crack initiation and propagation were obtained. The results show that the amplitude change rate can be used as an index to judge the stage of crack initiation or propagation, that the amplitude change rate of initiation stage increases with the increase of horizontal stress difference, that the amplitude change rate of the propagation stage increases first and then decreases with the increase of horizontal stress difference, that when the horizontal stress difference is 0, 0.2 and 0.4 MPa, the amplitude change rate in initiation stage is 2.88 times, 3.14 times and 5.36 times as high as that in the propagation stage respectively, that there is a linear decreasing relationship between the dominant frequency and the horizontal stress difference in crack initiation and propagation stage, and that in propagation stage, the dominant frequency is 2 times, 1.96 times and 1.99 times as high as that in crack initiation stage respectively.

Energy analysis of coal and gas outburst process based on gas content method

CHEN Xianzhan, YUAN Liang, XUE Sheng, LI Wenquan

2017, 27(10): 93-98. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.016

Asbtract ( 105 )

PDF (2089KB) ( 180 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For the sake of preventing coal and gas (methane) outburst accidents effectively in coal mines, the energy conversion during coal and gas outburst process was studied by the gas content method. Six examples of coal and gas outburst were investigated firstly. Ten groups of simulation tests were conducted in laboratory by using a piece of self-developed testing apparatus to verify the analysis outcome of outburst examples. The results show that the proportion of elastic energy in total outburst energy is 0.01%-2.36% and the proportion of gas expansion energy in total outburst energy is 97.64%-99.99%, that the free gas expansion energy takes up 0.07%-8.82% of total expansion energy and the desorbed gas expansion energy takes up 91.18%-99.93% of total expansion energy, which turns out to be consistent with the simulation testing results, that the gas expansion energy is the majority of outburst energy and the desorbed gas supplies the most of gas expansion energy, and that the occurrence and intensity of outburst are greatly influenced by gas content.

Simulation study on fracture evolution and seepage characteristics of stratified coal under stress loading condition

LIU Jiajia, YANG Ming, ZHANG Junwei, WANG Dan

2017, 27(10): 99-104. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.017

Asbtract ( 126 )

PDF (6044KB) ( 255 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To explore the influence of bedding structure on the evolution of fracture in coal seam and gas seepage characteristics, and to optimize the design of gas extraction a simulation study was carried out on samples of coal different in bedding by using the RFPA^2D-Flow software. The results show that the all coal samples different in bedding end in shear failure but their final failure patterns have obvious difference are different from each other, that the simulation result of oblique bedding coal sample conforms basically to the test results, verifying the effectiveness of the simulation.

Experimental study on charge induction law of water inrush in mine floor

ZHENG Wenhong, CHEN Guangyang, LUO Hao, PAN Yishan, TANG Zhi

2017, 27(10): 105-110. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.018

Asbtract ( 118 )

PDF (2945KB) ( 219 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

For complex hydrogeological conditions, the judgement about both the formation of and damage to mine water flowing channel in floor is regarded as a difficult problem. Based on charge induction monitoring technique, the relationship between the charge signal and wall thickness was examined by carrying out hydraulic fracturing tests. The charge characteristics of water channel as a function of the depth of mining space were studied. The relation between the precursor information of charge and formation of water inrush channel was explored. The results show that large pulses of charge signal and acoustic emission signal appear before the initiation pressure, and the order of two signals is random, which is related to the structure and composition of the rock mass, that the larger the wall thickness is, the greater the crack initiation pressure is and the greater the amount of charge released will be, and release of the charge is necessarily related to the force required for the deformation and failure of specimen, that wall thickness has a significant effect on the charge induced signal's in the decay time and charge accumulation, and detecting the formation depth of water flowing channel by charge induced signal is feasible.

Risk analysis of coupling domino effect in petroliferous tank farm

CHEN Fuzhen, ZHANG Mingguang, WANG Yan, SONG Jian, ZHENG Feng

2017, 27(10): 111-116. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.019

Asbtract ( 179 )

PDF (1731KB) ( 363 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To investigate the influence of coupling effect in domino incidents in a petroliferous storage tank area on the propagation of accident, the definitions and connotations of coupling effect in different fields were used for reference, a definition of coupling effect in the domino incidents was given, and the multi-hazard and multi-factor coupling scenarios and a diagram of influence factors of coupling effect were built. Subsequently, the coupling effect of the thermal radiation caused by pool fire in a certain storage tank area was analyzed based on Bayesian network model. And the Netica software was used to analyze the most likely propagation path of the accident caused by pool fire. The results show that probability of domino incidents will increase when the tank is affected by the coupling effect of the multi-thermal radiation, and that protective measures of tank V₂₁ should be seriously taken to prevent the occurrence of domino incidents when pool fire occurs at tank V₁₁.

Research on 24Model based safety management mode for manufacturing enterprises

FU Gui, LI Ya, WANG Xiuming

2017, 27(10): 117-122. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.020

Asbtract ( 165 )

PDF (1509KB) ( 369 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to prevent accidents in manufacturing enterprises, a 24Model based safety management mode for manufacturing enterprises was studied. Firstly, the accident prevention strategy of the current manufacturing enterprises and its shortcomings were summarized. Secondly, the development of 24Model of four stages and its advantages in application to manufacturing enterprises were studied. Finally, a 24Model based safety management mode was put forward for manufacturing enterprises, which integrates safety inspection, accident investigation and safety training. The specific application of the mode was researched by making a study of a certain manufacturing enterprise. The results show that the safety management mode of the manufacturing enterprise based on 24 Model is systematic, sustainable and operable, and it is feasible and effective in the enterprise safety management.

Relationships between perception of loss, safety attitude and enterprises' work safety behavior

LIU Suxia, ZHU Yuqing, MEI Qiang

2017, 27(10): 123-129. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.021

Asbtract ( 159 )

PDF (1491KB) ( 380 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To regulate enterprises' work safety behavior, a conceptual model was built based on KAP theory and the theory of safety management, for analyzing the relationships between perception of expected accident loss, safety attitude and enterprises' work safety behavior. Influence mechanisms of perception of expected accident loss, safety attitude on enterprises' work safety behavior were analyzed deeply. Through the data collection of 867 valid questionnaires of 33 items, the model was verified by using factor analysis and SEM. The results show that perception of expected accident loss and safety attitude have significant direct positive effects on enterprises' work safety behavior respectively, that perception of expected accident loss is positively correlated with safety attitude, and there is a positive interaction between the perception of expected accident indirect loss and the safety attitude when they affect enterprises' work safety behavior, and that an effective way to improve the level of enterprises' work safety is improving the enterprise policy makers' cognition of the expected accident loss and improving their safety attitude.

Analysis of risk factors and countermeasures for metro shield construction

LIU Wen, ZHAO Tingsheng, ZHANG Yajing, CHEN Yukun, ZHOU Wei

2017, 27(10): 130-136. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.022

Asbtract ( 157 )

PDF (2189KB) ( 325 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to prevent the metro tunnel construction safety accidents, a clustering analysis was made for the cluster was established data on both 57 accidents and 186 near misses using the by ISODATA clustering algorithm. Safety risk rules and management countermeasures were explored for metro shield construction by means of making a comparison between quantification results of the relative risk possibility of the clusters. The results show that the complicated geologic conditions, improper soil reinforcement and drainage at the launching-arrival stage are the most dangerous risk factors in metro shield construction, and that to improve the safety management performance of metro shield construction, the safety production technology of construction should be used at the launching-arrival stage.

System dynamics model for electric construction project risk management

GAO Chongyang, SHAO Hui, BI Haipu, ZHANG Zhipeng, SONG Xingshuai

2017, 27(10): 137-143. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.023

Asbtract ( 214 )

PDF (1950KB) ( 352 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to effectively reduce hidden dangers with electric construction projects and improve system safety, the paper was aimed at applying the SD method to risk management of electric construction projects. First of all, from the perspective of safety benefit, the total safety system of electric construction project was divided into five subsystems relating to human behavior, equipment and facilities, safety input, safety management and environment, factors affecting subsytems' safety were identified, an SD model was built for risk factors in electric construction projects, and effective risk factors control methods were explored. Then, Vensim_PLE software was applied to simulate initial data on a certain SINOPEC electric construction project in 2017, AHP was used to optimize the safety input scheme. The results show that the safety benefit of safety input has hysteresis, reasonable proportions of safety investment can improve project safety benefit, and that scientific coordination of project engineering quantities, the number of staff and safety input can effectively reduce accident probability and improve production efficiency.

Building a model for evaluation of safety economic benefits of scenic spot

WEN Yan, ZHENG Xiangmin

2017, 27(10): 144-148. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.024

Asbtract ( 145 )

PDF (1475KB) ( 239 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To reveal safety input-output relationship for scenic spots, a model for evaluation of safety economic benefits of scenic spots was built on the basis of the theory of C-D production function. For building the model, variables of safety economic contribution rate including safety fund's economic contribution rate, safety labor's economic contribution rate and safety technique's economic contribution rate were introduced, and the ratio method was used to quantify the safety economic benefits. The model was tested by using data obtained from a certain scenic spot in China. The results show that this model can satisfy the basic requirement of the quantitative analysis of safety economic benefits of scenic spots, and that the safety economic benefits of the scenic spot are greater than 1 proving that the safety investment has an important contribution to increasing the total economic output of the scenic spot.

Research on model of safety benefit allocation for special equipment under multiple co-governance

ZHANG Shiyue, DING Rijia, DING Wenjun

2017, 27(10): 149-154. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.025

Asbtract ( 143 )

PDF (1455KB) ( 272 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to ensure the healthy development of special equipment safety management, to promote the formation of a pluralistic governance pattern, this paper used the idea of cooperative game to research the distribution pattern of special equipment safety benefit. In this paper, through the establishment of special equipment GMDS governance subjects, building safety output models, safety input cost models and safety non-benefit models respectively, safety benefit models of GDMS subjects were obtained. Based on this, the Shapley value method was used to explore the safety benefit allocation function of each governance subject, and the allocation model was verified.The results show that the safety benefits obtained by diversification of the main cooperation in the management of special equipment are much higher than those obtained by the individual governance, and that the cooperative game can achieve the optimization of safety benefits and fairness, and thus arouse enthusiasm of the main subjects for the special equipment management.

Research on prediction of integrity risk grade of sour gas well

ZHANG Zhi, HE Yu, HUANG Xi, HE Hanping, BAO Hongzhi

2017, 27(10): 155-161. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.026

Asbtract ( 127 )

PDF (1792KB) ( 322 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to ensure the safe and efficient production of sour gas wells, a model was built for predicting sour gas wells integrity risk level on the basis of PCA and BP neural network method. Before building the model, a bow-tie model was built for identifying integrity failure risk factors. The factors were quantified by fuzzy evaluation method. Comprehensive indexes were extracted by PCA. An application of the prediction model was made to 5 sour gas wells. The results show that the input data of BP neural network can be reduced from 28 to 4 by PCA, and the prediction accuracy of risk grade is higher than that of BP neural network without PCA, and that the model built on the basis of combination of PCA and BP neural network can be used to identify the risk factors of integrity failure in sour gas well development and improve the risk grade prediction technology of sour gas wells.

Study on assessment of urban safety risks management and control system for preventing particularly serious accidents and major accidents

YANG Wentao, ZHANG Yue, XU Shuai, GAO Jindong

2017, 27(10): 162-167. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.027

Asbtract ( 220 )

PDF (1505KB) ( 319 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

To prevent particularly serious accidents and major accidents in urban areas and have a proper assessment of the operation of the urban safety risks management and control system, this article first selects major factors affecting the urban safety management to set indicators of such a system by using the AHP and the grey correlation method. Following that, a risk control judgment matrix is established to define the weights of different indicators and have a dynamic evaluation of the system based on actual cases. Finally, the article takes the operation of the safety risks management and control system for preventing particularly serious accidents and major accidents in a coastal city as an example to illustrate the effectiveness of the above indicators. The result shows that the indicators set in this article can help to find out the overall performance of the urban safety risks management and control system, pin down the vulnerable points and define the key factors in future safety management.

Risk factors identification of containerization dangerous goods on board

LIU Mingming, HU Shenping, GUO Yunlong, GAO Chunyuan, XU Ling

2017, 27(10): 168-174. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.10.028

Asbtract ( 313 )

PDF (1707KB) ( 244 )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

In order to ensure the safe transportation of dangerous goods on board, a risk factor identification model was built for containerized dangerous goods on board based on the degree of combination importance by using both the FTA and the level importance analysis methods. For building the model, the accident risk factors were identified according to the analysis of the typical accident cases of dangerous goods on board, a fault tree of dangerous cargo transportation was established, and the key factors of risk were calculated by the critical probability importance. The hierarchical importance degrees of the factors were analyzed by using the hierarchical importance analysis model of the key factors, and then the key factors leading to risk were got. The results show that there are 6 key factors such as improper packing, excessively high ambient temperature and bumps during transportation, and that both improper packing and excessively high ambient temperature as the lowest sensitivity factors have a greater impact on the probability of accidents during cargo transportation.

Table of Content