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Table of Content

    28 March 2018, Volume 28 Issue 3
    Safety Social Science
    Research on talent training mode for safety engineering major at universities
    TONG Ruipeng
    2018, 28(3):  1-6.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.001
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    In order to promote matching the training mode of safety engineering professionals with social needs and personal growth, this research established a training mode to achieve the social requirement and all-round development of students based on the concept of OBE for safety engineering talents in colleges. The training mode was developed by analyzing the current situation and the development trend of safety engineering specialty, complying with the requirements of international engineering education professional certification, double first-class discipline construction and Chinese characteristics education system. The training mode provided solutions to talent training goals, graduation requirements, index point, curriculum system, teaching requirements, teaching content, and educational evaluation. The results reveal that the guidelines and requirements of talent training for safety engineering major in colleges are the international engineering education professional certification, double first-class discipline construction and Chinese characteristics education system, and that satisfying the social needs and promoting the all-round development of students are the criteria for formulating the training scheme of safety engineering professionals in colleges.
    Safety Livelihood Science
    Development of safety psychological capital scale for coal miners
    WANG Jing, LI Hongxia, TIAN Shuicheng, YUAN Xiaofang
    2018, 28(3):  7-12.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.002
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    In order to measure the safety psychological capital level of coal miners in China, on the basis of LUTHANS's psychological capital questionnaire(PCQ-24), a scale of psychological safety capital for coal miners in Chinese context was developed. For developing the scale, 6 dimensions of miners' safety psychological capital were identified, including safety self-efficacy, hope, optimism, resilience, self-regulating and calmness. By using the selection of subject items, reliability analysis and exploratory factor analysis, 28 items were obtained for inclusion in the scale. A large sample test was carried out for the scale and a confirmatory factor analysis was made by using AMOS17.0. It is concluded that the scale can be used to measure the level of safety psychological capital of miners, and the measurement results provide the basis for taking measures for improving the safety psychological capital level and preventing unhealthy psychology of miners.
    Research on group psychology in major accidents
    KANG Liangguo, HUANG Rui, WU Chao
    2018, 28(3):  13-18.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.003
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    To have a comprehensive understanding of the group psychological changing process after major accidents and to provide a theoretical basis for public safety incident prevention and control, a systematic research on group psychology of major accidents was conducted. Firstly, from the theoretical level, the formation process of group psychology in major accidents was discussed based on the connotation and attribute of major accidents, group and group psychology, and the psychological impact of major accidents on group was analyzed. Then, the types of group psychology in major accidents were concluded, and a tree model was built for group psychological events in major accidents based on development stages of major accidents. Finally, according to the attributes of public safety incident, a system of factors influencing group psychology in major accidents was put forward. The results show that the stages of a major accident are different from each other in their influences on the group psychology, and that the influencing factors of the major accident on group psychology mainly include enterprise factors, triggering factors, incident crowds and forming stages.
    Safety Systematology
    Application of QGA-RFR model in prediction of height of water flowing fractured zone
    SHAO Liangshan, ZHOU Yu
    2018, 28(3):  19-24.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.004
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    To predict the height of the water flowing fractured zone of the mine roof accurately, the RFR algorithm was applied to determine main factors of the height of water flowing fractured zone in mining face. With the help of QGA, the most superior combination of two key parameters-splitting attribute value and the decision tree number-in RFR was ensured, and a prediction model based on QGA-RFR was built. The 124 groups of water flowing fractured zone measured data were brought into the QGA-RFR model for training and prediction, and a prediction result comparison was made between the model and other models like GA-RFR, RFR, BP and SVM, etc. The experimental results show that the most superior combination of two parameters for the QGA-RFR model is (5,350), the prediction error under the parameters is only 0.113 8, that compared with GA-RFR, RFR, BP and SVM model, the QGA-RFR model have a smaller value of mean absolute percentage error (0.037 63), mean square error (2.129) and the maximum relative error value (0.055 06), which reveal the QGA-RFR model have a better fitting effect.
    PSO-SVM based model for prediction of sandy soil liquefaction
    MAO Zhiyong, HUANG Chunjuan, LU Shichang
    2018, 28(3):  25-30.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.005
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    To improve the accuracy and reliability of sand liquefaction prediction, according to its characteristics,7 factors including the seismic intensity, groundwater level, standard penetration number, average particle size, non-uniform coefficient, overburden effective pressure and dynamic shear stress ratio were selected as a basis for discrimination. PSO was used to optimize the parameters of SVM, and a PSO-SVM model was built for predicting sand liquefaction. Fifty samples were chosen to train the model. The model was used to predict 14 test samples and all the samples were returned to the test. The prediction accuracy was 100%. The result shows that the PSO-SVM model is better in classification and higher in efficiency in solving the problem of sand liquefaction prediction.
    Study on diffusion law of leakage gas in soil-atmosphere
    LIU Aihua, CHEN Ke, HUANG Jian, ZHANG Nan, CHEN Jieyun, XU Wenbin
    2018, 28(3):  31-37.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.006
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    This study intends to provide a more reliable theoretical basis for the laying of gas pipeline, parallel pipeline with gas pipeline and emergency-management decisions following accidental gas leaks. The porosity and the resistance coefficient of soil which are the key parameters of governing equations in soil were obtained by using the cutting ring method and a self-made experimental platform respectively. A physical model was built for leakage of gas from a buried gas pipeline. Effects of buried depth and leakage aperture on diffusion process of leakage gas in soil-atmosphere were investigated using a three-dimensional CFD model. The results show that the area of the dangerous zone in soil decreases first and increases afterwards with the increase of the buried depth, that the area of the dangerous zone increases obviously with the increase of cross-section of leakage aperture, that gas is easy to form accumulation in the ground of the street valley, appropriate buried depth is an important factor to reduce the area of the dangerous zone, that the parallel pipeline having a coupling danger with the existing gas pipeline should be laid along both sides of the street separately and that the cavity of the street is the most crucial area for emergency-management following accidental gas leaks.
    Research on rear passenger injury in vehicle oblique crash
    ZHANG Guanghui, ZHANG Daowen, XIAO Lingyun, RAN Qilin, ZHANG Peng
    2018, 28(3):  38-43.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.007
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    In order to study the characteristics of the rear left passenger injury in car impacting a rigid barrier wall at 60° oblique angle, a finite element model was built for the car, the rigid barrier wall and the dummy by Presys. After calculating by Ls-Dyna, Presys finite element software was used to analyze the left rear occupant damage at 30, 40 and 50 km/h. The results show that with the increase of impact speed,the acceleration on the head and the force on the neck increase, that when the impact speed is 40 per hour, the dummy head Y-acceleration is the highest, and that there is a positive correlation between both the chest acceleration and the amplification of the acceleration increase and the impact speed.
    Simulation experimental study on fine dust distribution over roadway section under different wind speeds
    WANG Baoqing, ZHANG Chao, LIU Jian
    2018, 28(3):  44-49.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.008
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    To reduce harm of fine dust and realize effective control and prevention of dust on the operation site, experiments were carried out in rectangle and arch simulation roadways. The grid point distribution method was adopted to lay out the testing points and the method of adjusting the wind speed was adopted. Besides, a numerical simulation analysis was carried out by virtue of Gambit modeling and Fluent. The result indicates that when the dust source sprays dust at a speed of 10 mg/s, the dust particles disperse freely and the dust concentration on the axis of the roadway is less than that on the edge of the wall surface, when the wind speed is l m/s, the concentration on the axis and that on the edge of the surface are generally the same, when the dust particles disperse freely, the viscous effect of the roadway wall dominates the dispersion and distribution of dust and the wind speed is the main factor affecting the floating status of the fine dust, and that the ways of reducing the concentration of the fine dust in the roadway mainly include reasonable design of wind speed in the environment, improvement of the smoothness of the wall surface of the roadway and reduction of the viscous effect of the wall surface for the fine dust.
    Safety system dimension reduction theoretic research and application
    HUA Jiamin, WU Chao, HUANG Lang
    2018, 28(3):  50-55.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.009
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    In order to solve complex problems in safety high-dimension system, enrich the research methods for safety system, a systematic research on safety dimension reduction techniques was conducted. Firstly, the complexity and high dimension of the safety system were analyzed, and the advantages of the safety system for dimension reduction were analyzed. Then, a dimension reduction theory of safety system was proposed, and its connotation and dimension reduction steps were analyzed. Finally, the safety system dimension reduction theory was applied to the analysis of typical accident cases to verify the empirical effect of the dimension reduction theory of the safety system. The results show that the dimension reduction theory of safety system specifically includes the connotation and method of "data support" and "no data support", and that the application of the theory is feasible and practical.
    Safety Science of Engineering and Technology
    Numerical simulation study on response temperature of temperature detectors for building using decentralized fire
    TIAN Shuicheng, ZHANG Chengzhen
    2018, 28(3):  56-61.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.010
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    The paper was aimed at finding out the value of the temperature response of the temperature detector fixed on the ceiling of a building using decentralized fire, and providing a reference for the selection and setting of the temperature detector in a building using decentralized fire. A model of the building using decentralized fire was created by PyroSim software. 15 numerical simulations were carried out at the HRR of 1, 5, 10, 20, 30 kW/m2 and the ceiling height of 3, 5, 7 m, the data monitored by the thermocouples in the model are processed, analyzed and fitted. Finally, after considering the maximum temperature in a building and the safety temperature, a formula was worked out for calculating the alarm temperature for the detector in decentralized fire building. The results show that there is a uniform temperature distribution in the ceiling plane of a building using decentralized fire, and there is a obvious quadratic function relation between the temperature and the HRR, that there is a negative correlation between the temperature in the ceiling plane and the ceiling height, and that the temperature variation decreases with the decrease of the HRR at the same height difference.
    Study on multi-objective programming model for locating fire stations in chemical industry park
    GUAN Wenling, ZHANG Mengjun, DONG Chengjie, XIE Jibiao
    2018, 28(3):  62-67.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.011
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    For the sake of improving the emergency response capability of chemical industry parks, a multi-objective location model of fire stations was built in this paper. The basic factors influencing the fire stations location were analyzed, including the economic factor, time factor, distance factor and coverage factor. The risks in a typical chemical industry park were assessed by means of the value of potential loss of life. The constraint conditions of fire stations location were established in combination with influence factors based on the risk assessment. Then the location of fire stations was realized. The effectiveness of the model have been verified by a case. The result shows that the model can consider both the potential loss of life and the factors affecting the location of fire stations, and therefor realize the fire stations location and improve the fire safety system of the park.
    Simulation of evacuation from offshore drilling platform in fire
    WANG Yanfu, LI Biao, QIN Tao, GONG Xiaofeng
    2018, 28(3):  68-73.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.012
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    In order to study factors influencing emergency evacuation from an offshore drilling platform in fire, simulations were carried out of evacuation from a drilling platform in South China Sea using Fire Dynamics Simulator software. Temperature field, smoke layer height, visibility and thermal radiation effects as a function were observed. The influences of exit familiarity rate, reaction time and moving speed on the personnel evacuation were analyzed using the Evacuation Module(EVAC). Pathfinder software was used to simulate the flow rates of evacuees' through and usage of the stairways during evacuation. The results show that for evacuees in fire, the northeast stairway is affected most severely by fire and the southwestern stairway is the safest, that the moving speed, exit familiarity rate and reaction time have a greater impact on the overall evacuation efficiency, and that in the evacuation process, the southeast stairway usage is the highest, followed by the southwest stairway usage.
    PCA-AdaBoost model for predicting coal spontaneous combustion in caving zone with imbalanced data
    ZHAO Linlin, WEN Guofeng, SHAO Liangshan
    2018, 28(3):  74-78.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.013
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    In order to improve the prediction accuracy of coal spontaneous combustion in caving zone under imbalanced data, after taking O2 concentration etc. as factors, and the principal components of factors were obtained by PCA, a PCA-AdaBoost prediction model of coal spontaneous combustion was built, which took the principal components as inputs and combustion situations as outputs. Taking Xuandong 2nd coal mine as the research object, the model was trained through twenty groups of training samples, and evaluated by the area under the curve of receiver operating characteristic curve. The trained model was used to predict fifty groups of test samples. A prediction result comparison was made between the model and the PSO-SVM model. The results show that based on imbalanced data sets, three principal componets are extracted with the 86.831% information of six original factors by PCA, both the correlations between the factors and the dimensionality have been reduced, that temperature and CH4 concentration have a greater impact than other factors, that the prediction results of PCA-AdaBoost model accord with the actual situation, and that the model is superior to the PSO-SVM model in terms of prediction accuracy and convergence speed.
    Experimental study on gas explosion shock wave propagation in different types of pipelines
    ZHAO Dan, QI Hao, PAN Jingtao, JIA Jinzhang
    2018, 28(3):  79-83.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.014
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    In order to explore the propagation law of gas explosion shock waves in different types of pipeline,using the pipes of "L" type,"T" type and cross type to simulate the underground roadway for experiments of gas explosion,which using gas combustion explosion test system.Pressure values at different positions in the pipe are detected,pressure variation rule of gas explosion shock wave in the front and rear position of turns and bifurcation structures of different pipe types is studied.The experimental results show that the pressure peak value is the highest on the lateral wall of "L" pipe bend.The bifurcation structure of "T" type and cross pipe can effectively improve the pressure build-up,but the degree of improvement for cross-shaped pipe is less than "T" pipe.The damping effect of shock wave pressure and speed on "L" type,"T" type and cross type pipes is gradually enhanced.
    Study on double coupling algorithm based model for coal and gas outburst prediction
    FU Hua, FENG Shengcheng , GAO Zhenbiao , YANG Yugang
    2018, 28(3):  84-89.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.015
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    In order to improve the accuracy of coal and gas outburst prediction, a double coupling algorithm based model was built on the basis of combining the IsoMap algorithm with the coupling method (DDICS-WLS-SVM). The IsoMap algorithm is used to excavate the low-dimensional essence features of coal and gas outburst, followed by usage of DDICS algorithm to optimize the regularization parameter and the Gaussian kernel parameter of WLS-SVM. Finally, the low-dimensional essence features are extracted as the input to the prediction model which subsequently outputs the intensity of coal and gas. The results show that the relative errors in prediction by the model are not greater than 2.63%, and that the model is better than both the PSO-SVM and LS-SVM in prediction accuracy.
    A LIP model considering disruption scenarios and fortification for relief supplies reserve bases
    LI Zhi, LI Zhengxiang, ZHOU Yufeng, QIU Hanguang
    2018, 28(3):  90-95.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.016
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    For the sake of improving the relief supplies support ability, optimization of relief supplies reserve bases network design was studied. A LIP model, considering disruption scenarios, fortification, capacity constraints and purchase discount, was built for relief supplies reserve bases on the basis of traditional RFLP and LIP researches. A NSGA-II based on niche technique was proposed to solve the model. A numerical example of relief supplies reserve bases construction for earthquake disaster indicates that a Pareto front solution set can be obtained solving the model by designed algorithm, from which the decision-makers may choose optimal decision schemes according to the actual needs.
    GM-RBF model based error compensation for prediction of submarine pipeline corrosion
    LUO Zhengshan, YUAN Hongwei
    2018, 28(3):  96-101.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.017
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    In order to accurately predict the residual life of submarine oil and gas pipelines subject to corrosion, a GM-RBF neural network corrosion rate prediction model based on error compensation principle was built. Firstly, a gray model (GM) of corrosion rate was established, and the gray prediction value of corrosion rate was taken as the input to radial basis (RBF) neural network, and the residual was taken as the output. The neural network was trained to obtain the error compensator. The new grey prediction value was compensated, and the final prediction value of the corrosion rate was obtained. The annual corrosion depth was calculated according to the prediction results, and the residual service life of the pipeline was calculated in combination with the residual strength criterion. The effectiveness of the model was verified by using the data on a certain subsea pipeline take as an example. The results show that the relative error of single-use GM model prediction is 17.48%, the relative error predicted by GM-RBF model is 6.37%, and the remaining life of the pipeline is predicted to be 5.4 years, and that the GM-RBF model improves the prediction accuracy and can make a better description of the trend in the corrosion development.
    A review of researches on optimization ofhazardous materials transportation route
    XIN Chunlin, MENG Jia, ZHANG Jianwen, FENG Qianru
    2018, 28(3):  102-107.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.018
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    In order to make the hazardous material transportation problem closer to the reality, the relevant theories and research methods are discussed in this paper. From the perspective of transportation method, this article summarizes the significance of hazardous material transportation in single-type transportation, multi-modal transportation and location-path optimization and other aspects of the results and research progress, analyzes the differences between China and other countries in key factors selection and modeling and design algorithms. At the same time, the paper presents the deficiency of existing literature and propose the next research direction. The next step can be studied from the perspective of time-varying network and bounded rationality. The results show that single-model transportation research is developed from single objective to multi-objective optimization problem, and multi-modal transport research from multi-modal transport to multi-modal location-routing transport problem, and that the research methods also vary from using exact algorithm to heuristics or evolution algorithm. The nest step can be studied from the perspective of time-varying network and bounded rationality.
    GERT-MC based analysis of transmission of failure risks in aircraft main landing gear system
    TAO Qian, LI Chao, LI Zhengxin, ZHANG Yu, CHEN Xiangyang
    2018, 28(3):  108-113.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.019
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    A model of failure risk transmission based on GERT-MC was built to solve the problems of randomness and interaction between failure risks in AMLGS. The series and parallel and loop structures of GERT were simplified, and the MC simulation method was used to design a simulation solving algorithm for the model. System risk and key links of failure risk were identified exactly for an AMLGS taken as an example. A comparison between the analytical and simulation methods showed that the model is effective in quantitative analysis and control of transmission of failure risks in an AMLGS.
    A flow-solid coupling model considering matrix methane seepage for coal methane extraction
    LI Sheng, ZHANG Haohao, FAN Chaojun, BI Huijie, YANG Zhenhua, TAO Mei
    2018, 28(3):  114-119.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.020
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    In order to more accurately reflect the migration process of coal methane in the process of extraction, it was assumed that the coal seam was a kind of elastic medium with dual porosity and dual permeability, and a fluid-solid coupling model considering matrix methane seepage for extraction was built on the basis of considering the action of matrix methane seepage and coupling effects of groundwater and methane adsorption/desorption characteristics, coal rock deformation and permeability evolution. Numerical simulations of coal methane extraction process were carried out, and the influences of migration law and matrix methane seepage were analyzed. The results show that there is a negative correlation between both the pressure of matrix methane and that of fracture methane and time, and the difference between them increases first and then decreases, that under the simulated conditions, the matrix methane seepage only accounts for 0.5% of the amount of methane flowing into fracture, that matrix methane seepage influences both the methane production capacity and the reservoir pressure, and that both methane production and reservoir pressure drop predicted by the dual porosity and dual permeability model considering the matrix methane seepage are less than those by the dual porosity and single permeability model.
    Research on time series characteristics of gas concentration at working face and application of them to early warning
    YANG Yanguo, MU Yongliang, QIN Hongyan
    2018, 28(3):  120-125.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.021
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    For the purpose of the dynamic and real-time early warning of abnormal gas emission, the probability distribution of the time series of gas concentration at the working face was analyzed. The joint normal test of Shapiro-Wilk and Lilliefors was used to deeply excavate the distribution characteristics of time series of gas concentration at the working face. Taking a driving face in Pansan coal mine as an example, a real-time normal test of the time series of gas concentration during fault crossing was carried out. The research results show that when the factors influencing gas emission are similar in effect and none of them plays a decisive role, the time series of gas concentration is normally distributed, that when disobeying the normal distribution, the fault has a significant influence on the gas emission at the working face, which may lead to disasters, that through the real-time normal test of the time series of gas concentration in the working face, the gas emission state can be identified, and that the distribution characteristics of the time series of gas concentration can be taken as the basis of the early warning, which can play a helpful role in the prediction and early warning of gas disasters.
    Safety evaluation and vibration control of transmission tower-line system subjected to cable rupture
    YANG Fan, CHEN Bo, OUYANG Yiqin, YANG Deng
    2018, 28(3):  126-131.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.022
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    To reduce the cable rupture events of transmission tower-line systems in a severe service environment, a analytical model was built for the transmission tower-line system and a nonlinear computational method was developed for accurately simulating the contact effects in cable rupture event and evaluating the structural safety status. A method was developed for controlling vibration of the tower under cable rupture by installing viscous fluid dampers on the tower. The direct observations indicate that the dynamic impacting effects of the transmission tower-line system under cable rupture are obvious, which can be effectively suppressed by using viscous fluid dampers, and that the vibration reduction rates for the peak displacement, velocity and acceleration are 15%, 35% and 60% respectively.
    Comprehensive inspection and analysis of trend in both settlement and deformation of railway subgrade
    JU Xinghua, YANG Xiaohua, ZHANG Shasha
    2018, 28(3):  132-137.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.023
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    In order to comprehensively understand the settlement and deformation process of subgrade, on the basis of the field monitoring data on subgrade settlement, a new scheme was designed: application of V/S analysis, M-K test and SR test to determination of the overall deformation stage and subgrade deformation tendency. The effectiveness of the scheme was demonstrated by the data on a section of Jinghu railway.
    Influences of multiple factors on pressure of RRI system in nuclear power plant
    GAO Chang, YUAN Jingkai, ZHANG Kun, WANG Yong, ZOU Jinqiang
    2018, 28(3):  138-143.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.024
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    In order to solve the problem of frequent opening of safety valve when switching between different series of RRI system in nuclear power plant, a certain nuclear power plant in China was taken as research object, and the Flowmaster software was used to simulate the pressure fluctuation in the process of switching between different series of cooling water system. Relations between pressure and influent factors, such as closing valve time, bypass flow rate of the pump, the opening time interval between the control valve and the pump, were studied. The results of simulation are verified. The results show that increasing the bypass flow of cooling water pump or opening the control valves before the equipment cooling water pump reaching the rated speed, can effectively reduce the pressure fluctuation when startup the pump, that increasing the closing time of control valves on the cold side of EAS heat exchanger can restrain the water hammer phenomenon during the instance of valve closing, and that the related commissioning results verify the conclusion of the simulation.
    Preparation and properties of a kind of accelerating early strength delayed expansion mine sealing material
    MA Mengxiao, LIU Jian, JI Xiaoli , WU Fen, LUO Qi, ZHANG Chao
    2018, 28(3):  144-148.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.025
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    In view of that conventional mine cement sealing materials cause shrinkage and conventional expansion agents cause the decreasing strength in the hardening process, a kind of accelerating early strength delayed expansion mine sealing material was prepared. The components of the material are silicate cement, aluminum powder in microcapsules formed by polyacrylamide, water sodium aluminate, sodium chloride, sodium sulfate, triethanolamine, and 2-Acrylamido-2-methyl-1-propanesulfonic acid(AMPS). The influences of admixtures on the properties of the material in early strength and expansion were studied by means of X ray diffraction (XRD) analysis and scanning electron microscopy(SEM). The results show that the compressive strength of the material after hydration for 1 day reaches 4.2 MPa and 3 days reaches 6.7 MPa, the delay time of expansion is 4 h and the inflation rate reaches 19.32% when the mass ratio of sodium chloride to cement is 0.5% ,sodium sulfate 0.5%, triethanolamine 0.05%, AMPS 1%, sodium aluminate 1%, and aluminum type microcapsule 0.1%, which satisfys the need of strength and expansion.
    Weight-variation-fuzzy model for assessing wear risk of backfilling pipeline and its application
    WANG Enjie, ZHAO Guoyan, WU Hao, LIANG Weizhang, LI Zhenyang
    2018, 28(3):  149-154.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.026
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    To accurately assess the wear risk of backfilling pipeline,a variable-weight-fuzzy multidimensional evaluation model was built on the basis of the variable weights theory, set pair analysis and triangular fuzzy number theory. For building the model, an index system for risk assessment was established and the weights of evaluation samples were determined by variable weights theory. Set pair analysis was used to construct a multi-contact number expression of the evaluation index and triangular fuzzy number was introduced to express the interval representation of the otherness coefficient. The number of integrated connections was calculated to get the risk assessment level. The validity of the model was verified by an example and the wear risk of the backfilling pipeline in the Sanshandao gold mine was evaluated. The results show that the wear risk grade of the backfilling pipeline is grade Ⅲ (general wear)and the wear risk of the backfilling pipeline is the biggest when the artificial floor is under construction in the Sanshandao gold mine, and that the outcomes of this model are in agreement with the reality and the risk of backfilling pipeline can be assessed from a multidimensional angle.
    Prediction of stope stability based on random forest
    WANG Jie, LUO Zhouquan, QIN Yaguang, ZHAO Shuang
    2018, 28(3):  155-160.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.027
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    In order to prevent stope safety accidents, 10 factors including underground stope's geological structure, burial depth, surrounding rock strength and rock mass quality indexes are selected as the prediction indexes of stope stability, twenty-five groups are selected as training samples from the collected data on actual stope stability to build a random forest model of stope stability prediction and eight sets of test data are used to predict stope stability. A prediction result comparison is made between the model, SVM model and ANN model. The results show that the random forest model has the highest accuracy of the stope stability ratings in the examples, and the second is the SVM model, the ANN model is less accurate, and that by using the random forest model, the stope stability can be determined more effectively.
    Safety Social Engineering Work
    Research on total factor investment in construction safety: a case study in Chongqing
    ZHANG Shilian, WANG Liming, YE Gui, WANG Yuhe
    2018, 28(3):  161-166.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.028
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    In order to improve the efficiency of construction safety investment, time series data on construction safety in Chongqing from 2004 to 2015 were used to estimate the construction safety degree with its improving rate, the capital and labor input with their growth rate, and calculate the contribution degree of the total factor investment to construction safety based on the Solow model. The results show that when the construction safety capital and labor inputs are increasing, the construction safety degree of Chongqing is declining, that the contribution of total factor investment to construction safety in Chongqing is low, that the interaction is weak between construction safety capital, labor and total factor investments, and that the large funds and labor investment fail to improve organically construction safety.
    Public Safety
    Fishbone air route network modeling and invulnerability analysis
    WANG Xinglong, WANG Kuan, ZHAO Mo
    2018, 28(3):  167-172.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.029
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    In order to maintain flight safety and improve the efficiency of air route operations in the event that severe weather, military activities or other factors may have a significant, negative effect on the safety or the efficiency, a fishbone directional weighted air route network model was built based on the complex network theory for a single complete route and its connections. Degree, weight, betweeness were identified as the indicators of network invulnerability. The characteristics of the indexes and the invulnerability of the network were analyzed for two kinds of attacks, a deliberate nodes deletion attack and a random nodes deletion attack. Then, the route A593 was selected as an example to verify the model. The results show that the directed weighted fishbone air route network has a negative matching feature with larger-degree nodes prefer to connect smaller-degree nodes, and that the invulnerability of an air route network to a deliberate nodes deletion attack according to the degree, weight and betweeness is lower than its invulnerability to a random nodes deletion attack.
    Research on dynamic LAP model of emergency logistics public-private collaboration in aftermath of earthquake
    SONG Yinghua, NING Jingjing, LYU Wei, DU Lijing
    2018, 28(3):  173-178.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.030
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    In view of the severe shortage of emergency materials in the disaster area in the aftermath of earthquake and on the basis of perspective of fairness and efficiency, the paper constructed a two-layer dynamic LAP model that integrated multi-period,multi-objective and multi-material logistics resources with the greatest satisfaction, the lowest total cost, and the least personnel loss, so as to meet the different emergency needs of multiple subjects. The upper level of the model was aimed to maximize the satisfaction rate of commodities, while the lower level was aimed to maximize the time satisfaction rate. Then, a genetic algorithm was designed to solve the optimization problem. Finally, taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example, the model and the algorithm were verified. The result indicates that the model can be used to realize multi-material dynamic LAP decision-making under the coordination of public and private logistics in the aftermath earthquake, taking into account fairness and efficiency.
    A PT based model for dynamic adjusting emergency material demand
    REN Bin, ZHU Changfeng, ZHONG Xiao
    2018, 28(3):  179-184.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.031
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    In order to guarantee the rationality of demand prediction for emergency materials, post-disaster uncertain factors and makers' subjective factors were examined fully, and a PT based model was built for dynamic adjusting emergency material demand. Firstly, the decision maker's perceived values were divided into two sorts, a valid sort of perceived value (in scheme) and an invalid sort, with the decision maker's psychological expectations as a dynamic reference point. Then, by determining the value function and the probability weight of the scenario, the comprehensive prospect value of the scheme can be calculated, and the prediction scheme of the emergency material demand corresponding to the minimum prospect value can be obtained. Finally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out, of the prospect value of the scheme to risk preference, risk aversion coefficient and the perceived probability coefficients of both benefit and loss. The effectiveness of the model was demonstrated by the data on a certain seismic disaster. The results show that the model based on the dynamic change of disaster situation is more suitable for use in a situation after disaster, which helps to find out the best prediction scheme, and can improve the decision-making quality and rescue efficiency .
    Experiment study on super high-rise building evacuation
    FANG Zhiming, XU Qingfeng, SONG Weining, CHEN Lingzhu, LENG Yubing
    2018, 28(3):  185-190.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.03.032
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    In order to reveal the characteristics of super high-rise building evacuation, a vertical evacuation experiment was carried out in the Shanghai Tower, in which the testees walked down from the 126th floor to the first floor.The results show that to evacuate downwardly 124 layers (573.82 m), the shortest evacuation time is less than 20 min, the average evacuation time is (36±6.04)min, the average vertical evacuation speed is (0.287±0.080)m/s, and the vertical evacuation speed under congested condition is (0.248 ±0.034)m/s, and that congestion, gender, physical strength and age are the key factors influencing the super high-rise building evacuation.