China Safety Science Journal

Research on evolution of risk of tailings dam-break in lifecycle

ZHANG Yuanyuan, YANG Kai

2017, 27(7): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.001

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To study the evolution of dam collapse risk and prevent dam failure effectively, a dam collapse risk flow chart was establishes for the life cycle including survey design, construction and operation phases. On the basis of a certain tailings dam for ardealite tailings, the risk flow chart was used to reveal the dynamic evolution characteristics of life-cycle dam-break risk. Effects a given enterprise risk early-warning value and a given risk investment scheme can have on the dam-break risk were also investigated. Results show that the risk of the overall dam collapse increases over time, that at the stage of survey design, the risk increases linearly between 40 and 55 months, and the risk rate changes parabolically, that the dam-break risk increases step-by-step at construction stage, while during the operation phase, the risk of dam-break rises wave upon wave and reaches the maximum at the 60th month, that the corporate risk warning value has a significant impact on the risk prediction of dam, and that the increase in risk investment at the survey design stage is helpful to reduce and control the dam risk.

System dynamics simulation model for psychological crisis of civil aviation pilot

PAN Dan, LUO Fan

2017, 27(7): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.002

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Psychological crisis simulation was carried out for civil aviation pilots in order to explore the formation mechanism of pilot psychological crisis. Pilot psychological crisis causation factors and mitigation measures were identified by using the method of documentary analysis and investigation. Pilot psychological crisis warning level and threshold were defined by using the expert consultation method. Pilot psychological crisis simulation model was built by SD. Results show that warning condition of pilot psychological crisis , life stress and physiological decease in the baseline scenario are severe, that warning condition of pilot work pressure is not serious. The most effective measures to relieve psychological crisis, work pressure, life pressure and physiological disease are respectively implementing employee assistance program(EAP), improving working environment, enhancing exercise and enhancing treatment, and that the model can be used to realize dynamically monitoring civil aviation pilot psychological status and warning in time.

Improved CPT based analysis of change in miners' HVB

LIU Yuxin, LI Jizu, FENG Guorui, KANG Lixun

2017, 27(7): 13-17. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.003

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To explore the change of HVB, from the perspective of evolutionary game, using the improved CPT, a payment matrix was constructed for HVB miners and safety supervisors. By considering interests of both the sides and introducing incentive compensation as variables, a model was built for the influence of reward change on miners' HVB transformation. Taking Wangzhuang coal mine as an example, the Matlab was used to verify the effectiveness of the measures. The results show that the evolutionary game based on improved CPT can effectively explore the process of change of miner HVB,that only when 4 constraint inequalities are met at the same time can the safety level reach the highest level,that under certain conditions, the higher the salary incentive degree is, the lower the probability of miners' violation behavior will be,and that improving the risk perception ability and raising the salary level of miners are helpful to reduce the occurrence of miners' HBV behavior and raise the safety management level of coal mine.

Study on model for accident resulting from multilevel safety information asymmetry

LI Sixian, WU Chao, WANG Bing

2017, 27(7): 18-23. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.004

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To provide an effective basis and method for accident prevention and accident investigation, the model for accident resulting from multilevel safety information asymmetry was studied by using both the information science method and the safety science method. Firstly, based on the general model of information flow, a general model of safety information flow in safety system was constructed. Secondly, the factors causing safety information asymmetry were analyzed, and an accident-causing model of multilevel safety information asymmetry was built. Finally, according to the accident case, the feasibility and reliability of the accident-causing model of multilevel safety information asymmetry were analyzed and verified. The results show that there are three models of accident-causing model of multilevel safety information asymmetry, they are real information source-safety information source information asymmetry model, safety information source-safety information home information asymmetry model, and safety information home-safety information home information asymmetry model, and the accident-causing model of multilevel safety information asymmetry has sufficient practicability and feasibility.

Simulation of possible traffic accident in rainy weather on freeway curve using CA model

PANG Mingbao, REN Boning

2017, 27(7): 24-29. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.005

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The research paper was aimed at reducing traffic accident probability and providing decision support to traffic management and control. After analyzing vehicle force and traffic accident on freeway curve in rainy weather, a CA simulation model was built for one-way two-lane on a rainy day with the possible occurrence of traffic accidents. The model was preliminarily validated by comparing the accident rates obtained by simulation experiments and that in actual statistics. The nonlinear behaviors of traffic flow were discussed and the accident probabilities were calculated via the simulation experiments by setting the different values of variable speed limits (VSL) and road geometric linear parameters. The results of the example show that VSL is a very effective measurein reducing traffic accident probability, particularly in sections with a long curve length and a small curve bend radius. The different speed upper limit values should be set for different rainfall intensities according to simulation results of the proposed CA model and the concrete road parameters.

Research on dynamic numerical simulation of gas emission and coal spontaneous combustion in stope

DONG Ziwen, LIU Aiqun, QI Qingjie, YU Wenhui, TENG Guangping

2017, 27(7): 30-35. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.006

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In order to improve the reliability of numerical simulation of the gas emission and residual coal spontaneous combustion in stope and realize the dynamic simulation calculation, a dynamic multi-physics numerical simulation model was established, which coupling deformation geometry, flow field, temperature field and concentration field by using the software of COMSOL Multiphysics. Effects of advancement of the active face on both the gas emission and the coal spontaneous combustion were studied by means of simulation and measurement. Effectiveness of the dynamic model was verified by comparison between simulation result with result. The relativeerror limits of simulation results are -15%-15%, average relative error is -1.16%-2.67%, for the 6 aspects including average and maximum concentration of gas and CO, concentration of oxygen and spontaneous combustion three zones in goaf, and that the dynamic change trend of numerical simulation results is consistent with that of the field measurement results.

Method of designing operation process for seaport with consideration of operators' behavioral safety

JIN Chun, LIU Yutong

2017, 27(7): 36-41. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.007

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A method of designing operation process was worked out for improving safety in material handling operation at seaports with consideration of human's unsafe behaviors. Unsafe behaviors of operators were analyzed with the fuzzy fault tree method and the Bayesian network method to identify the reasons for the unsafe behaviors. A mathematical model, aiming at minimizing the probability of accidents and satisfying the working time constraint condition, was built for optimizing design of operation process. After this, an actual case based on the operation on a port in northern China was illustrated. The results show that the method can enhance the process safety by reducing about 30% occurrence probability of the top event under the condition that just top 7 unsafe behaviors were considered.

Analysis of influencing factors triggering operator's error in nuclear power plants

LI Pengcheng, CHEN Guohua, ZHANG Li, DAI Licao, JIANG Jianjun

2017, 27(7): 42-47. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.008

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The paper was aimed at identifying PIFs of operators in nuclear power plants and studying interrelationships between them. A relatively comprehensive and specific classification system of PIFs was built from the perspective of organization after literature survey. Important factors impacting operator's error were identified by analysis of human factor events in nuclear power plants. Correlation analyses between PIFs were carried out based on the sample data on human factor events, relationships between PIFs were studied. The results show that the main factors influencing operators are psychological state, quality and capacity of operators belonging to individual factors, and procedures, training and organizational management belonging to contextual factors etc, and that individual factors are influenced by various contextual factors, but the influencing relationships are diffierent between the contextual factor and various individual factors, for example, human psychological state is mainly influenced by person's quality and ability, technical system and so on, and human physiological state is mainly influenced by work environment, team factors and organizational structure and so on.

Evaluation of HVB' inertia degree based on MPHMADM

NIU Lixia, LIU Mouxing, LI Naiwen, HUANG Min

2017, 27(7): 48-52. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.009

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In order to evaluate HVB effectively, driving factors of HVB' inertia degree and their attributes were identified by using the method of MPHMADM from three aspects-the miner individual, organization management and safety degree of working environment. The dynamic hybrid weighted aggregation (DHWA) was used to integrate HVB' inertia degree values for different periods of coal mine. The technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was used to evaluate and sort driving factors of HVB' inertia degree. Example analysis of Daanshan Coal Mine shows that the result of MPHMADM evaluation is consistent with the result of management experts'evaluation, and that HVB intervention should be made from the aspect of organization management, followed by miner individual, and safety degree of working environment .

Study on disturbance effects of gas drainage volume of upper tunnel on air leakage field

CHU Tingxiang, LI Pin, TENG Fei

2017, 27(7): 53-58. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.010

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In order to master the disturbance effects of the gas drainage volume of upper tunnel on air leakage field, the actual conditions of 13190 working face in Yima Gengcun Coal Mine was taken as an example, the rules of the air leakage were analyzed by means of numerical simulation and in-suit measurement. Firstly, the leakage flow field was solved by numerical simulation under the condition of upper tunnel gas drainage. Secondly, according to the tracer gas measured, the results of the simulation and the measured results were analyzed, and the reliability of the simulation was verified. Finally, the leakage flow distributions under different drainage volumes were analyzed. The results show that the air leakage flow into the gob is characterized by both three-dimensional migration and a source and two sink. With the gradual increasing of upper tunnel drainage volume, the air leakage area of working face and the minimum air volume point gradually move to the return air lane direction, the effect of goaf gas emission on the working face gradually weakens, and the amount of air leakage to goaf increases gradually.

Experimental study on spraying characteristics and extinguishing performance of improved water mist nozzle

CHEN Jian, XU Kaili

2017, 27(7): 59-64. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.011

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In order to improve atomization effect of the nozzle, 14 types of water mist nazzles were designed according to atomizated core structure features.Employing laser particle size analyzer and water mist evalution device, the dependencies of atomization effect on atomization chip design parameters were invesitigated.Furthermore, the working pressure and additive concentration corresponding to the optimal fire extinguishing performance of the advenced nozzle were evaluated. The results show that the best atomization effect can be brought about by the water mist nozzle having four swirl chambers when droplet size (X₉₀) is 110.578 μm, that the fire extinguishing efficiency can be improved by 17.4％by increasing the working pressure from 8 MPa to 12 MPa, however the efficiency it will not be improved if the pressure is more than 12 MPa, and that adding sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate(SDBS) to the water would enhance fire extinguishing performance especially the additive concentration is at 0.4 g/L.

Measuring situation awareness of tower controllers based on eye movement and performance analysis

JIN Huibin, LIU Yawei, ZHU Guolei

2017, 27(7): 65-70. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.012

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SA is an important factor influencing the decision-making and operational performance of ATC. In order to explore the objective and effective indicators of the SA of the controllers, an eye-tracking experiment platform to simulate the tower control was built. Three group experiments of varying task difficulty based on the difference of flight number were designed and carried out. NNI algorithm was utilized to quantify subjects' eye-tracking fixation mode. The differences in SA and operational performance between controllers of different NNI fixation features were analyzed comparatively. Results reveal that there is a negative correlation between the SA of the subjects and task difficulty, that the subjects, whose NNI fixation indexes have a discrete distribution, have higher levels of SA and better operational performance, and that the NNI fixation index in the eye movement analysis is a potential indicator of SA in future real-time human factors engineering.

A method for analyzing probability of overspeed of an accident vehicle

LI Hua, ZOU Tiefang, LIU Yong, LI Yuelin, ZHAO Dong

2017, 27(7): 71-76. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.013

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In order to analyze the probability that the speed was greater than the speed limit value at an accident section, a method was worked out based on the sub-interval technique. In this new method, every input parameter was divided to many sub-intervals, and then all sub-intervals of different parameters were combined to form many sub-domains.Then, the accident reconstruction model would be Taylor expanded in each sub-domain and the upper and lower bounds of the reconstruction model could be calculated, and the sub-accident reconstruction velocity interval can be obtained.Finally, the number of sub-intervals of which the upper bound of the sub-accident reconstruction result interval was lower than the speed limit value and the number of sub-intervals of which the lower bound of the sub-accident reconstruction result interval was greater than the speed limit were all counted, and then the frequency of the later was recorded as the probability that the reconstructed velocity was greater than the speed limit value.Results of two numerical cases show that all results obtained by using the proposed method are almost the same as results obtained by using the Monte Carlo method, and no assumption should be made in the proposed method.Finally, a true collision accident was given to show the application of the proposed method. The results show that the probability of speed which is greater than the speed limit value at an accident section is 53.7%.

Coupling analysis of risk factors in flight operation

WANG Yantao, TANG Jianxun, ZHAO Yifei

2017, 27(7): 77-81. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.014

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In order to quantitatively analyze the effects of risk factors on each other a concept of risk coupling for flight operation was introduced. On the basis, based of available civil aviation safety statistics, degrees of risk coupling were calculated for a number of types of coupling by using the N-K model and the coupling model. Risk coupling conditions were systematically analyzed for flights on the ground and those flying. The study shows that mechanical maintenance factor has a moderate degree of coupling with the weather factors, so their coexistence should be avoided, that the air traffic control factors have only a little effect on the flights flying, that when there is a risk to the crew, special attention should be paid to both the weather and the mechanical failure, that for flights on the ground, coexistence of three or more risk factors should be avoided, and that there is a high coincidence degree between the results obtained by using the two models.

Study on safety case method for integrated avionics of civil aircraft

ZHAO Changxiao, YAN Fang XING, Peipei WANG Peng

2017, 27(7): 82-87. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.015

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In order to solve the safety assessment issue of the next generation IMA, safety cases for the IMA were constructed and demonstrated. The deficiency in SAE ARP4761 standard was analyzed, and the basic structure of safety case was described .The applicability of the method for IMA was analyzed. Then the safety cases for IMA were constructed from three aspects, the safety requirements, framework and implementation. Two demonstration methods, process based and product based demonstrations were discussed. Safety demonstrations were implied on the system management function of IMA based on the GSN. The results show that the safety cases can correspond to the development process of civil aircraft systems,and can provide a more effective way to integrate the safety evidence resources in the safety assessment process, thus establishing a clear relationship between the system safety requirements and safety evidences.

A Cone-ANP-based risk assessment study of pipeline

CHAI Qiangfei, XIAO Zhongdong, GAO Jingzhe, SUN Jianan, LI Jielin

2017, 27(7): 88-93. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.016

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In order to identify precisely and comprehensively pipeline risk factors and improve the safety level of pipeline running, the composition of pipeline integrity risk assessment system was analyzed from the perspective of life cycle, Cone-ANP analysis structure of pipeline risk assessment indexes was constructed and weights of the indexes were obtained by using Cone-ANP. In the last, the results were compared with those obtained by using traditional ANP. The results show that pipeline risk factors exist in every phase of its life cycle,that supervision and serious consequence identification are two factors affecting significantly pipeline integrity, and that in the perspective of life cycle, the weight of corrosion is low, and the weights of assessment indexes obtained by using Cone-ANP method are more objective and reasonable.

Influence of water content on energy consumption and destruction form of coal samples with prefabricated crack

KANG Xiangtao, LIU Yong, JIANG Chengyu, SONG Zhenlong, GAO Lin

2017, 27(7): 94-98. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.017

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In order to investigate the influence of water injection on destruction of coal seam, uniaxial compression experiments were carried out on coal samples.Effects of water content on the energy consumption and destruction form of prefabricated cracks in coal samples were studied.The test result indicates that there is a negative exponential correlation between both the uniaxial compressive strength and elastic modulus and the water content,It is also found that the relationships between the total energy accumulation,stored elastic energy,and dissipated energy of destruction of coal sample and the water content take on the form of decreasing quadratic parabola function, that there is a negative correlation between both the axial stress and peak stress required initiate crack during prefabrication and the peak stress and the water content, and that the destruction form of the sample is a function of the water content.

Mechanism of hysteretic rockburst and outburst induced by surrounding rock stress returning

ZHU Quanjie, YIN Yongming, LIU Jinhai, WEN Jinglin, SHI Jianjun

2017, 27(7): 99-104. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.018

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To investigate the occurrence mechanism of rockburst and outburst accidents induced by returned stress of surrounding rocks, a Stress Returning (SR) concept was proposed on the basis of a case-study within a 25110 working face in a coal mine (locates in Henan Province, China) , where two typical accidents had been occurred before. The process of occurrence, mechanical mechanism, and corresponding prevention countermeasures of the SR phenomenon were thoroughly studied using methods of theoretical analysis, numerical simulations and field measurements, etc. The results indicate that the SR is characterized by hysteresis and an eclipse period and that the excessive pressure relief of deep coal body reduces its load-bearing capacity and the abutment pressure is coerced back to the roadway,which is the main reason for occurrence hysteretic rockburst and outburst. Countermeasures adopted according to the results have been applied in the 25110 working face to guarantee the mining safety.

Analysis of factors influencing approach controller hearback error

ZHAO Qi

2017, 27(7): 105-109. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.019

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Correct readback and hearback are crucial to communication between pilots and air traffic controllers. Hearback errors can result in serious breaches in flight safety. 5351 controller-to-pilot transmissions were collected from an approach control radar simulator of the Civil Aviation University of China and transcribed. An analysis based on Logistic regression model was carried out to explore main factors resulting in controller hearback errors from three aspects of talk character, air traffic instance and individual character. The results indicate controllers are more prone to making hearback errors with the increasing departure and arrival aircraft, that traffic complexity has a negative significant impact on the possibility of hearback error, which means the more the traffic complexity is the less the hearback errors will be, and that a different ATS unit also has a significant impact on hearback error.

Kinetic analysis and thermal hazard of 3-chloroperbenzoic acid

JIANG Jiajia, YANG Jianzhou, JIANG Juncheng, PAN Yong, PAN Xuhai

2017, 27(7): 110-114. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.020

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In order to study the thermal decomposition process and hazard of m-CPBA under non-isothermal and adiabatic conditions, a differential scanning calorimeter (DSC) and an accelerating rate calorimeter (ARC)were used to investigate its decomposition characteristics. Thermogravimetric (TG) method was applied to determine the initial decomposition temperature. The kinetics parameters such as activation energy,pre-exponential factor and reaction order were calculated by Kissinger method, Ozawa method and rate constant method. TMR_ad was simulated based on ARC experimental data. The researche results indicate that the initial decomposition temperature of m-CPBA is 94 ℃, that the thermal decomposition of m-CPBA occurs during melting process,that the adiabatic temperature rise of m-CPBA is 41.69 ℃,that the temperatures of TMRad at 8, 24 h are 54.7 ℃ and 50.9 ℃ respectively,and that the ambient temperature of m-CPBA should be under strict control in the process of storage, transportation and use.

Experimental study on isothermal desorption of methane from outburst-prone briquette

ZHANG Zunguo, CAO Shugang, HONG Lin, GUO Ping, ZHANG Yifu, QI Xiaohan

2017, 27(7): 115-120. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.021

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In order to research characteristics of desorption of methane from outburst-prone coal, experiments were carried out on briquettes made of outburst-prone coal. Influence of the minimum equilibrium pressure on the adsorption constants during desorption experiment was analyzed. Reversibility of methane adsorption and desorption processes, the reasonable pressure conditions for gas isothermal desorption experiment and its data processing method were discussed. The results show that the minimum equilibrium pressure has a great influence on the fitting results of adsorption constants during desorption experiment, that the experiment processes are typically reversible, and there is a delay in the desorption process, that the isothermal desorption curves still obey Langmuir equation, and that to improve the reliability of the experiment results, the data on complete desorption state (desorption equilibrium pressure is 0 MPa and the residual adsorption is 0 mL/g) should be considered in firring, and the minimum equilibrium pressure for desorption experiment should not be higher than 0.51 MPa.

Identification and application of key parameters of bolt support for roadways with extra-thick mudstone roof

MA Zhenqian, JIANG Yaodong, ZUO Yujun, CAO Yunqin

2017, 27(7): 121-126. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.022

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To analyze the sensitivity of bolt support parameters for roadways with extra-thick mudstone roof, the panel 15107 in Huangyanhui colliery was taken as engineering background, theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and field industrial test method were adopted to investigate the influence of bolt length, bolt spacing, bolt preload, anchor length, anchor spacing and anchor preload on the stability of the roadway. A mechanical model of roadway roof was also built, and a method of determining the spacing of cable was given. The results show that the order of bolt support parameters, by their effects on the stabilty, is anchor spacing, bolt preload, anchor preload, bolt length, bolt spacing and anchor length,anchor spacing is the most significant factor affecting the stability. Field application shows that reasonable anchor spacing can effectively control the deformation and failure of the roadway.

Study of drunk driving identification model based on factor analysis and multilayer neural network

SUN Yifan, ZHANG Jinglei, WANG Sisi

2017, 27(7): 127-132. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.023

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In order to recognize drunk driving and identify the level of drunk driving states accurately, and improve the efficiencies of drunk driving governances, all drivers' driving behavior data (including the data on human, vehicle and environment) of three driving states including normal, tipsy and intoxicated were gathered by human factors engineering experiments and driving simulation experiments, the experimental data were pretreated. The original parameters were analyzed by factor analysis and the characteristic parameters were extracted as the vectors to be input in a multilayer neural network. The multilayer neural network was trained, and an identification model was built for drunk driving behaviors based on factor analysis and multi-layer neural network. The research shows that the training time of the model is 0.905 seconds, the optimal validation mean square error(MSE) of the model is 0.034, and recognition accuracy is 92.41%, and the model could be used to identify drunk driving behaviors quickly and accurately .

Research on stability of goaf roof under mechanical construction loading

LI Yufei, YE Yicheng, LIU Xiaoyun, HU Nanyan, LUO Binyu, YUAN Zhouhao

2017, 27(7): 133-138. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.024

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To ensure the safety of the operation personnel and the mining and excavation equipment at the place over the goaf, based on the mechanical analysis, the rock beam of shallow goaf was generalized as a mechanical structure model like clamped-clamped beam, a total potential energy equation was established for the system of ground mechanical construction loading and goaf roof. Based on the catastrophe theory, a cusp catastrophe model was built for instability of goaf roof, a criterion was obtained for catastrophic instability of goaf roof , and then a calculation model was built for mechanical construction loading under the condition of maintaining the goafroof. As well, example verification of the calculation model was carried out. The results show that the larger the lateral thrust force acting on goaf roof rock beam is, the smaller the elastic modulus of rock beam is and the greater the span of the goaf is,the greater the probability of losing stability for the goaf roof will be,that the necessary condition for the instability of goaf roof is related to the internal characteristics of roof, which has nothing to do with external conditions,and that the necessary and sufficient condition for the instability of goaf roof under ground construction loading depends on the combination of internal characteristics of roof and external conditions.

A study on impact of construction safety regulation on production efficiency

ZHANG Shilian, WANG Yuxuan

2017, 27(7): 139-144. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.025

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In order to solve the contradiction between safety and economic development in construction industry, a nonlinear regression model was built, by means of which, the impact and its regional differences of construction safety regulation on production efficiency were analyzed based on the panel data collected from 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2009 to 2015. The results show that construction safety regulation has an inverted U type effect on production efficiency, it will reduce production efficiency when safety regulation intensity is too low or too high.Meanwhile, the regional differences and internal volatility existed in the impact of construction safety regulation on production efficiency.So it is necessary to make regionalpolicy and implement the distinguished construction safety regulationto promote the development of construction industry.

Work safety incentive contract to small and medium sized enterprises in supply chain environment

ZHOU Qiaomei, MEI Qiang, LIU Suxia

2017, 27(7): 145-150. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.026

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To improve the situation of work safety of small and medium-sized enterprises in China, the principal-agent relationships between the enterprises and core enterprises in supply chain were analyzed and an incentive contract model was built for safety of small and medium-sized enterprises under the dual task principal-agent framework condition. Incentive parameters, the effort level of small and medium enterprise production and safety tasks and the return of core enterprise were analyzed by using a numerical simulation method. The results show that the incentive of the core enterprise to the production tasks of small and medium-sized enterprises is obviously greater than that to the safety tasks that reducing the safety costs of small and medium-sized enterprises or increasing their safety marginal revenue with core enterprise's help will increase their effort to a greater extent in performing the safety task, and that if a core enterprise helps the small and medium-sized enterprises to reduce their production and safety costs, the core enterprise's own income will increase.

Evolution and governance mechanism of urban public safety risk in big data era

CAO Cejun, LI Congdong, WANG Yu, QU Ting, ZHANG Wei

2017, 27(7): 151-156. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.027

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To improve the governance level of urban public safety risks and reduce social losses, an analysis framework was developed to investigate evolution and governance mechanism of risk in big data era. Evolution modes of urban public safety risk were established from the perspective of point, chain, network, and super-network on the basis of analyzing characteristics and classifications of risks. An evolution model was built for urban public safety risks according to preliminary hazard analysis in big data era. An innovative governance mode of urban public safety risks was proposed from the integrated perspectives of both feedforward control and feedback response. Results indicate that the proposed evolution model of urban public safety risks is helpful to predict accurately the trend of status of risk elements over time, develop the targeted governance measures, and design governance mode of risk from an integrated viewpoint.

Risk analysis of stampede by dynamic Bayesian network

ZHAO Luyan, MA Jun

2017, 27(7): 157-162. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.028

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In order to explore trigger factors of crowd stampede and evaluate the accident risk quantitatively, a static Bayesian network model was improved based on the Bayesian estimation theory. A dynamic Bayesian model, by which posterior parameters can be calculated according to the collected real-time data, was built for obtaining quantitative assessment results of dynamic risk. Finally, a certain commercial district with a large population in Beijing City was used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the risk of crowd jamming and that of stampede are 0.8×10^-3 and 7.6×10^-6 respectively, that with the introduction of real-time data, the risks are improved to 2.4×10^-3 and 1.63×10^-5 respectively, that slow evacuation, occupied evacuation routes, and the lack of safety logo are main causes of jam and stampede, that the probability of occurrence and weight of influence of each basic event in the instance are dynamic, which proves that the model is effective.

Research on risk-based early-warning method for corrosion failure of subsea oil & gas pipelines

LI Xinhong, CHEN Guoming, ZHU Hongwei

2017, 27(7): 163-168. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.029

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To ensure the safe operation of subsea oil and gas pipelines, and improve the capability of preventing and controlling major accident, in terms of two failure modes of subsea pipelines, penetration and burst, a risk-based early-warning methodology was developed in this paper. Limit state functions were developed for corrosion penetration and burst of pipelines by using the structure reliability theory. The functions were solved by the Monte Carlo method. Then, the dynamic failure probabilities of pipelines were obtained. Through setting the early-warning levels of pipeline failure, the early-warning degree and critical failure years of pipelines were determined. Thus, the early-warning information can be released based on the above procedures. The results show that the failure probability of a pipelines increases with its service time, and it will have a sudden change in its aged stage.The operation safety of pipelines should be paid enough attention at the critical time node and necessary control measures should also be implemented.

Location-multimodal transportation problem for relief distribution in emergency logistics under fuzzy conditions

SONG Yinghua, WANG Lifang, DU Lijing, FANG Danhui, WANG Zhe

2017, 27(7): 169-174. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.07.030

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In order to improve efficiency of emergency supplies distribution, make full use of existing vehicles and meet different requirements of multi-agents, based on the characteristics of supply and demand of emergency materials and relative urgency in relief demand, a multi-modal, multi-period and multi-objective integrated optimization model was built for emergency material location-multimodal transportation under fuzzy condition. The defuzzification strategies and specific algorithm were given to transform fuzzy model and "multi-objective". And then through an empirical analysis of Hubei Province flood disaster in July 2016 the model and algorithm were verified. The results show that the model that introduces the demand urgency can be used to allocate emergency supplies according to priority of relief demand, and dynamically select site and allocate emergency supplies to meet different decision maker's preference for the three objectives.

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