集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.015

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 82-87.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.01.015

集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用

舒畅¹, 姚安林^1,2 教授, 刘帅峰³, 徐涛龙¹, 王惠¹

1 西南石油大学石油与天然气工程学院,四川成都 610500
2 油气消防四川省重点实验室,四川成都 610500
3 中国海洋石油总公司天津分公司,天津 300452

收稿日期:2016-10-19 修回日期:2016-11-24
作者简介:舒畅 (1992—),男,湖北武汉人,硕士研究生,研究方向为油气储运系统风险评价与完整性管理。E-mail:schang92@163.com。
基金资助:
国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK06B01)。

Application of set pair analysis in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipeline

SHU Chang¹, YAO Anlin^1,2, LIU Shuaifeng³, XU Taolong¹, WANG Hui¹

1 College of Petroleum & Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
2 Oil and Gas Fire Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China
3 Tianjin Branch of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tianjin 300452, China

Received:2016-10-19 Revised:2016-11-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为分析海洋油气管道的失效可能性,首先建立海底油气管道失效可能性评价指标体系,它包括腐蚀、第三方破坏、环境、误操作、管道自身和安全管理6大方面的21个因素。考虑到诸指标间的影响,用熵权法与超标倍数赋权法相结合的改进综合权重法确定权重。用基于集对分析的海底油气管道失效可能性评价方法评价某海域5段不同的管段。根据指标分值,得出各管段最大联系度,以判定其失效可能性。结果表明,集对分析法对指标分值的处理结果与实际情况基本符合,可应用于海底油气管道的失效可能性分析。

关键词: 海底油气管道, 失效可能性, 集对分析, 综合权重, 联系度

Abstract: For the sake of analyzing submarine pipeline failure possibility, an evaluation index system was established. The index system consists of 21 factors of 6 aspects, including corrosion, third party damage, environment, misoperation, pipeline itself and safety management. weights of the indexes were determined by using the modified comprehensive weight method which combine the entropy weight method with the excessive multiples weight method. Lastly, the failure possibility evaluation method of submarine oil and gas pipeline based on set pair analysis was adopted to evaluate 5 different pipe sections in a certain sea. The maximum connection degrees of each pipe section were determined according to the evaluation scores to judge the failure possibility. The results show that the processing result of index score by set pair analysis conforms with the actual situation, and set pair analysis can be used in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipelines.

Key words: submarine oil &, gas pipelines, failure probability, set pair analysis, comprehensive weight, connection degree

中图分类号:

X913.4

舒畅, 姚安林, 刘帅峰, 徐涛龙, 王惠. 集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(1): 82-87.

SHU Chang, YAO Anlin, LIU Shuaifeng, XU Taolong, WANG Hui. Application of set pair analysis in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipeline[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(1): 82-87.

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集对分析在海底管道失效可能性评价中的应用

Application of set pair analysis in evaluation of failure probability of submarine pipeline

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