中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 169-175.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.02.030

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    

需求不确定下的应急物资储备库选址模型研究

张鑫1,2 副教授, 高淑春1,2   

  1. 1 合肥工业大学 管理学院,安徽 合肥 230009
    2 过程优化与智能决策教育部重点实验室,安徽 合肥 230009
  • 收稿日期:2016-11-08 修回日期:2016-12-20 出版日期:2017-02-28 发布日期:2020-11-22
  • 作者简介:张 鑫 (1967— ),男,安徽太和人,博士,副教授,硕士生导师,主要从事区域优化等方面的研究。E-mail:glkk0204@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    教育部人文社会科学研究项目(12YJA630031);安徽省高等学校人文社会科学重点研究基地基金资助(2010sk031);合肥工业大学产业转移与创新发展研究中心开放基金重点项目资助(2013HGXJ0324);合肥市应急物资储备专项规划(2015)。

Research on location model of emergency supplies repository under demand uncertainty

ZHANG Xin1,2, GAO Shuchun1,2   

  1. 1 School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei Anhui 230009, China
    2 Key Laboratory of Process Optimization and Intelligent Decision-making, Ministry of Education, Hefei Anhui 230009, China
  • Received:2016-11-08 Revised:2016-12-20 Online:2017-02-28 Published:2020-11-22

摘要: 为提高应急突发事件的预防和处置能力,探讨需求不确定条件下的应急物资储备库选址问题。首先通过基于联系数的区间灰数法预测不确定需求,然后构建包含最短应急时间、最大覆盖范围、最小成本的多目标应急物资储备库模型,并利用改进的非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)求解模型。结果表明,用基于联系数的区间灰数预测法能在样本量较少的情况下保证预测的准确性,用所建模型经多次迭代能从多个候选库存中选取出精度较高的Pareto最优解集,保证解集的多样性和准确性。

关键词: 应急物资储备库, 选址, 非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II), 多目标优化, 不确定需求

Abstract: The paper was aimed at solving the problem about locating emergency supplies repositories under uncertain demand condition. The uncertain demands were predicted by using the interval grey number method based on connection number. Then an emergency supplies repository locating model was built, in which multi-objective optimization was considered for the shortest response time, maximum coverage, and minimum cost.The model was solved by the improved NSGA-II method to find the Pareto optimal solutions. The result shows that by using the model, an optimal solution set can be selected from many candidate inventories.

Key words: relief supplies repository, location, non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II), multi-objective optimization, uncertain demand

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