发射场地面设备全寿命分段方法研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.12.007

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2017, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (12): 37-42.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2017.12.007

发射场地面设备全寿命分段方法研究

黄健¹, 陈景鹏² 副教授, 徐慧敏¹, 柳宁远¹, 王宁³ 高级工程师

¹航天工程大学研究生管理大队,北京 101416
²航天工程大学航天装备系,北京 10141
³中国运载火箭技术研究院,北京 100076

收稿日期:2017-09-20 修回日期:2017-11-19 出版日期:2017-12-28 发布日期:2020-10-10
作者简介:黄健 (1989—),男,山东沂水人,硕士研究生,研究方向为航天发射总体理论与技术。E-mail:huangjianqiang22@163.com。

Study on reliability-based segmentation of lifetime of ground equipment in launch field

HUANG Jian¹, CHEN Jingpeng², XU Huimin¹, LIU Ningyuan¹, WANG Ning³

¹Administrant Brigade of Postgraduate,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416,China
²Department of Space Equipment,Space Engineering University,Beijing 101416,China
³China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology,Beijing 100076,China

Received:2017-09-20 Revised:2017-11-19 Online:2017-12-28 Published:2020-10-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为提高发射场地面系统概率安全评估(PSA)工作的准确性,克服设备小子样和数据缺失带来的困难,考虑到设备故障随使用时间的不均匀分布问题,开发一个基于数据特点的设备全寿命使用阶段划分方法。首先,分析设备在全寿命运行过程中的数据累计变化特点,并根据数据多源性划分设备的3个不同使用阶段;其次,分别利用蒙特卡罗模拟法和服从寿命分布的函数,确定设备在3个使用阶段的2个分段时间点处的可靠度计算方法;最后,以发射场常规加注泵为例验证该分段方法有效性。研究结果表明:加注泵运行前中期分段点为31 h,对应可靠度为0.996 5;中后期分段点为132 h,对应可靠度为0.979 8。

关键词: 概率安全评估(PSA), 可靠度, 全寿命分段, 状态转移, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 对数正态分布

Abstract: In order to improve the accuracy of PSA work of the launch site ground system and overcome the difficulties caused by both the small sample and data loss, a kind of equipment full life segmentation method based on data characteristics was worked out, considering the uneven distribution of equipment failure rules with usage time. For the sake of working out the method, the changes of data accumulation during the period of usage time were analyzed and the three stages of the equipment were determined based on multi-source data. Monte Carlo simulation and life distribution function were used to calculate the reliability of the segmented time point. A certain conventional filling pump was taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the piecewise method. The results show that the premetaphase point is 31 h, the corresponding reliability is 0.996 5, the middle and late point is 132 h, the corresponding reliability is 0.979 8.

Key words: probabilistic safety assessment(PSA), reliability, segmentation of lifetime, state transition, Monte Carlo simulation, lognormal distribution

中图分类号:

X924.3
V57

黄健, 陈景鹏, 徐慧敏, 柳宁远, 王宁. 发射场地面设备全寿命分段方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2017, 27(12): 37-42.

HUANG Jian, CHEN Jingpeng, XU Huimin, LIU Ningyuan, WANG Ning. Study on reliability-based segmentation of lifetime of ground equipment in launch field[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2017, 27(12): 37-42.

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发射场地面设备全寿命分段方法研究

Study on reliability-based segmentation of lifetime of ground equipment in launch field

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