深井超深井套管风险评估方法

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.026

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 159-164.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.026

深井超深井套管风险评估方法

赵垒^1,2, 闫怡飞^**1,2 讲师, 王鹏³ 高级工程师, 赵龙^1,2, 闫相祯^2,4 教授, 冯耀荣³ 教授

1 中国石油大学华东机电工程学院,山东青岛 266580;
2 中国石油大学华东油气CAE 技术研究中心,山东青岛 266580;
3 中国石油天然气集团石油管工程重点实验室,陕西西安 710065;
4 中国石油大学华东储运与建筑工程学院,山东青岛 266580

收稿日期:2019-01-06 修回日期:2019-03-10 发布日期:2020-11-02
通讯作者: **闫怡飞(1984—),男,山东青岛人,博士,讲师,主要从事油气安全工程方面的研究。E-mail:yanyf163@163.com。
作者简介:赵垒(1987—),男,安徽淮北人,博士研究生,研究方向为油气安全工程。E-mail:zhaoleixh3a@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51804330);中国石油天然气集团公司科技计划项目(2016A3905);国家科技重大专项项目(2016ZX05017-003);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(18CX02154A)。

Risk assessment method of casing for deep and ultra-deep wells

ZHAO Lei ^1,2, YAN Yifei ^1,2, WANG Peng³, ZHAO Long ^1,2, YAN Xiangzhen ^2.4, FENG Yaorong³

1 College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering, China University of Petroleum East China, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China;
2 Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center, China University of Petroleum East China, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China;
3 Tubular Goods Research Center, CNPC, Xi'an Shaanxi 710065, China;
4 College of Pipeline and Civil Engineering, China University of Petroleum East China, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China

Received:2019-01-06 Revised:2019-03-10 Published:2020-11-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 套管强度设计标准未考虑制造缺陷,且深井超深井套管安全系数难以确定,为弥补这些不足,提出一种基于目标可靠指标的含缺陷套管风险评估方法。首先,建立考虑套管制造缺陷的套管强度和外载计算方法,并基于强度和载荷影响因素的随机性,利用蒙特卡罗(MC)法获取强度和载荷的分布类型和参数;其次,确定目标可靠指标,对拉克维茨-菲斯勒(R-F)法逆向迭代求解,并结合分项系数法,确定套管强度和载荷的分项系数;最后,根据分项系数和套管外载标准值确定套管所需的最低强度值,选择套管或判断已选套管是否满足安全可靠性的要求,并作实例分析。结果表明:该风险评估方法能够满足深井超深井套管设计和选型的工程实际需要;能够弥补传统设计法中安全系数选取困难的现状。

关键词: 可靠度, 深井, 超深井, 套管强度, 分项系数, 风险评估

Abstract: In view of the facts that the manufacturing defects were not considered in current casing strength design standards, and that the safety factors of casing was hard to identify, a risk assessment method of the casing with defects based on the target reliability index was proposed. Firstly, calculation methods of the strength and external load of casing considering manufacturing defects were established, and the distribution types and parameters of strength and load were calculated by Monte Carlo(MC) method on the basis of the randomness of factors influenching strength and load. Secondly, by determining the target reliability index and solving the Rackwitz-Fiessler(R-F) calculus points using inverse iteration, the partial coefficients of casing strength and load were determined. Finally, the minimum strength value required for casing was determined according to the partial coefficients and casing load standard value, and the casing was selected or judged based on the safety and reliability requirements. An oilfield was taken as an example to verify the proposed method. The results show that the risk assessment method established in this paper can meet the practical project needs of casing design and selection for deep and ultra-deep wells, and can help to solve the difficulty of selecting safety factors in the traditional design method.

Key words: reliability, deep well, ultra-deep well, casing strength, partial coefficient, risk assessment

中图分类号:

X913.4

赵垒, 闫怡飞, 王鹏, 赵龙, 闫相祯, 冯耀荣. 深井超深井套管风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 159-164.

ZHAO Lei , YAN Yifei , WANG Peng, ZHAO Long , YAN Xiangzhen , FENG Yaorong. Risk assessment method of casing for deep and ultra-deep wells[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 159-164.

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深井超深井套管风险评估方法

Risk assessment method of casing for deep and ultra-deep wells

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