中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (8): 93-100.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.08.014

• 公共安全 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于语言集信息的突发事件预警方法

张自欣1 副教授, 王亮**2 副教授, 王应明2 教授   

  1. 1 阳光学院 现代管理学院,福建 福州 350015;
    2 福州大学 经济与管理学院,福建 福州 350116
  • 收稿日期:2020-05-02 修回日期:2020-07-14 出版日期:2020-08-28 发布日期:2021-07-15
  • 通讯作者: ** 王 亮(1987—),男,陕西周至人,博士,副教授,主要从事决策理论与方法研究。E-mail:wangliangg322@hotmail.com。
  • 作者简介:张自欣 (1988—),女,河南南乐人,博士,副教授,主要从事决策理论与方法研究。E-mail:zhangzixin768@163.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(71901071);福建省社会科学研究项目(FJ2019C033)。

Early warning method for emergencies based on linguistic information

ZHANG Zixin1, WANG Liang2, WANG Yingming2   

  1. 1 College of Modern Management, Yango University, Fuzhou Fujian 350015, China;
    2 School of Economics & Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou Fujian 350116, China
  • Received:2020-05-02 Revised:2020-07-14 Online:2020-08-28 Published:2021-07-15

摘要: 为了弥补现有突发事件预警研究忽略现实生活中预警信息的模糊性特征的不足,提出基于语言集信息的突发事件预警方法。首先,给出模糊框架下语言集信息的基本置信度计算方式;其次,利用模糊证据推理融合模糊框架下的语言集信息;再次,根据不同评价等级上的最终置信度判断预警对象所处的安全状态,以此达到预警的目的;最后,通过算例分析来验证所提方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明:所提方法能够很好地处理现实生活中突发事件的模糊预警信息。

关键词: 语言集信息, 突发事件, 预警, 模糊证据推理, 置信度

Abstract: In order to make up for deficiencies of existing studies which neglected fuzziness of information related to emergency early warning in real word, a warning method based on linguistic information was proposed. Firstly, calculation method for basic belief degree of linguistic information under fuzzy frame was provided. Secondly, the information was fused by employing fuzzy evidential reasoning. Thirdly, safety status of warning objects were determined according to final belief degrees of different assessment grades so as to attain early warning purpose. Finally, a numerical example was applied to illustrate feasibility and validity of proposed method. The results show that it can deal with fuzzy warning information of emergencies in real world successfully.

Key words: linguistic information, emergency, early warning, fuzzy evidential reasoning, belief degree

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