装配式建筑施工风险评价模型构建及应用

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.10.2119

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 69-75.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.10.2119

装配式建筑施工风险评价模型构建及应用

王丹(), 梁靖涵^**()

辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁葫芦岛 125105

收稿日期:2022-04-13 修回日期:2022-08-12 出版日期:2022-10-28 发布日期:2023-04-28
通讯作者: 梁靖涵
作者简介:
王丹 (1978—),女,辽宁铁岭人,博士,教授,博士生导师,主要从事工程项目安全与风险管理等方面的研究。E-mail:wd-wangdan@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(51404125)

Development and application of risk assessment model for prefabricated building construction

WANG Dan(), LIANG Jinghan^**()

School of Business Administration, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao Liaoning 125105, China

Received:2022-04-13 Revised:2022-08-12 Online:2022-10-28 Published:2023-04-28
Contact: LIANG Jinghan

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为降低装配式建筑项目施工风险,基于事故分析等方法提炼指标,建立5个一级指标、26个二级指标的装配式建筑施工风险评价指标体系;引入变权理论和贴近度替换传统物元可拓方法中的常权赋权法和关联度算法,构建基于改进物元可拓的装配式建筑施工风险评价模型;应用该模型进行案例验证,得出案例工程施工风险等级为1级,属于低风险,并通过对比改进模型与传统物元可拓模型的评价结果,验证改进模型的有效性。结果表明:应用基于改进物元可拓方法构建的装配式建筑施工风险评价模型,可以在事故发生前有效评价项目风险状况,达到提高风险管理效益的目的。

关键词: 装配式建筑, 施工风险评价, 物元可拓模型, 变权理论, 贴近度

Abstract:

In order to reduce the construction risks of prefabricated building projects, indexes were refined based on accident analysis and other methods, and the construction risk evaluation index system of prefabricated buildings with 5 primary indexes and 26 secondary ones was established. Then, the contingency theory and nearness degree were introduced to replace constant weight assignment method and correlation degree algorithm in traditional matter element extension method, and the construction risk assessment model of prefabricated buildings based on the improved matter element extension was constructed. Finally, the model was applied to validate the case whose construction risk level was obtained to be 1, namely low risk, and effectiveness of the model was verified by comparing its assessment results with those of the traditional one. The results show that the assessment model based on the improved matter element extension method can be applied to effectively evaluate the project risk status before the occurrence of accidents and achieve the purpose of improving risk management benefits.

Key words: prefabricated building, construction risk assessment, matter element extension model, contingency theory, nearness degree

王丹, 梁靖涵. 装配式建筑施工风险评价模型构建及应用[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(10): 69-75.

WANG Dan, LIANG Jinghan. Development and application of risk assessment model for prefabricated building construction[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(10): 69-75.

图/表 7

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KMO 取样适切性量数		0.768
巴特利特球形度检验	近似卡方	2 545.316
	自由度	1 176
	显著性	<0.001

评价指标	常权权重	评价指标	常权权重
A₁	0.033 0	B₈	0.019 3
A₂	0.108 3	B₉	0.018 0
A₃	0.040 8	C₁	0.051 0
A₄	0.023 0	C₂	0.037 7
A₅	0.099 5	C₃	0.062 7
A₆	0.025 7	C₄	0.044 1
B₁	0.023 6	C₅	0.050 2
B₂	0.024 4	D₁	0.018 0
B₃	0.018 6	D₂	0.022 8
B₄	0.014 0	D₃	0.011 3
B₅	0.024 7	D₄	0.014 7
B₆	0.016 6	E₁	0.132 0
B₇	0.016 3	E₂	0.049 8

装配式建筑施工风险评价模型构建及应用

Development and application of risk assessment model for prefabricated building construction

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