中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 125-131.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.020

• 安全工程技术科学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于共识模型与IN-TODIM的FMEA风险评估方法

王睿1, 朱江洪1, 李延来1,2 教授   

  1. 1 西南交通大学 交通运输与物流学院,四川 成都 611756;
    2 西南交通大学 综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川 成都 611756
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-20 修回日期:2019-07-19 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2020-10-30
  • 作者简介:王 睿 (1992—),男,江西吉安人,博士研究生,研究方向为可靠性管理。E-mail:wryuedi@my.swjtu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金资助(71371156);西南交通大学博士研究生创新基金项目(D-CX201727)。

FMEA approach for risk evaluation based on consensus model and IN-TODIM

WANG Rui1, ZHU Jianghong1, LI Yanlai1,2   

  1. 1 School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China;
    2 National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 611756, China
  • Received:2019-05-20 Revised:2019-07-19 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2020-10-30

摘要: 为提高传统故障模式和影响分析(FMEA)方法的科学性与准确性,在区间中智(IN)背景下,考虑专家共识水平与风险偏好,提出一种改进的FMEA方法。首先,引入区间中智数(INN)表征专家对故障模式与风险因子权重的评估信息,构建共识模型,以准确识别与修正专家非共识评估信息;然后,根据达成共识的群体风险因子评估矩阵,结合风险因子权重评估信息和区间中智熵测度,综合确定风险因子权重;最后,考虑专家的非理性心理,提出区间中智-交互式多准则决策(IN-TODIM)方法,以确定故障模式风险顺序,并将改进的FMEA方法应用于某钢铁冶炼工厂。结果表明:改进的FMEA方法可迭代优化偏离群体的非共识信息,得到更为准确的风险评估结果。

关键词: 故障模式和影响分析(FMEA), 风险评估, 共识模型, 综合赋权法, 区间中智-交互式多准则决策(IN-TODIM)

Abstract: In order to make traditional FMEA approach more scientific and accurate, a novel FMEA approach for risk evaluation under interval neutrosophic background was proposed, which considers both consensus level and risk preference of decision makers. Firstly, interval neutrosophic numbers were introduced to represent decision makers' evaluation on failure modes and risk factor weights, and a new consensus model was developed to accurately identify and revise non-consensus evaluation information. Secondly, weights of risk factors were determined according to collective evaluation matrix of consensus risk factors combined with evaluation information of risk factor weights and interval neutrosophic entropy measures. Finally, IN-TODIM method was constructed considering irrational psychological behaviors of decision makers to obtain risk ranking of failure modes, and it was also applied to evaluate risks of a steel smelter. The results show that the proposed FMEA approach can iteratively improve non-consensus evaluations that deviate from group opinions and thus obtain more accurate evaluation results.

Key words: failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), risk evaluation, consensus model, comprehensive weighting method, interval neutrosophic-tomada de decisao interativa e multicritevio (IN-TODIM)

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