中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (9): 27-35.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.09.005

• 安全系统学 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于STPA和模糊BN的AIDC移交人误研究

王洁宁1,2 教授, 李保燊1,2, 冀姗姗3   

  1. 1 中国民航大学 空中交通管理学院,天津 300300;
    2 中国民航大学 天津市空管运行规划与安全技术重点实验室,天津 300300;
    3 民航华东空管局空中交通管制中心,上海 200335
  • 收稿日期:2019-05-29 修回日期:2019-07-25 出版日期:2019-09-28 发布日期:2020-10-30
  • 作者简介:王洁宁 (1966—),男,甘肃兰州人,博士,教授,硕士生导师,主要从事空管运行安全及空管系统仿真方面的研究。E-mail:wang_jiening@aliyun.com。
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划(2016YFB0502401);民航华东空管局科技项目(KJ1804)。

Study on human error in AIDC transfer based on STPA and fuzzy BN

WANG Jiening1,2, LI Baoshen1,2, JI Shanshan3   

  1. 1 College of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;
    2 Tianjin Key Laboratory of Operation Programming and Safety Technology of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China;
    3 East China Air Traffic Management Bureau CAAC, Shanghai 200335, China
  • Received:2019-05-29 Revised:2019-07-25 Online:2019-09-28 Published:2020-10-30

摘要: 为评估因空管自动化系统功能不完备而潜在的管制移交人因风险,首先,采用系统理论过程分析(STPA)方法,构建空中交通服务设施间数据通信(AIDC)移交过程的安全控制结构图,识别出AIDC移交时的关键人误;然后,结合空管人误分类模型(HERA-JANUS)构建基于贝叶斯网络(BN)的人误分析模型,利用专家经验和模糊集理论量化各节点的先验概率;最后,通过GeNIe软件训练数据,可视化诊断模糊BN,得到目标事件的发生概率,分析出关键人误。结果表明:STPA方法驱动下的模糊BN能够全面地识别AIDC移交过程中的关键人误致因,其中AIDC移交失败时系统无告警是管制移交过程中的重要人误风险源;当目标事件发生时,管制员“注意力分散”、“忘记监控”、“注意力不集中”和“警觉性降低”4种差错行为发生的概率占比较高,是造成管制移交时航空器小于安全间隔的关键差错行为。

关键词: 空管自动化系统, 人因风险, 系统理论过程分析(STPA), 模糊贝叶斯网络(BN), 空管人误分类模型(HERA-JANUS), 空中交通服务设施间数据通信(AIDC)

Abstract: In order to assess potential human risk in the transfer of air traffic control due to incomplete functions of air traffic control automation system, firstly, key human errors in AIDC transfer were identified through developing a control feedback structure diagram with STPA method. Then a BN-based human error analysis model was constructed in combination with HERA-JANUS, and prior probability of each node was quantized building on expert experience and fuzzy set theory. Finally, through visually diagnosing fuzzy BN with training data of GeNIe software, occurrence probability of target events was finally acquired and key human errors were concluded. The results show that fuzzy BN driven by STPA method can comprehensively identify key human error causes in AIDC transfer, among which dearth of system warnings in the event of transfer failure is a key hazard source of human errors during transfer process. And when target event occurs, four kinds of human error behaviors have higher probability to occur, including “controllers' distraction”, “forgotten monitoring”, “low concentration” and “diminished alertness”, which are four fundamental causes that result in a smaller and dangerous interval during the transfer of AIDC.

Key words: air traffic control automation system, human risk, system theoretic process analysis (STPA), fuzzy Bayesian Network(BN), human error in ATM technique-JANUS (HERA-JANUS) model, air traffic services inter-facility data communications(AIDC)

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