基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.02.014

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (2): 99-105.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.02.014

基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

鲁锦涛^1,2 教授, 任利成^1,2 教授, 戎丹¹, 郭昕曜³ 讲师

1 太原科技大学经济与管理学院, 山西太原 030024;
2 太原科技大学企业社会责任研究中心, 山西太原 030024;
3 郑州航空工业管理学院民航学院, 河南郑州 450046

收稿日期:2020-11-22 修回日期:2021-01-12 出版日期:2021-02-28 发布日期:2021-08-18
作者简介:鲁锦涛 (1983—),男,陕西宝鸡人,博士,教授,主要从事煤矿企业可持续管理与能源安全风险评价等方面的研究。E-mail: lut2002@163.com。
基金资助:
山西省重点研发计划(社发领域)项目(201903D321004);山西省高等学校创新人才支持计划(中青年拔尖创新人才)项目(20191043)。

Assessment of coal mine gas explosion risk based on grey-matter element model

LU Jintao^1,2, REN Licheng^1,2, RONG Dan¹, GUO Xinyao³

1 School of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan Shanxi 030024, China;
2 Research Center for Corporate Social Responsibility, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan Shanxi 030024, China;
3 School of Civil Aviation, Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou Henan 450046, China

Received:2020-11-22 Revised:2021-01-12 Online:2021-02-28 Published:2021-08-18

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了明确风险因素间的作用路径并提出科学可行的瓦斯爆炸灾害风险评估方法,首先基于3类危险源理论梳理分析以往典型瓦斯爆炸案例,识别并提取14个影响因素;然后通过集成灰色系统理论和物元可拓模型,构建灰色-物元评估模型;最后以山西省某煤矿的实际调研数据为例,计算各影响因素的权重和关联函数,梳理风险因素致灾的逻辑关系,得出该矿井2个具体工作面的瓦斯爆炸风险等级。研究表明:1号工作面中的平均瓦斯涌出量、煤尘爆炸指数、采掘机械化水平与2号工作面中的瓦斯体积分数均处于较不安全级别,2个工作面的综合风险等级分别为一般安全与较安全级别。

关键词: 灰色系统理论, 物元可拓模型, 瓦斯爆炸, 风险评估, 3类危险源

Abstract: In order to identify influence path among risk factors and come up with a scientific and feasible risk assessment method of gas explosion disaster, firstly, previous typical gas explosion cases were analyzed based on theory of three types of risk sources, and 14 influencing factors were identified and extracted. Secondly, a grey matter-element evaluation model was constructed through integrating grey system theory and matter-element extension model. Finally, with actual investigation data from coal mines in Shanxi province of China as an example, weight and correlation function of each influencing factor were calculated, logical relationship of risk factors was combed, and risk level of gas explosion in two specific working faces of investigated mine was obtained. The results show that average gas emission content, coal dust explosion index, mining mechanization level in No.1 working face and the gas concentration in that of No.2 are all at less safe level, and comprehensive risk level of them are at general safety level and safety level, respectively.

Key words: grey correlation method, matter-element extension model, gas explosion, risk assessment, three types of risk sources

中图分类号:

X932

鲁锦涛, 任利成, 戎丹, 郭昕曜. 基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 99-105.

LU Jintao, REN Licheng, RONG Dan, GUO Xinyao. Assessment of coal mine gas explosion risk based on grey-matter element model[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(2): 99-105.

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基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估

Assessment of coal mine gas explosion risk based on grey-matter element model

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