风险动物园(VII):灰犀牛风险分类体系、演化机制与管控策略

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.08.1704

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

作为风险管理领域的新兴概念和隐喻理论的重要组成部分,风险动物园中灰犀牛的本质属性和风险特征被广泛研究和应用。为防范化解新时代的风险挑战,加强灰犀牛相关研究的系统梳理和内涵挖掘,通过融合现有理论模型和借鉴风险分类方法,开展灰犀牛风险的类型体系构建、演化机制探析与管控策略研究。结果表明:灰犀牛风险作为客观环境因素和主观认知影响交互作用下的产物,按照特征维、认知维和状态维以及时间视角、空间视角和主体视角,把灰犀牛风险划分为隐藏灰犀牛、静止灰犀牛和冲撞灰犀牛;根据风险感知、风险距离和风险框架影响因素的作用机制,评估每类灰犀牛风险的发展态势;进而构建复杂系统内“累积—波动—突变”的演化框架,提出风险管控策略,提高认知能力察觉不易感知的隐藏灰犀牛;强化创新思维化解常态共存的静止灰犀牛;打造敏捷模式应对突然爆发的冲撞灰犀牛。

关键词: 灰犀牛风险, 分类体系, 演化机制, 风险管控, 管控策略

Abstract:

The properties and risk characteristics of grey rhinos have been deeply investigated and used, which are new emerging concepts and metaphor theories in risk management areas. To prevent and mitigate risks and challenges nowadays, it is urgent to systematically investigate the grey rhino-related contexts. The risk classification system, evolutionary mechanism, and management strategies of grey rhinos were explored by integrating existing theoretical models and risk classification approaches. The results indicated that the grey rhino risk was attributed to objective environmental factors and subjective cognitive factors. Moreover, the grey rhino risk can be divided into hidden, stationary, and collisional gray rhinos based on properties, cognitive, state, time, spatial, and subject perspectives. The risk development trend of each grey rhino species was evaluated based on the mechanism of risk perception, risk distance, and risk framework influence factors. Furthermore, an evolutionary framework of "accumulation-fluctuation-mutation" within a complicated system was proposed to develop risk management strategies and improve cognitive abilities by identifying hidden gray rhinoceroses that were not easily perceived. The innovative idea is strengthened to resolve static grey rhinos of normalized coexistence, and agile mode is created to deal with sudden bursts of collision gray rhinos.

Key words: grey rhino risk, classification system, evolution mechanism, risk management, management strategies

中图分类号:

X913安全系统学

佟瑞鹏, 王乾, 张晓磊, 赵晶荣. 风险动物园(VII):灰犀牛风险分类体系、演化机制与管控策略[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(8): 27-34.

TONG Ruipeng, WANG Qian, ZHANG Xiaolei, ZHAO Jingrong. Risk zoo (VII): risk classification system, evolution mechanism, and management strategies of grey rhino[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(8): 27-34.

图/表 4

参考文献 24

[1]	佟瑞鹏, 胡向阳, 和杰花, 等. 风险动物园(Ⅰ):基于隐喻理论的风险图谱构成与表征[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2023, 33(6):27-34. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0530
	TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, HE Jiehua, et al. Risk zoo (Ⅰ): composition and characterization of risk mapping based on metaphor theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(6):27-34. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.06.0530
[2]	刘莉, 刘玉敏, 任广乾. 中国金融领域的“灰犀牛”及防范[J]. 理论月刊, 2019(9):128-134.
	LIU Li, LIU Yumin, REN Guangqian. "Grey rhinoceros" in China's financial sector and its prevention[J]. Theory Monthly, 2019(9):128-134.
[3]	桂维民. 黑天鹅、灰犀牛事件应对新视角:基于VUCA情境应急管理问题的思考[J]. 中国应急管理, 2023(1):60-61.
[4]	GUO Jeen, XIANG Pengcheng, WANG Xia, et al. Predicting and managing megaproject gray rhino risks with IF-ANP and DEMATEL based on panel data[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2022, 208:DOI:10.1016/j.eswa.2022.118243.
[5]	陆道坤, 李淑婷. 是“神马”还是“灰犀牛”:ChatGPT等大语言模型对教育的多维影响及应对之策[J]. 新疆师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版, 2024, 45(2):106-124
[6]	彭宗超. 风险社会来临:警惕无察觉危机蔓延[J]. 人民论坛, 2012(16):48-49.
[7]	周利敏, 胡项连. 无察觉危机、社会情绪共振及风险管理策略的选择[J]. 中国地质大学学报:社会科学版, 2014, 14(4):108-115.
	ZHOU Limin, HU Xianglian. No perceived crisis, socio-emotional resonance, or risk management strategy selection[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences:Social Sciences Edition, 2014, 14(4):108-115.
[8]	张海波. 中国应急管理的适应性:理论内涵与生成机理[J]. 理论与改革, 2022(4):99-113,167.
	ZHANG Haibo. Adaptability of emergency management in China: theoretical connotation and generation mechanism[J]. Theory and Reform, 2022(4):99-113,167.
[9]	陈宇韬. 适应性理论下的旧城公共空间设计研究[D]. 长沙: 湖南大学, 2017.
	CHEN Yutao. Research on design of public space in old city under adaptability theory[D]. Changsha: Hunan University, 2017.
[10]	任凯, 吴冬芹, 郭黎黎. 基于生命周期理论的公共危机舆情事件研究[J]. 现代信息科技, 2019, 3(24):1-4.
	REN Kai, WU Dongqin, GUO Lili. Study on public crisis and public opinion based on lifecycle theory[J]. Modern Information Technology, 2019, 3(24):1-4.
[11]	王志良, 宋洁琦. 危机事件中公众认知机理与信息响应策略探究:基于危机演进阶段的视角[J]. 理论导刊, 2015(4):23-26.
[12]	钟慧, 邓力源. 风险态度、社会网络与家庭消费[J]. 消费经济, 2015, 31(4):71-75.
[13]	黄杰, 吴佳. 中国大都市的“灰犀牛式危机”与政府风险治理模式的重塑:基于两个典型案例的分析[J]. 公共管理与政策评论, 2021, 10(5):79-94.
	HUANG Jie, WU Jia. "The gray rhino crisis" in chinese metropolis and the remodeling of the government's risk governance model: based on the analysis of two typical cases[J]. Public Administration and Policy Review, 2021, 10(5):79-94.
[14]	WUCKER M. The gray rhino: how to recognize and act on the obvious dangers we ignore[M]. London: Macmillan, 2016:189-190.
[15]	张琢, 李强, 于晗. 复杂社会中灰犀牛式危机的引爆机制与政府风险治理升级[J]. 社会科学家, 2023(6):70-75.
[16]	王锋. 当代风险感知理论研究:流派、趋势与论争[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报:社会科学版, 2013, 26(3):18-24.
	WANG Feng. Contemporary theory of risk perception research: schools,trends and controversies[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics:Social Sciences Edition, 2013, 26(3):18-24.
[17]	尚志海. 基于透镜效应的灾害风险感知理论框架研究[J]. 灾害学, 2024, 39(1):11-16.
	SHANG Zhihai. Research on disaster risk perception framework based on lens effect[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2024, 39(1):11-16.
[18]	范维澄, 刘奕, 翁文国. 公共安全科技的“三角形”框架与“4+1”方法学[J]. 科技导报, 2009, 27(6):3.
	FAN Weicheng, LIU Yi, WENG Wenguo. Triangular framework and "4+1" methodology for public security science and technology[J]. Science & Technology Review, 2009, 27(6):3.
[19]	魏玖长. 风险耦合与级联:社会新兴风险演化态势的复杂性成因[J]. 学海, 2019(4):125-134.
[20]	JAMSHIDI A, AITKADI D, RUIZ A, et al. Dynamic risk assessment of complex systems using FCM[J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2018, 56(3): 1 070-1 088.
[21]	孔锋. 灾害系统视角下的灾害耦合效应探讨[J]. 灾害学, 2024, 39(1):1-5.
	KONG Feng. Discussion on the coupling effect of disasters from the perspective of disaster system[J]. Journal of Catastrophology, 2024, 39(1):1-5.
[22]	于金龙, 王统宇. 复杂适应系统理论视域下廉政风险管理系统构建[J]. 系统科学学报, 2021, 29(3):19-22,33.
	YU Jinlong, WANG Tongyu. Research on risk management of honest management from the perspective of complex adaptive system theory[J]. Chinese Journal of Systems Science, 2021, 29(3):19-22,33.
[23]	陈长坤, 赵冬月. 社会经济视角下新冠肺炎疫情危机推演与防控分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(12):24-29. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.004
	CHEN Changkun, ZHAO Dongyue. Analysis of crisis deduction and prevention and control during COVID-19 pandemic from a socio-economic perspective[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(12):24-29. doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2020.12.004
[24]	魏玖长. 见微知著:潜在风险的科学预判过程分析与能力建设[J]. 公共管理与政策评论, 2021, 10(3):32-41.
	WEI Jiuchang. The process analysis and capability development of scientific inferring the emerging risk using subtle clues[J]. Public Administration and Policy Review, 2021, 10(3):32-41.

灰犀牛类型	管控视角	管控策略
隐藏灰犀牛	风险认知	提高多源异构信息感知能力
隐藏灰犀牛	风险认知	提升潜在风险认知能力
静止灰犀牛	创新思维	健全完善系统性风险监测机制
静止灰犀牛	创新思维	加强常态风险治理的创新思维
冲撞灰犀牛	敏捷治理	提高敏捷治理持续协调能力
冲撞灰犀牛	敏捷治理	塑造敏捷思维的价值观念