基于GRA-SD桥梁工程参建主体组织安全行为脆弱性及韧性分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.09.0079

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为确保桥梁工程施工安全生产投入有效落实,首先利用灰色关联法(GRA)分析项目监理机构和施工单位施工安全行为影响因素的关联度,并确定核心致因要素;然后,构建系统动力学(SD)模型分析各核心致因要素之间的相互作用机制;最后,分析影响施工安全行为的核心致因要素的脆弱性和韧性。结果表明:施工单位两极化罚款、项目监理机构高额监管成本、双方较低的初始比例是桥梁工程施工安全行为的脆弱点;适度的经济罚款和监管成本以及加大培训提高一线人员的安全意识,对提升施工安全行为韧性具有明显效果。

关键词: 灰色关联法(GRA), 系统动力学(SD), 桥梁工程, 参建主体, 安全行为, 脆弱性, 韧性, 施工单位, 项目监理机构

Abstract:

To effectively implement safety production investment in bridge construction projects, GRA was used to analyze the correlation between the influencing factors of construction safety behavior from both the project supervision organization and construction units, and then the core causal factors were determined. Subsequently, a SD model was proposed to investigate the interaction mechanisms among the core causal factors. Finally, the vulnerability and resilience of the core causal factors affecting construction safety behavior were analyzed. The results indicated that extreme fines imposed by construction units, high supervision costs for project monitoring organizations, and low initial proportions between parties were the key vulnerability factors of the safety behavior in bridge construction. Reasonable economic fines, appropriate supervision costs, and enhanced training to improve frontline personnel's safety awareness significantly improved the construction safety behavior resilience.

Key words: grey relational analysis (GRA), system dynamics (SD), bridge engineering, main particip ants, safety behavior, vulnerability, resilience, construction unit, project supervision organization

中图分类号:

张思远, 喻博, 李睿璞, 王群. 基于GRA-SD桥梁工程参建主体组织安全行为脆弱性及韧性分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(9): 41-49.

ZHANG Siyuan, YU Bo, LI Ruipu, WANG Qun. Vulnerability and resilience analysis of safety behavior of organizations participating in bridge engineering based on GRA-SD[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(9): 41-49.

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序号	致因要素	文献来源
1	监管成本J_b、安全生产投入成本S_b	张跃斌^[8]、申玲^[11]等
2	奖励J_j、罚款S_f	王志强^[5]、陈述^[6]等
3	安全人员初始比例Y (施工单位)、X(项目监理机构)	CHEN Fangyu^[4]、 GU Shengyu^[9]等
4	事故发生率P	王志强^[12]、MJAKUSKINA S^[14] 等
5	事故发生后对本单位的损失S_s(施工单位)、 J_s(项目监理机构)	陈雍君^[13]、PENG Wang^[15]等

样本量	S_b/J_b	S_f/J_j	S_s/J_s	Y/X	P
专家1	8/9	7/9	9/8	9/9	6/6
专家2	8/9	8/8	8/9	9/8	7/7
专家3	8/8	7/8	9/7	8/8	5/6
专家4	7/9	8/8	8/9	9/9	8/8
专家5	7/8	8/7	8/9	8/8	6/6
专家6	9/8	8/8	9/8	9/9	7/7
专家7	8/9	7/8	9/9	9/8	6/7
专家8	8/8	8/9	8/8	8/8	5/6
专家9	8/7	7/9	7/9	9/9	7/7
专家10	9/9	9/8	8/8	9/8	9/9

变量类型	变量名称
水平变量 (4个)	项目监理机构—严格监管;项目监理机构—形式监管; 施工单位—规范安全投入;施工单位—不规范安全投入
速率变量 (2个)	项目监理机构严格监管变化率F(x); 施工单位规范施工变化率F(y)
辅助变量 (8个)	项目监理机构对施工单位采取严格监管策略的期望收益U₁₁、采取形式监督的期望收益U₁₂、期望收益差U₁; 施工单位规范安全投入的期望收益U₂₁、不规范安全投入的期望收益U₂₂、期望收益差U₂; 影子变量(x、y)
外部变量 (17个)	施工单位按规范标准及合同要求完成施工任务的正常收益S_z; 项目监理机构按规范标准及合同要求完成监管任务的正常收益J_z; 项目监理机构对施工单位进行安全施工监管的成本J_b; 施工单位根据施工合同规定应对项目投入的安全生产费用S_b; 施工单位对项目实际投入的安全生产费用S_c; 施工单位未规范安全投入,被项目监理机构查处后受到的经济惩罚S_f; 项目监理机构严格监管得到的奖励J_j; 施工单位未规范安全投入,被项目监理机构发现的概率P₁; 项目监理机构严格监管,施工单位未规范安全投入且未被发现发生的安全事故概率P₂; 项目监理机构在P₂情况下产生的损失J_s2; 施工单位在P₂情况下产生的损失S_s2; 项目监理机构未严格监管,施工单位规范安全投入发生的安全事故概率P₃; 项目监理机构在P₃情况下产生的损失J_s3; 施工单位在P₃情况下产生的损失S_s3; 项目监理机构未严格监管,施工单位未规范施工发生的安全事故的概率P₄; 项目监理机构在P₄情况下产生的损失J_s4; 施工单位在P₄情况下产生的损失S_s4

名称		S
		y	1-y
		y	被发现P₁	未被发现(1-P₁)
项目监理机构 (J)	x	J_z-J_b, S_z-S_b	J_z-J_b+J_j, S_z-S_c-S_f	J_z-J_b-P₂×J_s2, S_z-S_c-P₂×S_s2
项目监理机构 (J)	1-x	J_z-P₃×J_s3, S_z-S_b- P₃×S_s3	J_z-P₄×J_s4,S_z-S_c-P₄×S_s4