中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 211-219.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.04.1114

• 公共安全与应急管理 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑恐慌情绪与拥挤规避行为的疏散模型

邓莎1(), 张竟2, 李滢3, 陶振翔3,**()   

  1. 1 湖南开放大学 经济管理学院, 湖南 长沙 410004
    2 三一汽车制造有限公司, 湖南 长沙 410100
    3 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院, 北京 100083
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-14 修回日期:2026-02-04 出版日期:2026-04-28
  • 通信作者:
    **陶振翔(1990—),男,陕西渭南人,博士,副教授,主要从事消防应急疏散等方面的研究。E-mail:
  • 作者简介:

    邓 莎 (1983—),女,湖南长沙人,硕士,讲师,主要从事公共安全管理、应急疏散管理、人力资源管理等方面的研究。E-mail:

    张竟, 高级工程师

  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3011000); 2024年湖南省教育科学“十四五”规划课题项目(XJK24BZY012)

Evacuation model considering panic and crowding avoidance behavior

Deng Sha1(), Zhang Jing2, Li Ying3, Tao Zhenxiang3,**()   

  1. 1 School of Economics & Management, Hunan Open University, Changsha Hunan 410004, China
    2 Sany Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Changsha Hunan 410100, China
    3 School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
  • Received:2025-11-14 Revised:2026-02-04 Published:2026-04-28

摘要:

为探究行人受恐慌驱动与局部高密度区域避让所导致的移动冲突及其对群体疏散效率的影响,考虑行人到出口距离、周围人群密度及情绪感染对个体恐慌情绪的动态影响,以及疏散过程中行人为规避高密度区域的绕行行为以及相互推挤行为,构建恐慌传播模型并在社会力模型(SFM),并引入拥挤规避力与推挤力,提出一种考虑恐慌情绪与拥挤规避行为的人群疏散模型。研究结果表明:疏散过程中适度的拥挤规避行为可在一定程度上提高疏散效率,但过强的相互作用会放大移动冲突与推挤累积导致踩踏发生;低密度条件下,个体恐慌情绪主要受出口距离影响,拥挤规避力整体较弱,而在高密度条件下,出口距离的主导作用减弱,恐慌情绪传播与人群密度叠加形成密度-情绪耦合反馈,这种耦合反馈显著提高了行人拥挤规避力与推挤强度。疏散过程中,行人最大拥挤规避力峰值呈现先升后降趋势,在疏散中后期高推挤阶段,较大的踝关节扭矩权重可显著降低跌倒风险。

关键词: 恐慌情绪, 拥挤规避行为, 人群疏散, 社会力模型(SFM), 情绪感染, 行人跌倒

Abstract:

To investigate the movement conflicts caused by pedestrians driven by panic and the avoidance of locally high-density areas,as well as their impact on crowd evacuation efficiency, the dynamic effects of the distance of pedestrians to the exit, surrounding crowd density and emotional infection on individual panic were considered. In addition, the detouring behavior of pedestrians to avoid the high-density areas and the mutual pushing behavior during evacuation are incorporated. A panic propagation model was constructed based on SFM, and crowding avoidance force and pushing force were introduced to develop a crowd evacuation model considering panic emotion and crowding avoidance behavior. The results indicate that moderate crowding avoidance behavior during evacuation can enhance evacuation efficiency to a certain extent, whereas excessively strong interactions amplify movement conflicts and the accumulation of pushing forces, thereby increasing the risk of stampedes. In low-density evacuation scenarios, individual panic levels are mainly influenced by the distance to exit, and the crowding avoidance force remains relatively weak. In contrast, under high-density situations, the dominant role of exit distance diminishes. The propagation of panic emotions interacts with crowd density to form a “density-emotion” coupled feedback, which significantly increases pedestrian crowding avoidance force and pushing intensity. During evacuation, the maximum crowding avoidance force of pedestrians first increases and then decreases. In the middle and late stages of evacuation, when pushing becomes intense, a larger ankle joint torque weight can significantly reduce the probability of falling.

Key words: panic, crowd avoidance behavior, crowd evacuation, social force model (SFM), emotional infection, pedestrian falls

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