关键词: 累积前景理论(CPT); 多参考点; 应急物流; 路径选择; 可靠性

Abstract: In order to improve the efficiency and reliability of emergency supply transportation, a CPT based model was built after careful consideration of the subjective factors and attitudes of decision makers to risk,for path selection for emergency logistics. Firstly, multiple reference points in the CPT model were expanded according to the features of emergency logistics. Then, travel time and transport volume were selected as two heterogeneous reference points of the model. Two models were built for assuming values to the reference point based on the travel time reliability and the path reconfigurability. Finally, to compare the effects decision makers' risk attitude have on the result of decision making, the decision makers were classified into a risk seeking group and a risk avoiding group in a case study. The results of the case study show that the method accords with the actual decision-making mechanism, by which the rescue efficiency will be effectively enhanced. Moreover, parameter setting has a vital impact on the prospect value of the path.

Key words: cumulative prospect theory(CPT), multiple reference points, emergency logistics, route selection, reliability