降雨型滑坡灾害的约简和逻辑回归预测模型

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.08.001

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 1-6.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.08.001

• 安全科学技术基础学科 • 下一篇

降雨型滑坡灾害的约简和逻辑回归预测模型

卫星君¹ 讲师, 赵晓萌^**2 工程师, 马长玲¹ 讲师, 雷向杰² 教授级高工

1 陕西能源职业技术学院机电与信息工程学院,陕西咸阳 712000;
2 陕西省气候中心,陕西西安 710014

收稿日期:2018-05-10 修回日期:2018-07-15 出版日期:2018-08-28 发布日期:2020-11-25
通讯作者: **赵晓萌(1985—),女,陕西咸阳人,硕士,工程师,主要从事气候监测与灾害评估方面研究。E-mail:xmzhao2011@163.com
作者简介:卫星君(1983—),男,甘肃灵台人,硕士,讲师,主要从事机器学习方面的研究。E-mail:shanxi_edu@126.com。
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”)项目(2013CB430202);陕西省气象局科技创新基金计划资助(2017Y-6);陕西能源职业技术学院科研项目(17KYP02)。

Reduction and logistic regression model for prediction of rainfall landslides disaster

WEI Xingjun¹, ZHAO Xiaomeng², MA Changling¹, LEI Xiangjie²

1 School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering,Shaanxi Energy Institute,Xianyang Shaanxi 712000,China;
2 Shaanxi Provincial Climate Center,Xi' an Shaanxi 710014,China

Received:2018-05-10 Revised:2018-07-15 Online:2018-08-28 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为实现秦巴山区域降雨诱发的滑坡灾害预警,收集处理不同时段滑坡灾害发生点最近区域站大量降雨数据,形成降雨特征滑坡灾害样本数据集;定义降雨型滑坡灾害知识表达系统,利用知识约简和预测结果反馈方法,选取影响滑坡灾害的降雨特征,进而确定发生滑坡灾害的诱发因子;改进逻辑回归方法,提高模型泛化能力,建立约简逻辑回归预测模型,并与不确定朴素贝叶斯模型和遗传神经网络模型对比。结果表明:约简逻辑回归预测模型能有效处理海量高维降雨数据,且预测准确率较高。

关键词: 降雨, 滑坡灾害, 知识约简, 逻辑回归, P-R曲线

Abstract: In order to realize the rainfall-induced landslide disaster warning in Qinba mountain area,data on rainfall at different time points of landslide disasters from the nearest regional stations were collected and processed.The data set on rainfall characteristic landslide disaster was formed.A rainfall landslide knowledge expression system was defined.Knowledge reduction and prediction results feedback were used to filter feature attributes of rainfall.And then inducing factors of landslide disasters were determined.The logistic regression method was improved,the model generalization ability was enhanced and a reduced logistic regression model was established and compared with the uncertain naive Bayes model and the genetic neural network model.Experimental result shows that the reduced logistic regression model can effectively deal with the high-dimensional rainfall data and has a higher prediction precision accuracy.

Key words: rainfall, landslide disaster, knowledge reduction, logistic regression, P-R curve

中图分类号:

X928.03

卫星君, 赵晓萌, 马长玲, 雷向杰. 降雨型滑坡灾害的约简和逻辑回归预测模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(8): 1-6.

WEI Xingjun, ZHAO Xiaomeng, MA Changling, LEI Xiangjie. Reduction and logistic regression model for prediction of rainfall landslides disaster[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(8): 1-6.

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降雨型滑坡灾害的约简和逻辑回归预测模型

Reduction and logistic regression model for prediction of rainfall landslides disaster

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