交通管理政策对车辆不合作变道行为的影响

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.006

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (12): 33-39.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.12.006

交通管理政策对车辆不合作变道行为的影响

周幸楠, 王景升副教授, 朱茵副教授

中国人民公安大学交通管理学院,北京 102623

收稿日期:2018-09-01 修回日期:2018-11-01 发布日期:2020-11-25
作者简介:周幸楠 (1994—),女,四川眉山人,硕士研究生,研究方向为智能交通、交通渠化、交通管理、驾驶行为。E-mail:zhouxingnan2016@126.com。
基金资助:
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAG01B0501)。

Research on defective lane-changing behavior based on system dynamics

ZHOU Xingnan, WANG Jingsheng, ZHU Yin

School of Traffic Management Engineering, People's Public Security University of China, Beijing 102623, China

Received:2018-09-01 Revised:2018-11-01 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究交通管理政策对车辆不合作变道行为的影响,建立车辆变道不合作行为的系统动力学(SD)假设性模型,包括人、车、道路、环境、及交通管理政策等子系统;以实际调研数据为基础,采用AMOS软件进行假设性模型模的可行性分析;构建完整的车辆不合作变道行为SD模型;用SD分析软件VENSIM对该模型进行仿真,并探寻系统内各因素对车辆不合作变道行为产生的动态影响序列。结果表明:通过调控不同的交通安全政策,包括执法力度、及时执法率、安全检查人员数量与培训人员的学习能力,人、车、道路、环境等子系统出现对应的反馈调节,可以不同程度消弱车辆不合作变道行为;在各因素的交互作用下,不合作变道行为演化过程有若干个阶段。

关键词: 车辆不合作变道行为, 影响因素, 系统动力学(SD), 交通安全政策, 模拟仿真

Abstract: To study the influence of a change in the traffic management policy on vehicle defective lane-changing behavior, a hypothetical model of SD for vehicle defective lane-changing behavior was built, including subsystems of human, vehicle, road, environment and traffic management policy. Based on the actual survey data, the feasibility analysis of hypothetical model was carried out by using AMOS software. On this basis, a complete SD model of vehicle defective lane-changing behavior was constructed. Finally, the SD analysis software VENSIM was used to simulate the model, and the dynamic influence sequences of the factors in the system on the defective lane-changing behavior of vehicles were explored. The results show that the subsystems of human, vehicle, road and environment will be regulated accordingly, and the defective lane-changing behavior of vehicles will be weakened to varying degrees by adjusting the traffic safety policy, including law enforcement intensity, timely law enforcement rate, the number of safety inspectors and the learning ability of trainers, and that the interactions between the factors make the evolution process of defective lane-changing behavior have several stages.

Key words: defective lane-changing behavior, influencing factors, system dynamics (SD), traffic safety policy, simulation

中图分类号:

X951

周幸楠, 王景升, 朱茵. 交通管理政策对车辆不合作变道行为的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(12): 33-39.

ZHOU Xingnan, WANG Jingsheng, ZHU Yin. Research on defective lane-changing behavior based on system dynamics[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(12): 33-39.

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交通管理政策对车辆不合作变道行为的影响

Research on defective lane-changing behavior based on system dynamics

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