复杂网络下地铁灾害链演化模型与风险分析*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.020

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (11): 141-147.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn 1003-3033.2021.11.020

复杂网络下地铁灾害链演化模型与风险分析^*

李浩然^1,2 副教授, 王子恒^1,2, 杨起帆³, 张亚君^1,2, 欧阳作林^1,2

1 石家庄铁道大学大型结构健康诊断与控制研究所,河北石家庄 050043;
2 石家庄铁道大学河北省大型结构健康诊断与控制实验室,河北石家庄 050043;
3 中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司城市轨道交通中心,北京 100081

收稿日期:2021-08-15 修回日期:2021-10-10 出版日期:2021-11-28 发布日期:2022-05-28
作者简介:李浩然 (1987—),男,辽宁葫芦岛人,博士,副教授,主要从事地下工程稳定性分析与灾害防治方面的教学和研究工作。E-mail:lihaoran@stdu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
交通工程结构力学行为与系统安全国家重点实验室开放课题(ZZ2021-06);河北省教育厅青年拔尖人才项目(BJ2019011); 河北省重点研发计划项目(19210804D)。

Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network

LI Haoran^1,2, WANG Ziheng^1,2, YANG Qifan³, ZHANG Yajun^1,2, OUYANG Zuolin^1,2

1 Structural Health Monitoring and Control Institute, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang Hebei 050043, China;
2 The Key Laboratory for Health Monitoring and Control of Large Structures, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang Hebei 050043, China;
3 Urban Rail Transit Center, China Academy of Railway Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2021-08-15 Revised:2021-10-10 Online:2021-11-28 Published:2022-05-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探明典型灾害间的传递模式和关键节点对地铁风险防控的影响,应用灾害链和复杂网络理论,评估复杂网络的关键节点和边的脆弱性。首先,统计分析国内外156起地铁重大事故,得出城市轨道交通的典型灾害事件;然后,利用归纳分析法和灾变链式传递理论,构建地铁复杂系统灾害链演化模型;最后,采用度中心性、节点子网数、接近中心性和介数中心性综合分析复杂网络节点的重要性,采用边介数、连通度、平均路径长度评价复杂网络边的脆弱性,得到地铁灾害发展的一级重要节点和一级重要边,确定灾害传递的2条重要路径。结果表明:城市轨道交通各类灾害连接紧密、链生性强,消除地铁机械设备故障、供电系统故障、隧道结构性能劣化事件可以分别将复杂系统安全性提高40%、26%和12%。

关键词: 复杂网络, 地铁灾害链, 演化模型, 风险分析, 脆弱性, 节点重要度

Abstract: In order to explore transmission mode between typical disasters and influence of key nodes on subway risk prevention and control, theories of disaster chain and complex network were adopted to evaluate vulnerability of key nodes and edges of complex network. Firstly, typical disaster events of urban rail transit were obtained by analyzing 156 major subway accidents at home and abroad. Then, an evolution model of disaster chain in subway complex system was established by using inductive analysis method and disaster chain transfer theory. Finally, importance of network nodes were analyzed by degree centrality, node subnet number, proximity centrality and intermediate centrality, and edge vulnerability was evaluated through analyzing number of edge interfaces, connectivity degree and average path length. First-level important nodes and edges of subway disaster development were obtained, and two important routes of disaster transmission were determined. The results show that all kinds of disasters in urban rail transit are closely connected and highly linked, and elimination of subway mechanical equipment failures, power supply system failures and tunnel structural performance deterioration can improve safety of complex systems by 40%, 26% and 12%, respectively.

Key words: complex network, metro disaster chain, evolutionary model, risk assessment, vulnerability, node importance

中图分类号:

X951

李浩然, 王子恒, 杨起帆, 张亚君, 欧阳作林. 复杂网络下地铁灾害链演化模型与风险分析^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(11): 141-147.

LI Haoran, WANG Ziheng, YANG Qifan, ZHANG Yajun, OUYANG Zuolin. Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2021, 31(11): 141-147.

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复杂网络下地铁灾害链演化模型与风险分析^*

Evolutionary model and risk analysis of metro disaster chain under complex network

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