台风特征参数对灾害链概率计算的影响分析*

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0852

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (8): 168-175.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.08.0852

台风特征参数对灾害链概率计算的影响分析*

余强¹(), 黄逸橙², 沙策³

¹ 浙江安防职业技术学院办公室,浙江温州 325035
² 浙江安防职业技术学院发展规划处, 浙江温州 325035
³ 浙江安防职业技术学院应急技术学院,浙江温州 325035

收稿日期:2022-02-27 修回日期:2022-06-16 出版日期:2022-09-05 发布日期:2023-02-28
作者简介:
余强 (1983—),男,湖北黄冈人,硕士,助理研究员,主要从事高等教育、灾害预防理论建模、路线选择以及应急管理等方面的研究。E-mail: yuqiang_02@163.com。
黄逸橙,助理研究员。
沙策,讲师。

Influence analysis on typhoon characteristic parameters on probability calculation of disaster chain

YU Qiang¹(), HUANG Yicheng², SHA Ce³

¹ College Office, Zhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou Zhejiang 325035, China
² Development Planning Office, Zhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou Zhejiang 325035, China
³ School of Emergency Technology, Zhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou Zhejiang 325035, China

Received:2022-02-27 Revised:2022-06-16 Online:2022-09-05 Published:2023-02-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为精准预测台风特征参数对灾害链内各灾害的影响概率,从台风灾害链的构建入手,运用非平衡样本处理算法,结合事故树理论,构建台风灾害链概率计算模型,采用深度学习算法对不同灾害之间的影响进行加权,利用关系矩阵得出不同灾害之间的影响概率,并由计算模型得出具体灾害出现的概率。结果表明:台风特征参数的变化会带来灾害链中原生灾害以及次生灾害计算概率值的变化;台风风力等级越高,对原生灾害概率的影响往往越大于对次级灾害概率的影响;台风轨迹变化主要影响灾害出现的种类,计算结果显示,台风路径越朝向内陆地区则灾害出现的种类就越多;台风叠加数量的增多会显著增加模型计算灾害概率的迭代步数。

关键词: 台风特征参数, 灾害链, 概率计算, 原生灾害, 次生灾害

Abstract:

In order to accurately predict impact probability of typhoon characteristic parameters on each disaster in the disaster chain, a probability calculation model of the chain was constructed by using unbalanced sample processing algorithm and accident tree theory. Then, impact between different disasters was weighted, and impact probability between them was obtained by utilizing relationship matrix. Finally, occurrence probability of specific disasters was derived based on calculation model. The results show that changes in typhoon characteristic parameters will lead to changes in calculated probability of primary and secondary disasters in the chain. The higher the wind scale of typhoon is, the greater impact on primary disaster probability will be than on that of secondary ones. Moreover, changes of typhoon track mainly affect types of disasters, and according calculation results, the more typhoon track faces inland area, the more kinds of disasters will appear. The increase in number of typhoons will significantly increase the model's iteration steps to calculate disaster probability

Key words: typhoon characteristic parameter, disaster chain, probability calculation, primary disaster, secondary disaster

余强, 黄逸橙, 沙策. 台风特征参数对灾害链概率计算的影响分析*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(8): 168-175.

YU Qiang, HUANG Yicheng, SHA Ce. Influence analysis on typhoon characteristic parameters on probability calculation of disaster chain[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(8): 168-175.

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模型参数名称	参数意义	参数初始化值
台风风力	登陆时的风力值(级别)	1~20
台风路径	台风风向与内陆深入方向之间的切角	0~90°
台风数量	登陆时台风数量	1~5

台风特征参数对灾害链概率计算的影响分析*

Influence analysis on typhoon characteristic parameters on probability calculation of disaster chain

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