复杂系统视角下洞室施工人员安全认知仿真研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.02.0995

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为制定有效的安全认知提升策略及减少安全事故的发生,需深入探究洞室施工人员安全认知的演化过程和特征。首先,基于复杂社会技术系统和“2-4”模型(24Model)等相关知识,识别安全认知影响因素,构建洞室施工人员安全认知指标体系;然后,通过Super Decisions软件计算指标权重;随后利用系统动力学(SD)理论,明确各因素间的相互关系,建立包含组织安全管理等4个子系统的SD仿真模型,将以安全投入为基础的认知纠偏机制应用到SD仿真模型;最后,结合实际工程算例开展SD仿真以及敏感性分析。研究表明:随着工程进展,通过增加安全投入,并发挥认知纠偏机制作用,施工人员的整体安全认知由下降趋势转变为缓慢上升趋势;组织安全管理对洞室施工人员安全认知影响程度最大,结果与24Model的基本假设一致,从而验证了SD仿真模型的科学性和有效性。

关键词: 复杂系统, 洞室施工人员, 安全认知, “2-4”模型(24Model), 系统动力学(SD)

Abstract:

To propose effective safety cognition strategies and reduce safety accident occurrence, it is urgent to investigate the safety cognition evolution process and characteristics of cavern constructors. Firstly, factors affecting safety cognition were identified based on a complex sociotechnical system and the 24Model, then a safety cognition index system of cavern constructors was proposed. Subsequently, the weight coefficient was calculated by the Super Decisions software. Then, system dynamic (SD) theory was used to determine the interrelationship between factors. SD numerical model was developed including organizational safety management and other three subsystems, and a cognitive correction mechanism based on safety investments was applied to the SD numerical model. Finally, numerical simulations and sensitive analysis were performed by the SD model based on actual engineering examples. The results indicated that the overall safety cognition of cavern constructors changed from a downward trend to an upward trend by increasing safety investments and exerting the role of cognitive correction mechanisms with project processes. Organizational safety management has the greatest influence on the safety cognition of carve constructors, which was consistent with the assumption of 24Model. Therefore, the scientific performance of the SD numerical model was validated.

Key words: complex system, cavern constructors, safety cognition, "2-4" model(24Model), system dynamics (SD)

中图分类号:

X948

江新, 张腾飞, 陈婧, 赵力, 邱国坤, 王辉. 复杂系统视角下洞室施工人员安全认知仿真研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(2): 22-30.

JIANG Xin, ZHANG Tengfei, CHEN Jing, ZHAO Li, QIU Guokun, WANG Hui. Numerical study on safety cognition of cavern constructors from perspective of complex system[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(2): 22-30.

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一级指标	综合权重	二级指标	综合权重	三级指标	综合权重	一级指标	综合权重	二级指标	综合权重	三级指标	综合权重
A	0.165 18	A₁	0.067 54	A₁₁	0.023 95	C	0.161 37	C₁	0.073 97	C₁₁	0.026 39
				A₁₂	0.024 29					C₁₂	0.024 89
				A₁₃	0.019 29					C₁₃	0.022 69
		A₂	0.076 55	A₂₁	0.031 21			C₂	0.059 28	C₂₁	0.009 66
				A₂₂	0.023 91					C₂₂	0.024 23
				A₂₃	0.021 43					C₂₃	0.013 16
		A₃	0.021 10	A₃₁	0.021 10					C₂₄	0.012 23
B	0.396 27	B₁	0.091 57	B₁₁	0.022 21			C₃	0.028 12	C₃₁	0.028 12
				B₁₂	0.017 37	D	0.277 18	D₁	0.080 46	D₁₁	0.024 73
				B₁₃	0.020 29					D₁₂	0.028 15
				B₁₄	0.031 71					D₁₃	0.027 59
		B₂	0.118 56	B₂₁	0.021 61			D₂	0.074 36	D₂₁	0.032 42
				B₂₂	0.020 71					D₂₂	0.025 00
				B₂₃	0.020 02					D₂₃	0.016 94
				B₂₄	0.019 17			D₃	0.122 35	D₃₁	0.025 46
				B₂₅	0.037 05					D₃₂	0.024 14
		B₃	0.186 14	B₃₁	0.066 43					D₃₃	0.021 14
				B₃₂	0.059 86					D₃₄	0.029 02
				B₃₃	0.059 85					D₃₅	0.022 59

指标/数据	影响程度初值
指标	A₁₁	A₁₂	A₁₃	A₂₁	A₂₂	A₂₃	A₃₁	B₁₁	B₁₂	B₁₃	B₁₄	B₂₁	B₂₂
数据	1.7	3.4	6.3	5.5	3.2	7.6	4.5	2.8	8.5	3.6	3.3	5.3	4.2
指标	B₂₃	B₂₄	B₂₅	B₃₁	B₃₂	B₃₃	C₁₁	C₁₂	C₁₃	C₂₁	C₂₂	C₂₃	C₂₄
数据	5.3	5.1	6.3	8.4	8.6	7.8	2.5	2.6	2.1	2.5	4.6	3.1	6.2
指标	C₃₁	D₁₁	D₁₂	D₁₃	D₂₁	D₂₂	D₂₃	D₃₁	D₃₂	D₃₃	D₃₄	D₃₅	—
数据	5.8	3.5	6.1	7.4	5.8	8.6	9.1	3.2	6.3	5.4	3.1	4.8	—