融合异质层次因果图的尾矿堆积坝安全状态分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.07.1892

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (7): 53-62.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.07.1892

融合异质层次因果图的尾矿堆积坝安全状态分析

阮顺领¹^,²^,³(), 韩思淼¹^,²^,^**(), 殷一涵¹, 刘迪¹^,³, 刘佳佳¹^,², 江松¹^,²^,³

¹ 西安建筑科技大学资源工程学院,陕西西安 710055
² 西安建筑科技大学矿山系统工程研究所,陕西西安 710055
³ 西安市智慧工业感知计算与决策重点实验室,陕西西安 710055

收稿日期:2024-01-11 修回日期:2024-04-13 出版日期:2024-07-28
通信作者:
^** 韩思淼(1999—),女,安徽阜阳人,硕士研究生,研究方向为矿山安全智能分析。E-mail: Hansimiao68@163.com。
作者简介:
阮顺领 (1981—),男,河南周口人,博士,教授,主要从事矿山系统优化与管理方面的研究。E-mail: ruanshunling@163.com。
刘迪工程师；
江松教授
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52374160); 陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2022JM-201)

Tailings accumulation dam safety state analysis by integrating heterogeneous hierarchical graph

RUAN Shunling¹^,²^,³(), HAN Simiao¹^,²^,^**(), YIN Yihan¹, LIU Di¹^,³, LIU Jiajia¹^,², JIANG Song¹^,²^,³

¹ School of Resources Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an Shaanxi 710055, China
² Institute of Mine Systems Engineering, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an Shaanxi 710055, China
³ Xi'an Key Laboratory of Perceptive Computing and Decision for Intelligent Industry, Xi'an Shaanxi 710055, China

Received:2024-01-11 Revised:2024-04-13 Published:2024-07-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究尾矿堆积坝内外部因素对堆积坝体安全状态的影响,提出基于异质层次图的尾矿堆积坝安全状态分析方法。该方法通过构建异质层次因果图,将环境、渗流场和应力场等关键因素与堆积坝安全状态建立联系,并结合异质节点属性特征,形成环-渗-应安全状态分析指标体系;通过提出定量指标动态等级区间计算方法和安全状态等级计算模型,将坝体安全状态定性问题的模糊性转化为定量化表达,实现对尾矿堆积坝安全等级评价;以洛阳某尾矿坝为例验证模型的科学性。结果表明:该模型能合理定量分析因素与状态之间联系,并找出堆积坝负向演化的敏感性因素,给后续筑坝过程的安全管理提供决策依据。

关键词: 异质层次因果图, 尾矿堆积坝, 安全状态, 云模型, 集对分析

Abstract:

In order to investigate the influence of internal and external factors on the safety state of the tailings dam, a method for analysing the safety state of the tailings dam based on heterogeneous hierarchical diagrams was proposed. Firstly, a hierarchical causal graph was constructed based on a priori knowledge to link key factors such as environment, seepage field and stress field with the safety status of tailing dams, and an evaluation index system was established by combining the attribute characteristics of heterogeneous nodes. Secondly, the cloud model and set-pair analysis theory were used to quantitatively calculate the potential logical relationship between the heterogeneous causal graph and the safety stability of the tailings dam. A dynamic interval calculation method for quantitative indicators and a safety status level calculation model were proposed to convert the fuzziness and uncertainty of complex and diverse evaluation indicators into quantitative expressions. Finally, a tailings dam in Luoyang was used as an example to verify the scientificity of the model.The results show that the model can quantitatively analyse the link between factors and states and identify the causes of negative changes in stacked dams. The conclusions of the model analysis can be used for the safety management of the dam-building process.

Key words: heterogeneous hierarchical causal graph, tailings accumulation dam, safety situation, cloud model, set pair analysis

中图分类号:

X936

阮顺领, 韩思淼, 殷一涵, 刘迪, 刘佳佳, 江松. 融合异质层次因果图的尾矿堆积坝安全状态分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(7): 53-62.

RUAN Shunling, HAN Simiao, YIN Yihan, LIU Di, LIU Jiajia, JIANG Song. Tailings accumulation dam safety state analysis by integrating heterogeneous hierarchical graph[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(7): 53-62.

图/表 14

图1

图2

图3

图4

图5

图6

表1

越小越优型指标动态等级区间

等级	等级标准
等级	$H e > E n 3$	$H e ≤ E n 3$
等级Ⅰ	[ $y m i n, E x + 0.67 S$ ]	[ $y m i n, E x + 0.67 E n$ ]
等级Ⅱ	[ $E x + 0.67 S, E x + S$ ]	[ $E x + 0.67 E n, E x + E n$ ]
等级Ⅲ	[ $E x + S, E x + 2 S$ ]	[ $E x + E n, E x + 2 E n$ ]
等级Ⅳ	[ $E x + 2 S, 3 S$ ], $y m a x < E x + 3 S$ [ $E x + 2 S, y m a x$ ], $y m a x ≥ E x + 3 S$	[ $E x + 2 E n, E x + 3 E n$ ], $y m a x < E x + 3 E n$ [ $E x + 2 E n, y m a x$ ], $y m a x ≥ E x + 3 E n$

表1

表2

越大越优型指标动态等级区间

等级	等级标准
等级	$H e > E n 3$	$H e ≤ E n 3$
等级Ⅰ	[ $E x - 0.67 S, y m a x$ ]	[ $E x - 0.67 E n, y m a x$ ]
等级Ⅱ	[ $E x - S, E x - 0.67 S$ ]	[ $E x - E n, E x - 0.67 E n$ ]
等级Ⅲ	[ $E x - 2 S, E x - S$ ]	[ $E x - 2 E n, E x - E n$ ]
等级Ⅳ	[ $E x - 3 S, E x - 2 S$ ], $y m i n ≥ E x - 3 S$ [ $y m i n, E x - 2 S$ ], $y m i n < E x + 3 S$	[ $E x - 3 E n, E x - 2 E n$ ], $y m i n ≥ E x - 3 E n$ [ $y m i n, E x - 2 E n$ ], $y m i n < E x - 3 E n$

表2

图7

表3

指标分级结果

参数指标	分级标准
参数指标	I级	Ⅱ级	Ⅲ级	Ⅳ级
降雨量X₁₁/mm	[0,0.11)	[0.11,0.214)	[0.214,9.4)	[9.4,80]
地震烈度 $X 1 2$ /度	[0,3)	[3,6)	[6,9)	[9,15]
地形地质 $X 1 3$	[0.8,1)	[0.35,0.8)	[0.05,0.35)	[0,0.05]
排放工艺 $X 1 4$	[1.3,1.37)	[1.37,1.38)	[1.38,1.40)	[1.40,1.43]
库水位X₂₁/m	[1 431.67,1 432.19)	[1 432.19,1 432.23)	[1 432.23,1 432.35)	[1 432.35,1 432.48]
浸润线X₂₂/m	[19.32,37.65)	[37.65,39.52)	[39.52,45.19)	[45.19,50.86]
干滩长度X₂₃/m	[310.58,546.58]	[298.55,310.58)	[262.09,298.55)	[224.8,262.09)
渗流量X₂₄/(L·s^-1)	[0,0.01)	[0.01,1)	[1,10)	(10,20]
表面位移X₃₁/mm	[-0.28,0]	[-0.34, -0.28)	[-0.52, -0.34)	[-13.29, -0.52)
表面位移X₃₁/mm	[0,1.98)	[1.98,2.79)	[2.79,5.23)	[5.23,40]
内部位移X₃₂/mm	[-0.77,0]	[-1.10, -0.77)	[-2.10, -1.10)	[-20.30, -2.10)
内部位移X₃₂/mm	[0,0.80)	[0.80,1.14)	[1.14,2.17)	[2.17,20.30]
安全超高X₃₃/m	[4.19,7.21]	[4.03,4.19)	[3.54,4.03)	[3.05,3.54)
尾矿性质X₃₄/mm	[0,0.1)	[0.1,0.3)	[0.3,0.6)	[0.6,1.0]

表3

表4

表5

状态等级评估结果

参数指标	评估等级	参数指标	评估等级
$X 11$	Ⅲ	$X 23$	Ⅱ
$X 12$	Ⅱ	$X 24$	Ⅲ
$X 13$	Ⅱ	$X 31$	Ⅱ
$X 14$	Ⅱ	$X 32$	Ⅲ
$X 21$	Ⅲ	$X 33$	Ⅱ
$X 22$	Ⅱ	$X 34$	Ⅱ

表5

表6

表7

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评估等级	Ⅰ	Ⅱ	Ⅲ	Ⅳ
SHI(H)	2.063 9	1.573 2	1.780 0	1.713 3
s	0.289 5	0.220 6	0.249 6	0.240 3
置信区间	0.289 5	0.510 1	—	—

坝体级别	1		2		3
运行工况	瑞典圆弧法	简化毕肖普法	瑞典圆弧法	简化毕肖普法	瑞典圆弧法	简化毕肖普法
正常运行	1.30	1.50	1.25	1.35	1.20	1.30

地层	指标
	天然重度γ/ (kN·m^-3)	固结快剪		渗透系数/ (cm·s^-1)
	天然重度γ/ (kN·m^-3)	黏聚力 C/kPa	内摩擦角 ϕ/(°)	渗透系数/ (cm·s^-1)
人工填土-1	20.0	20	18	—
人工填土-2	22.0	0	40	—
尾细砂	22.6	0	85	—
尾粉砂	21.1	13.0	33.0	1.65^-4
尾粉土	21.4	12.0	30.0	4.93×10^-5
尾粉质黏土	21.7	14.0	26.0	1.34^-5
尾黏土	17.3	18.0	19.0	6.01^-6
粉质黏土	19.1	17.0	15.0	1.65×10^-6
强风化、中风化基岩层	23.0	18.0	19.0	9.32^-6

融合异质层次因果图的尾矿堆积坝安全状态分析

Tailings accumulation dam safety state analysis by integrating heterogeneous hierarchical graph

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