中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 120-126.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.04.1080

• 安全工程技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

外部风险冲击下集群式供应链网络恢复策略仿真

田杰鑫1(), 何宇 副教授2, 覃朝晖 教授2   

  1. 1 中国地质大学(武汉) 经济管理学院,湖北 武汉 430078
    2 三峡大学 经济与管理学院,湖北 宜昌 443002
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-25 修回日期:2025-02-18 出版日期:2025-04-28
  • 作者简介:

    田杰鑫 (1998—),女,湖北宜昌人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为产业链和供应链。E-mail:

  • 基金资助:
    湖北省自然科学基金资助(2022CFB751)

Simulation of cluster supply chain network recovery strategy under external risk shock

TIAN Jiexin1(), HE Yu2, QIN Zhaohui2   

  1. 1 School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan Hubei 430078, China
    2 College of Economics and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China
  • Received:2024-11-25 Revised:2025-02-18 Published:2025-04-28

摘要:

为预防外部风险对集群式供应链网络造成的冲击,基于级联失效理论探索外部风险在集群式供应链网络中的传播机制,并使用Python进行数值仿真以探索遏制外部风险冲击下集群式供应链网络风险传播的可行策略。结果表明:重要企业实施风险耐受性提升策略不能阻止网络最终崩溃,但可有效延缓风险传播的速度并减轻每一步风险传播过程中的影响程度;重要企业实施风险遏止能力提升策略可有效阻止风险在网络中传播,防止集群式供应链网络瘫痪;供应链全局实施风险耐受性提升策略可有效阻止风险在网络中的蔓延并防止网络的崩溃;建立供应链风险分担机制虽然不能阻止蓄意攻击下集群式供应链网络瘫痪,但可有效减少随机攻击下失效节点数并防止集群式供应链网络瘫痪。

关键词: 外部风险, 集群式供应链网络, 恢复策略, 级联失效, 复杂网络

Abstract:

To prevent the impact of external risks on cluster supply chain network, the propagation mechanism of external risks in cluster supply chain network was explored based on cascade failure theory. Feasible strategies to curb the spread of risks in cluster supply chain networks under external risk impacts were also explored through numerical simulation using Python. The results indicate that implementing risk tolerance enhancement strategies in important enterprises cannot prevent the eventual collapse of the network, but can effectively slow down the speed of risk propagation and reduce the impact of each step in the risk propagation process. However, the implementation of risk mitigation strategies by important enterprises can effectively prevent the spread of risks in the network and prevent the collapse of clustered supply chain networks. The implementation of risk tolerance enhancement strategies in the global supply chain can effectively prevent the spread of risks in the network and prevent network collapse. Although establishing a supply chain risk sharing mechanism cannot prevent cluster supply chain network paralysis under deliberate attacks, it can effectively reduce the number of failed nodes under random attacks and prevent cluster supply chain network paralysis.

Key words: external risk, cluster supply chain network, recovery strategy, cascading failure, complex network

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