关键词: 云模型, 大雾中船舶, 靠泊作业, 风险评估, 层次分析法(AHP), 决策试验和评价试验(DEMATEL)方法

Abstract:

To mitigate the occurrence of berthing accidents in fog, this study constructed a cloud model-based visual risk assessment framework for ship berthing operations under dense foggy conditions. Within this framework, a comprehensive risk assessment index system was first established, encompassing four dimensions: personnel involved in berthing, vessel characteristics, berth facilities, and environmental conditions. Subsequently, the combined AHP and DEMATEL method was employed to calculate the integrated influence weights of each assessment indicator. To address the uncertainty inherent in berthing risks, the cloud model was introduced to quantify the risks associated with foggy berthing operations. Finally, the proposed framework was applied to evaluate four typical berthing scenarios at the Waigaoqiao Container Terminal of Shanghai Port. The results demonstrate that the marine clearance (fore and aft distance) at the berth, the proficiency of pilots in foggy berthing operations, and the positioning effectiveness of berth leading marks or lights significantly influence the risk levels of ship berthing in fog. This risk assessment model accurately evaluates and visually represents berthing risks across different scenarios. It thus holds substantial importance for ensuring all-weather berthing operations and enhancing port cargo throughput capacity.

Key words: cloud model, ships in heavy fog, berthing operations, risk assessment, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method