化工园区重大危险源安全风险防控体系研究进展

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0810

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (1): 146-156.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2026.01.0810

化工园区重大危险源安全风险防控体系研究进展

王杰¹^,²(), 张明广¹^,²^,^**(), 程晋强¹^,², 蒋军成¹^,², 王爽¹^,²^,³, 江嘉仪¹^,²

¹ 南京工业大学安全科学与工程学院,江苏南京 210009
² 江苏省危险化学品本质安全与控制技术重点实验室,江苏南京 210009
³ 南京市特种设备安全监督检验研究院,江苏南京 210009

收稿日期:2025-08-21 修回日期:2025-11-03 出版日期:2026-01-28
通信作者:
** 张明广(1981—),男,江苏南京人,博士,教授,主要从事化工过程本质安全理论及技术、事故调查与分析技术、工业装置定量风险评价等方面的研究。E-mail: mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn。
作者简介:
王杰 (1999—),男,甘肃陇南人,博士研究生,主要研究方向为油气储运装置失效分析、安全屏障效能评估。E-mail: 202462101012@njut.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3016201); 江苏省重点研发计划项目(BE2023809); 江苏省化工本质安全研究院揭榜挂帅项目(202440496); 江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX25_1813)

Research progress on safety risk prevention and control system for major hazard installations in chemical parks

WANG Jie¹^,²(), ZHANG Mingguang¹^,²^,^**(), CHENG Jinqiang¹^,², JIANG Juncheng¹^,², WANG Shuang¹^,²^,³, JIANG Jiayi¹^,²

¹ College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009, China
² Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Control, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009, China
³ Nanjing Special Equipment Safety Supervision Inspection and Research Institute, Nanjing Jiangsu 210009, China

Received:2025-08-21 Revised:2025-11-03 Published:2026-01-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为应对化工园区重大危险源的高风险特性与事故后果级联的扩散效应,构建其安全风险防控体系并进行优化;系统综述园区重大危险源安全风险分析方法和多米诺事故链演化方法的优缺点;总结园区内安全屏障的定义、分类以及效能评估指标和评估模型;提出园区安全屏障新分类模式,即物理设施、自动技术、操作程序和组织管理;确定园区安全屏障关键评估指标,即有效性、可靠性,并阐述未来研究方向。结果表明:该体系揭示了园区重大危险源安全风险分析、多米诺事故链演化与安全屏障间动态闭环管控的内在机制,较好解决了传统方法的静态局限;新分类模式和关键评估指标为园区安全屏障效能量化提供了新范式。

关键词: 化工园区, 重大危险源, 安全风险分析, 防控体系, 多米诺事故链, 安全屏障

Abstract:

To address the high-risk characteristics and cascading propagation effects of accident consequences of major hazard installations in chemical parks, the framework of the safety risk prevention and control system was constructed and optimized. The advantages and disadvantages of safety risk analysis methods for major hazard installations and the evolution analysis methods of domino accident chains were systematically reviewed. The definition, classification, and efficacy evaluation indicators and models of safety barriers in chemical parks were summarized. A new classification pattern for safety barriers in chemical parks was proposed, encompassing physical facilities, automated technologies, operational procedures, and organizational management. Key assessment indicators for safety barriers in chemical parks were identified, namely effectiveness and reliability, and future research directions were outlined. The results show that the proposed system reveals the intrinsic mechanism of dynamic closed-loop control among safety risk analysis, domino accident chain evolution, and safety barriers for major hazard installations in chemical parks, thereby effectively overcoming the static limitations of traditional approaches. The new classification pattern and key assessment indicators provide a novel paradigm for quantifying the effectiveness of safety barriers in chemical parks.

Key words: chemical parks, major hazard installations, safety risk analysis, prevention and control ssytem, domino accident chain, safety barriers

中图分类号:

X937

王杰, 张明广, 程晋强, 蒋军成, 王爽, 江嘉仪. 化工园区重大危险源安全风险防控体系研究进展[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2026, 36(1): 146-156.

WANG Jie, ZHANG Mingguang, CHENG Jinqiang, JIANG Juncheng, WANG Shuang, JIANG Jiayi. Research progress on safety risk prevention and control system for major hazard installations in chemical parks[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2026, 36(1): 146-156.

图/表 9

图1

表1

化工园区储罐安全风险分析方法

分析方法	特征	局限性对园区风险防控的影响
危险与可操作性分析^[11] (危害辨识)	系统全面地识别潜在风险、可实现事前预防动态适应性不足、定性依赖经验	特殊作业动态风险预见不足使预警资源配置失准
安全检查表分析^[24] (危害辨识)	灵活性强、适用性广、助于发现一些非典型的风险静态清单与动态现场脱节、易致风险疏漏	企业安全状态评估失真使园区监管资源配置失准
故障模式与影响分析^[12] (危害辨识)	分析全面、易于量化排序、可用于事前预防性分析工作量大、用于硬件故障分析、系统级联性缺乏	复杂事故链预见性不足使园区应急准备薄弱与阻断失效
保护层分析^[13] (危害辨识)	结构清晰、识别关键保护层、聚焦SIL定级理想假设存在偏差、且高度依赖初始事件与数据	高估园区实际安全裕度使应急预案与真实风险失配
工作安全分析^[14] (危害辨识)	直观聚焦操作、可提升安全意识并支撑规程制定分析视野受限、存在系统性风险疏漏与人为偏差	交叉作业与承包商风险管控薄弱使园区预警干预能力不足
故障树^[15] (风险评估)	兼容数据缺失与模糊、随机及认知不确定性分析静态逻辑与动态耦合失配、准则模糊	低估人因管理等系统性风险使园区监管难触及结构性隐患
事件树^[4] (风险评估)	事故逻辑清晰、兼具动态风险定量捕捉能力数据依赖性及路径固化与不确定性失配问题	初期事故路径覆盖不足使园区准备缺失而响应滞后
贝叶斯网络^[16] (风险评估)	数据需求兼容随机、时序及不确定性计算复杂、存储需求激增、先验主观性与数据匮乏	监测系统存在系统性偏差使园区数据稀缺风险响应滞后
蒙特卡罗^[17] (风险评估)	不确定性分析可视化、关键因素辨识优化对数据及极端事件高敏感性、且计算成本高昂	人为因素致风险分析失真使园区风险识别能力不足
Petri网^[18] (风险评估)	动态建模能力突出、兼具扩展性与不确定性分析计算复杂度高且对数据敏感	难以支撑园区宏观实时风险态势研判与多要素动态关联分析
蝴蝶结图^[19] (风险评估)	风险沟通直观、数据驱动不确定性量化能力增强主观性强与屏障理想化共因失效制约评估可靠性	高估企业风险防控水平使园区应急资源过载与事故升级
风险矩阵^[20] (风险评估)	系统性增强、不确定性量化能力提升权重主观性强、且存在计算瓶颈与冗余不足	风险优先级失准导致资源错配使园区忽视高影响低概率事件
基于仿真模拟、智能化算法等,或者上述方法组合形式等^{[11,17,25,32]}	场景适配精准度提高、智能驱动风险维度拓展标准缺失、通用性不足制约结果可比性	多为特定事故情景使园区层面使用范围受限

表1

表2

化工园区储罐事故链演化分析方法

分析方法	特征	缺陷
典型事故案例分析^[26]	火灾、冲击波与碎片等能量形式驱动事故升级,其链长取决于效应管理的时效与效能	历史数据的非完备性与路径依赖性
事故统计+事件树^[4,6]	储罐区多米诺事故高发(35%以上),可量化其多情景演化路径与概率	静态逻辑结构与简化的独立性假设
事故统计+故障树^[7]	储罐区70%事故引发多米诺效应,43%导致蒸气云爆炸,可识别主导事故链路径	静态逻辑结构与简化的独立性假设
事故统计+贝叶斯网络^[4,16]	解决不确定性问题,可量化火灾、爆炸等多米诺事故链的演化路径与概率	高度依赖于条件概率表先验知识的准确性
动态图模拟方法^[28]	可量化时空耦合效应下的事故链传播机制	难以精确量化评估风险水平
蝴蝶结图^[19]	实现多米诺效应定量分析与可视化	难以量化评估多屏障在耦合事故下系统性失效的概率
蒙特卡罗^[17]	研究储罐多米诺事故链动态演化路径和发生概率	准确性受限于输入参数的概率分布
地理信息系统^[29]	自动识别可能升级效应目标,直接计算可能的多米诺骨牌情景和对应的风险指标	无法独立推演事故链动态演化过程,必须与其他动态模型耦合
事故统计+概率模型^[30]	预测可能发生的多米诺事故链及影响	数据匮乏与模型简化的“瓶颈”
结构响应+Probit 模型^[22,31]	提高储罐火灾升级Probit模型的准确性	缺乏成熟、通用的多灾种耦合模型与简化的工程判据
数值模拟方法^[32]	全面地模拟储罐池火后果,并且准确地评估协同效应下多米诺效应和事故链演化路径规律	计算成本高昂,无法直接用于需要成千上万次模拟的概率风险评估
机器学习^[22]	评估储罐火灾多米诺效应,预测其屈服强度与动态故障	严重依赖数据集的数量与质量,易导致模型过拟合或外推预测不可靠

表2

图2

表3

表4

表5

表6

4类安全屏障效能评估模型

安全屏障类型	效能评估模型
物理设施	特征:在消防单元,关联安全屏障完整性等级与事故概率,评估其充分性并量化屏障失效风险^[47] 输入(出):安全屏障故障概率等作为输入,设施发生火灾概率作为输出,作为评价安全屏障是否满足防控需求的依据
物理设施	特征:在储罐区,基于ABAQUS软件建立安全屏障下储罐失效时间判据模型,偏差降低11.74%^[5] 输入(出):防火涂层和水喷淋系统下储罐失效过程参数等作为输入,储罐失效时间作为输出,为控制多米诺效应的传播提供判据
自动技术	特征:在浮式装卸油区,基于马尔可夫和Petri网构建安全屏障效能评估模型,用于安全屏障动态效能分析和气体泄漏事故升级概率计算^[48] 输入(出):安全屏障动静态参数等作为输入,平均故障概率(可用性)和事故升级概率(有效性)作为输出,相比下数量级相同且数值略高
自动技术	特征:在化工生产过程,基于模糊贝叶斯网络与保护层分析评估安全仪表系统效能,并实现故障概率动态更新,划分安全完整性等级,相比下偏差降低了14.6%^[44] 输入(出):安全仪表系统故障概率等作为输入、频率和风险等级作为输出,完成安全完整性分级
操作程序	特征:在储罐区,利用火灾升级概率和人因失误概率构建多米诺-人为干预模型,动态贝叶斯网络分析初始事故场景和安全屏障下事故场景,发现人为干预会降低储罐安全性^[49] 输入(出):人因失误概率和安全屏障性能可靠性概率量值等作为输入,储罐火灾发生(升级)概率为输出,发现考虑人为可靠性时,防护设施延迟启动,加剧储罐火灾风险
	特征:在化工园区应急救援环节,结合改进层次分析与熵权法,构建人因可靠性定量模型,评估应急行为失误概率与严重程度^[43] 输入(出):人为错误概率等作为输入,化工园区综合应急能力量值为输出,有效识别关键应急行为,提升园区应急救援能力
	特征:在化工厂,基于技术操作和组织因素的频率和弹性,评估安全屏障效能,以降低事故概率^[50] 输入(出):安全屏障的置信水平、技术、运营和组织因素量值等作为输入,安全屏障效能量值作为输出,评估工艺区域的安全风险
	特征:在加油站,基于人因可靠性分析、模糊综合评价、可靠性等级、专家评分法建立多维结构下安全屏障半定量评估框架,确定屏障评估指标,并对评估结果归一化处理^[51] 输入(出):人因可靠性概率、技术、组织管理、应急效能系数等作为输入,整体安全屏障效能评价结果作为输出,相比下考虑更全面
物理设施自动技术操作程序	特征:在石化企业,明确安全屏障效能评估指标,基于事件树考虑不同安全屏障的效能概率,在多米诺效应风险评估中更详细地预测次生事故发生概率^[45] 输入(出):安全屏障的可用性、有效性量值等作为输入,火灾事故升级概率作为输出,可对多米诺事故情景进行更全面的评估,确定未缓解、缓解情景,抑制多米诺事故链的概率和频率
物理设施自动技术操作程序	特征:在化工生产过程,基于动态仿真技术,量化独立保护层中人因失误概率,将动态仿真与人为可靠性分析结合,实现对人因失误全面分析^[52] 输入(出):事故情景、人因失误概率量值等作为输入,人为可靠性概率作为输出,在保护层评估过程考虑人为干预因素的影响
物理技术自动技术组织管理	特征:在石化企业,利用蝴蝶结图识别关键安全屏障,并评估其效能(响应时间、置信度等),判断安全屏障数量和可靠性是否满足风险控制需求^[2] 输入(出):安全屏障可靠性量化值、安全管理权重等作为输入,安全风险评估结果作为输出,侧重于安全管理评估,为工厂检查提供了更加明确的参考
物理技术自动技术组织管理	特征:在石油开采平台,通过贝叶斯网络实现对潜在事故情景精确建模,进而评估安全屏障效能,通过处理偏差和弹性反应策略,定期迭代动态风险评估效果^[46] 输入(出):安全屏障失效概率等作为输入,安全措施整体性能评估结果作为输出,实现了动态风险评估和管理
物理技术自动技术操作程序组织管理	特征:在石化企业,贝叶斯网络节点代表物理技术类和自动技术类安全屏障健康状态,通过人因可靠性分析评估操作程序和组织管理类安全屏障^[41] 输入(出):安全屏障正常/异常/时间序列数据、权重系数等作为输入,事故后果概率作为输出,继而进行风险量化评估

表6

图3

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来源	具体分类名称	分类依据
SKLET^[33] LIU Yiliu^[34] YUAN Shuaiqi等^[36] WANG Haishun等^[37] 曾涛等^[10] WANG Jie等^[38]	被动、主动屏障	存在形态作用机制防护范围失效逻辑
	物理、技术、操作屏障
	物理、非物理屏障
	静态、动态、时间屏障
	常规、应急屏障
	软连接、硬连接屏障
	技术、非技术屏障
	预防、缓解、控制型屏障
	永久型、暂时型屏障
	物理、标识、行为屏障

屏障类别	举例
物理设施	防火涂层、防爆涂层、防爆墙等
自动技术	自动水喷淋系统、安全仪表系统、自动报警系统、过程控制系统等
操作程序	标准操作程序、员工培训认证、应急响应计划、风险评估管理等
组织管理	安全管理体系、安全委员会小组、政策规章制度、安全文化建设等

评估指标	取值	定义
置信水平	[0-1]	主要功能正常运行时的可用性
响应时间/s	—	主要功能发挥的时间
经济影响/元	—	所需成本及获得的效益
有效性	[0-1]	成功激活后阻止升级的概率
可用性	[0-1]	量化后的按需失效概率
适应性	[0-1]	在不失去其主要功能的情况下承受极端干预能力
可恢复性	[0-1]	在中断之后自行恢复的能力
弹性、韧性	[0-1]	吸收(抵抗)、适应和恢复能力

化工园区重大危险源安全风险防控体系研究进展

Research progress on safety risk prevention and control system for major hazard installations in chemical parks

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