基于灰犀牛理论的安全生产三道防线内涵解析与体系构建

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1334

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (9): 52-59.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2025.09.1334

• 安全社会科学与安全管理 • 上一篇下一篇

基于灰犀牛理论的安全生产三道防线内涵解析与体系构建

佟瑞鹏¹(), 王乾¹, 安宇¹^,^**(), 赵晶荣¹, 常维纯², 苟泽念²

¹ 中国矿业大学(北京) 应急管理与安全工程学院,北京 100083
² 国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司,天津 300457

收稿日期:2025-05-17 修回日期:2025-07-12 出版日期:2025-09-28
通信作者:
**安宇(1976—),男,黑龙江海伦人,博士,研究员, 教授，主要从事行为安全、安全教育等方面的研究。E-mail: anyu@cumtb.edu.cn。
作者简介:
佟瑞鹏 (1977—),男,黑龙江穆棱人,博士,教授,主要从事行为安全管理、职业心理健康、环境风险评估等方面的研究。E-mail: tongrp@cumtb.edu.cn。
常维纯高级工程师
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(52074302); 国家管网集团科学技术研究总院分公司科研项目(GWHT20250000101)

Connotation analysis and system construction of three lines of defense for work safety based on grey rhino theory

TONG Ruipeng¹(), WANG Qian¹, AN Yu¹^,^**(), ZHAO Jingrong¹, CHANG Weichun², GOU Zenian²

¹ School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
² PipeChina Research Institute of Science and Technology, Tianjin 300457, China

Received:2025-05-17 Revised:2025-07-12 Published:2025-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探析灰犀牛风险在安全生产领域的理论贡献和应用价值,融合灰犀牛理论内涵与外延,开展安全生产三道防线研究的多元视角融合和思维范式突破。遵循概念整合路径分析、情景演化链条推演和三道防线体系构建3部分内容构建安全生产灰犀牛内涵解析与防控体系。结果表明:灰犀牛风险与安全生产危险源、隐患、事故有极为相似的认知解读属性和概念映射关系,安全生产灰犀牛由主观建构和客观实在风险因素共同影响风险评估与管控维度;安全生产事故情景演化链条是由“系统能量—诱发因素—承灾性能”情景构成要素和“累积—波动—突变”风险演化阶段组成;从“认知域—预防域—控制域”防控区域和“防护层—治理层—应急层”层级结构构建安全生产三道防线,为安全生产管理研究提供灰犀牛理论和风险隐喻方法指导。

关键词: 灰犀牛理论, 安全生产, 三道防线, 内涵解析, 防控体系

Abstract:

In order to explore the theoretical contribution and application value of gray rhino risk in the field of work safety. The connotation and extension of gray rhino theory were integrated to carry out the multi-perspective integration and thinking paradigm breakthrough of the three lines of defense research on work safety. The analysis of the connotation of work safety of gray rhino and the construction of prevention and control system were carried out according to the three parts of concept integration path analysis, scenario evolution chain deduction and three lines of defense system construction. The results show that gray rhino risk has very similar cognitive interpretation attributes and conceptual mapping relationships with work safety hazard, hidden danger and accident. The work safety of the gray rhino is influenced by both subjective construction and objective real risk factors. The accident scenario evolution chain is composed of the scenario components of "system energy-inducing-disaster-bearing performance" and the risk evolution stages of "accumulation-fluctuation-mutation". Three lines of defense for work safety are constructed from the prevention and control domain of "cognitive domain- prevention domain- control domain" and the hierarchy structure of "protection layer- governance layer- emergency layer". It provides the gray rhino theory and the risk metaphor method guidance for the study of work safety management.

Key words: gray rhino theory, work safety, three lines of defense, scenario evolution, control and prevention system

中图分类号:

X913.4安全系统工程

佟瑞鹏, 王乾, 安宇, 赵晶荣, 常维纯, 苟泽念. 基于灰犀牛理论的安全生产三道防线内涵解析与体系构建[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2025, 35(9): 52-59.

TONG Ruipeng, WANG Qian, AN Yu, ZHAO Jingrong, CHANG Weichun, GOU Zenian. Connotation analysis and system construction of three lines of defense for work safety based on grey rhino theory[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2025, 35(9): 52-59.

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基于灰犀牛理论的安全生产三道防线内涵解析与体系构建

Connotation analysis and system construction of three lines of defense for work safety based on grey rhino theory

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