China Safety Science Journal ›› 2022, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 149-156.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.01.020

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Study on air traffic control risks of aircraft flight test activities based on flight profile

HAN Peng1,2(), WANG Jun3, WANG Qi4, ZHAO Yifei1,2   

  1. 1School of Air Traffic Management, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China
    2Civil Aviation Key Laboratory of Wide-area Surveillance and Security Control Technology, Tianjin 300300, China
    3Air Traffic Control Department, Air Traffic Management Bureau, Civil Aviation Administration of China, Beijing 100020, China
    4Yunnan Branch, Southwest Region Air Traffic Administration of China, Kunming Yunnan 650200, China
  • Received:2021-10-25 Revised:2021-12-10 Online:2022-01-28 Published:2022-07-28

Abstract:

In order to analyze impacts of air traffic control risks on aircraft airworthiness flight test accidents, firstly, corresponding flight profile was drawn according to aircraft flight test subjects. Secondly, based on the flight profile of test activities, support process of the control unit was analyzed, and risk factors on test activities were extracted. Then, evolution process of accidents were analyzed by utilizing fault tree analysis(FTA), and events and logical relationship were mapped to BN. Finally, conditional probability tables were determined on the basis of unsafe event classification results of civil aviation and risk assessment conclusion of flight activities by aircraft manufacturers, and posterior probability was calculated based on variable elimination method to derive main causes of accidents. The results show that when unsafe events or potential accidents occur in flight test activities, management factors are the key causes in ATC support progress. Flight test mission, airspace environment and controllers' work error are also the major risk sources.

Key words: flight profile, aircraft airworthiness, flight test activities, risk assessment, air traffic management, Bayesian network(BN)