Abstract:

To develop reasonable emergency material allocation plans for flood disasters, prospect theory was used to characterize the risk perception levels of decision-makers. The reference points for the risk perception of "disaster relief center-disaster site" two-tier decision-makers were defined. A simulation model was constructed using system dynamics to examine the impact of decision-makers' risk perception on the allocation of emergency supplies for flood disasters. The model's validity was verified with case study of 2023 Zhuozhou flood. The study revealed that satisfaction rate at disaster sites and degree of supply-demand imbalance were influenced by risk perception levels of two-tier decision-makers, with a curve representing these effects. The findings show that the risk perception levels of decision-makers at both disaster sites and relief centers have a marginal increasing effect on the disaster site satisfaction rate and supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, under different levels of material availability, the difference in satisfaction rates at disaster sites becomes smaller as decision-makers' risk perception becomes more pessimistic.

Key words: decision-maker, risk perception, flood disaster, emergency material allocation, system dynamics (SD), prospect theory