Accident risk prediction of intelligent vehicle takeover process at urban roundabout

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.12.2650

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the accident risk in the process of intelligent vehicle takeover at the urban roundabout, a prediction model of intelligent vehicle accident risk at the roundabout was proposed to reduce the accident rate. Based on the urban traffic simulation software simulation of urban mobility (SUMO), the scene of urban roundabout was established, and the accident data of intelligent driving vehicle takeover process was analyzed to reveal the impact mechanism of road area and takeover time(ToT) on the accident risk of intelligent vehicle takeover process. CatBoost was used to model the accident risk, and the sensitivity analysis and Area Under the Curve (AUC) were used as evaluation indicators to compare the prediction performance with Linear Regression and XGBoost models. The results show that the impact of speed on the accident is more than 47%. The accident rate in the entrance lane of the intersection is the highest. The accident rate of the left lane of the entrance is 8.63% higher than that of the right lane on average. The influence of (ToT) on car accident rate at roundabouts is about 8.5%, and the proportion of road curvature and radius factors in the loop area on accident factors is less than 5%. The roundabout segment hardly affects the autonomous vehicle collision during the vehicle takeover process. The prediction accuracy of the CatBoost model is higher than that of linear regression and XGBoost.

Key words: intelligent vehicle, roundabout, takeover time, accident analysis, CatBoost

LIU Qingchao, XU Tianyu, XIONG Xiaoxia, ZHAO Jingya, CAI Yingfeng. Accident risk prediction of intelligent vehicle takeover process at urban roundabout[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2022, 32(12): 150-157.

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变量	释义	变量	释义
R_n	车辆所处道路	D_f	接管车辆前车距离
R_c	子路段道路曲率	T_f	接管车辆前车车头时距
R_r	子路段曲线半径	V_b	接管车辆后车速度
R_l	子路段曲线长度	D_b	接管车辆后车距离
V_t	接管车辆速度	T_b	接管车辆后车车头时距
ToT	ToT	V_f	接管车辆前车速度

区域	40 km/h		45 km/h		50 km/h		55 km/h		60 km/h
区域	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%
路段2	—	—	—	—	1	0.74	—	—	1	0.71
路段6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.70
路段8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0
路段9	—	—	12	20.34	17	28.81	44	74.58	47	79.66
路段10	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
路段11	1	1.43	5	7.14	28	40.00	46	65.71	58	82.86
路段12	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	2.08	5	9.80
路段13	—	—	4	8.89	27	60.00	40	88.89	43	95.56
路段14	—	—	—	—	1	2.17	2	4.35	—	—
路段15	1	1.78	4	7.14	18	32.14	42	75.00	45	80.36

区域	40 km/h		45 km/h		50 km/h		55 km/h		60 km/h
区域	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%
入口1	1	1.78	4	7.14	18	32.14	42	75.00	45	80.36
入口2	—	—	12	20.34	17	28.81	44	74.58	47	79.66
入口3	1	1.43	5	7.14	28	40.00	46	65.71	58	82.86
入口4	—	—	4	8.89	27	60.00	40	88.89	43	95.56

区域	50 km/h		55 km/h		60 km/h
区域	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%
入口1-右	7	33.33	15	71.43	16	76.19
入口1-左	11	31.43	27	77.14	29	82.86
入口2-右	8	33.33	16	66.67	17	70.83
入口2-左	9	25.71	28	80.00	30	85.71
入口3-右	10	34.48	19	65.52	22	75.86
入口3-左	18	43.90	27	65.85	36	87.80
入口4-右	10	58.82	14	82.35	15	88.24
入口4-左	17	60.71	26	92.86	28	100.00

ToT/s	40 km/h		45 km/h		50 km/h		55 km/h		60 km/h
ToT/s	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%	事故数	事故率/%
1.5	0	0	3	15.00	12	63.16	18	90.00	22	95.65
2.0	1	4.17	2	11.11	6	37.5.0	19	73.08	19	95.00
2.5	0	0	3	11.11	9	40.91	15	71.43	25	76.92
3.0	0	0	1	5.88	5	33.33	21	77.78	19	95.00
3.5	1	5.88	1	5.26	8	50.00	28	93.33	28	90.32
4.0	0	0	2	10.53	12	60.00	17	80.95	18	90.00
4.5	0	0	5	20.00	10	38.46	22	71.43	20	83.33
5.0	0	0	3	20.00	14	40.00	18	72.00	20	83.33
5.5	0	0	3	15.00	10	35.71	12	80.00	18	94.74
6.0	0	0	2	18.18	6	46.15	5	71.43	11	100