Risk analysis of rainstorm flood disaster chain and research on disaster mitigation of broken chain under complex network

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2023.12.2006

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve the emergency response and disaster rescue capability of rain and flood disasters, the risk analysis on the rain and flood disaster chain under complex networks was conducted in this study. The secondary derivative disaster events and interrelationships of rain and flood disaster were counted and the network topology structure of the rain and flood disaster chain was constructed. The rain and flood disaster risk assessment model was established, and the node importance degree, the edge vulnerability degree and the risk degree of disaster chain were calculated. The results show that the two chains of "rainstorm-landslide-infrastructure damage" and "rainstorm-landslide-road-bridge destruction-traffic paralysis" are the key points in the prevention and control of rain and flood damage. Controlling important nodes before the occurrence of rain and flood disasters, and cutting off the edge with high risk in time after the occurrence of rain and flood disasters can effectively prevent the occurrence and spread of secondary derivative events of rain and flood disasters.

Key words: rainstorm flood disaster, complex network, disaster chain, risk degree, node importance

LI Lei, MA Mengge, SHE Yaya, WANG Yuqiu, FANG Zihao, WANG Fan. Risk analysis of rainstorm flood disaster chain and research on disaster mitigation of broken chain under complex network[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2023, 33(12): 192-197.

Figures/Tables 6

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节点序号	灾害事件	节点序号	灾害事件
V₁	暴雨	V₁₀	房屋倒塌
V₂	滑坡(崩塌)	V₁₁	人员伤亡
V₃	泥石流	V₁₂	道路桥梁冲毁
V₄	水位上涨	V₁₃	交通瘫痪
V₅	地面积水	V₁₄	人居环境受损
V₆	河流决堤	V₁₅	生活不便
V₇	道路被淹	V₁₆	网络舆情
V₈	基础设施损坏	V₁₇	经济损失
V₉	农作物受损	—	—

序号	节点	点度中心性	中介中心性	紧密度中心性	重要度
1	V₁₆	0.500	0.152	0.640	1.516
2	V₂	0.438	0.110	0.640	1.346
3	V₃	0.438	0.110	0.640	1.346
4	V₈	0.438	0.108	0.640	1.341
5	V₁₂	0.438	0.064	0.615	1.208
6	V₉	0.375	0.061	0.571	1.093
7	V₁₃	0.375	0.052	0.571	1.070
8	V₁	0.250	0.100	0.516	1.005
9	V₇	0.313	0.030	0.552	0.932
10	V₁₀	0.313	0.027	0.552	0.925
11	V₁₅	0.313	0.022	0.533	0.894
12	V₁₇	0.313	0.022	0.533	0.894
13	V₆	0.188	0.055	0.516	0.829
14	V₅	0.188	0.027	0.471	0.716
15	V₁₁	0.188	0.006	0.485	0.677
16	V₁₄	0.188	0.001	0.471	0.652
17	V₄	0.125	0.011	0.410	0.552

序号	灾害边	平均路径长度	脆弱度	致灾率	风险度	序号	灾害边	平均路径长度	脆弱度	致灾率	风险度
1	V₁-V₂	1.88	17.93	0.61	76.20	11	V₃-V₈	1.87	7.47	0.54	26.01
2	V₁-V₃	1.88	1.99	0.54	58.62	12	V₃-V₉	1.85	1.85	0.64	24.11
3	V₁-V₄	1.91	6.50	0.86	58.62	13	V₃-V₁₀	1.86	1.86	0.46	17.27
4	V₁-V₅	1.92	6.52	0.82	49.01	14	V₃-V₁₁	1.86	1.86	0.43	16.76
5	V₂-V₈	1.87	13.07	0.54	42.86	15	V₃-V₁₂	1.87	3.74	0.39	16.07
6	V₂-V₉	1.85	3.71	0.68	33.66	16	V₃-V₁₄	1.85	1.85	0.61	16.07
7	V₂-V₁₀	1.86	3.72	0.50	30.00	17	V₄-V₆	1.91	14.22	0.39	15.40
8	V₂-V₁₁	1.86	3.72	0.50	28.59	18	V₅-V₇	1.87	9.92	0.68	15.28
9	V₂-V₁₂	1.87	5.60	0.39	28.01	19	V₅-V₁₃	1.88	7.50	0.54	15.11
10	V₂-V₁₄	1.85	3.71	0.64	27.90	20	V₆-V₈	1.90	11.43	0.54	12.35

节点编号	出度	入度	度	节点编号	出度	入度	度
V₁	4	0	4	V₁₀	3	2	5
V₂	6	1	7	V₁₁	1	2	3
V₃	6	1	7	V₁₂	4	3	7
V₄	1	1	2	V₁₃	3	3	6
V₅	2	1	3	V₁₄	0	3	3
V₆	2	1	3	V₁₅	0	5	5
V₇	4	1	5	V₁₆	0	8	8
V₈	3	4	7	V₁₇	0	5	5
V₉	4	2	6

灾害链	风险度
1-2-8-15	183.83
1-2-8-17	183.83
1-2-8-16	153.80
1-2-12-13-15	138.87
1-2-12-13-17	136.88
1-2-12-13-16	132.29
1-2-12-17	106.88
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