Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to assist tunnel fire risk management and decision-making, the definition and principles of social risk acceptance criteria for road tunnel fire were established. Based on a statistical analysis of tunnel fire fatalities in China from 2000 to 2020 and a survey of public perceptions of tunnel fire risk, social risk acceptance criteria of tunnel fires in China was developed by the F/N curve method, and the acceptance critical limits for accident frequency and consequences were defined. The results show that the public has a tolerable attitude towards the current situation of tunnel fire accident risk. The maximum acceptable frequency of tunnel fire fatalities in China is set at 10^-5/(km·a), and the maximum tolerable frequency is set at 10^-4/(km·a).

Key words: tunnel fire, social risk criteria, acceptance criteria, risk perception, F/N curve

CLC Number:

X915.2安全社会学

WANG Qirui, JIANG Xuepeng, XUE Guangqiao, QIAN Xinbo. Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(4): 121-127.

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时间段	死亡频率/ (km·a)^-1	死亡事故频率/ (km·a)^-1
2000—2005年	0.002 26	1.8×10^-4
2006—2010年	0.001 62	1.8×10^-4
2011—2015年	0.001 00	1.0×10^-4
2016—2020年	0.000 36	6.0×10^-5

问卷维度	题目数	信度检验结果
隧道火灾事故频率认知调查	5	0.732
隧道火灾事故后果认知调查	3	0.748
隧道火灾风险可接受程度测量	4	0.852

因子	效度检验结果
KMO	0.788
Bartlett球形值	1 351.175
p	0.00

隧道火灾死亡事故总体可接受频率		重大及以上隧道火灾事故可接受频率		特别重大隧道火灾事故可接受频率
频率/a^-1	占比/%	频率/a^-1	占比/%	频率/a^-1	占比/%
2	6.80	[0.33,1]	8.25	[0.1,0.2]	11.17
1	23.79	[0.2,0.33)	16.99	[0.05,0.1)	14.08
[0.33,1)	21.36	[0.1,0.2)	19.42	[0.02,0.05)	25.73
[0.2,0.33)	18.93	[0.05,0.1)	25.73	[0.01,0.02)	23.79
<0.2	29.13	<0.05	29.61	<0.01	25.24