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Table of Content

    28 April 2024, Volume 34 Issue 4
    Safety social science and safety management
    A review of flight control system fault research based on QAR data
    WANG Yantao, GAO Yi, SHI Tongyu
    2024, 34(4):  1-9.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1254
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    To systematically review the research progress and current status of fault analysis in civil aircraft flight control systems, both domestically and internationally, this review study was carried out. The study focused on identifying typical fault types of flight control systems through analysing QAR data. Firstly, the process of QAR data preprocessing and feature extraction was summarized. Secondly, based on the performance metrics achievable by fault analysis, four stages of fault research were proposed, including fault monitoring, fault identification, fault diagnosis, and fault prediction. Finally, by combining the progress and depth of domestic and international research, typical fault types of flight control systems were identified, including rudder hydraulic leakage, inconsistent elevator indications, and flap actuation delays. Commonly used QAR data items for modeling include aircraft primary control surface positions, flight attitudes, aircraft performance, left and right flap angles, and flap positions. Calculation methods encompass physical models, multivariate statistics, logical reasoning, and machine learning. The results show that through a systematic analysis of the latest research progress in subsystems such as rudder, elevator, and flaps, it is found that certain achievements have been made in fault types, parameter selection, and the improvement of calculation methods. However, the fault research stage is primarily focused on fault diagnosis or non-real-time prediction. Further emphasis is required on addressing safety assurance and practical maintenance needs to achieve real-time fault prediction technology.

    Risk zoo (V): practice and reflection on theory of risk metaphors based on cultural identity
    TONG Ruipeng, HU Xiangyang, YIN Xuechen, YANG Angbin
    2024, 34(4):  10-16.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.2055
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    In order to strengthen the understanding of the contribution of the risk zoo to risk culture construction and explore its practical and applied value, the mechanism and path of cultural identity of the risk zoo were explored based on cultural identity theory. As an important carrier of risk culture construction, the cultural identity path of risk zoo also follows the framework of risk culture identity system. The cultural identity system of the risk zoo was presented from two aspects: individual and group. The results show that individual identity develops progressively along the path of value identity→emotional identity→behavioral identity, and group identity develops progressively along the path of risk concept→risk communication→risk participation. Cultural identity is the basis for the practical application of the risk zoo, and the practical application framework of the risk zoo should be carried out in accordance with the cultural identity system. It can actively guide individuals to build a healthy risk awareness and lead groups to create a good risk culture through the creation of a science popularization platform that combines online and offline, and places equal emphasis on professionalism and communication.

    Effect of "rush game" on unsafe driving of take-away riders: a perspective based on evaluation of stress perception
    NIU Lixia, HAN Xixiu, ZHAO Rui
    2024, 34(4):  17-25.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0614
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    In order to effectively prevent the unsafe driving behavior of take-away riders and reduce the traffic accidents caused by take-away riders, based on the work mechanism of take-away platforms' "rush game", combined with the theory of stress perception evaluation, a theoretical model characterising the effects of time pressure and competitive atmosphere perception on unsafe driving behavior of take-away riders was constructed from the perspective of safety attitude and exemplary norms. A reliable questionnaire was designed through literature review, and 360 valid samples were collected from take-away riders all over the country. The data reliability was analyzed by SPSS 27.0 and AMOS 24.0 data analysis software, and the theoretical model was verified by hierarchical regression analysis using Process 4.0. The results show that time pressure and competitive atmosphere perception have significant positive effects on unsafe driving behavior. Safety attitude can significantly negatively affect the unsafe driving behavior of take-away riders. Safety attitude can mediate the relationship between time pressure and unsafe driving behavior, and also mediate the relationship between competitive atmosphere perception and unsafe driving behavior. Exemplary norms can positively regulate the relationship between safety attitude and unsafe driving behavior.

    Research on knowledge production of risk communication for public health emergencies in China
    TAN Shuang, CHAI Zitong
    2024, 34(4):  26-32.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0395
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    To deeply explore the knowledge production status and development logic in the field of risk communication for public health emergencies in China, this study systematically sorts out 234 core literatures from CNKI using bibliometrics and content analysis. First, the knowledge production trend is summarized through quantitative statistics; second, the Citespace software is used to construct a visual knowledge map of the main subjects and carriers of knowledge production and core issues, analyzing the current situation of knowledge production; finally, the content logic and process logic of knowledge production are sorted out through content analysis of the literature. The results show that the current knowledge production of risk communication for public health emergencies in China is driven by both "push" and "pull" factors. There is an obvious trend of interdisciplinary crossover, the content system of knowledge production is taking shape; and the methods of knowledge production are characterized by diversity.

    Study on societal risk acceptance criteria of typical ships in Yangtze River
    DONG Haibo, WANG Xizhao, GU Xuekang, BU Shuxia, ZENG Ke
    2024, 34(4):  33-41.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0389
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    In order to mitigate the catastrophic consequences resulting from various accidents, F-N curve method was employed to conduct research on societal risk acceptance criteria for typical ships in the Yangtze River. Combined with the actual data of the bulk carriers on Yangtze River, the sensitivity analysis of the key parameters that determine the region boundary of ALARP was carried out, including EV, the risk aversion factor and the upper limit of the fatalities in one accident. For the bulk carriers, the general societal risk acceptance criterion was established. Considering the society's risk aversion to a large number of deaths, an improved acceptance criterion was proposed. Furthermore, the historical accident data of bulk carriers in the Yangtze River from 2010 to 2019 were collected. Through data analysis and frequency calculation, the societal risk of the bulk carriers caused by collision, grounding, contact, stranding, sinking, fire/explosion and wind disaster were determined, and risk assessment was conducted using the acceptance criteria established in this paper. It is shown that the risk aversion factor is the most crucial parameter to determine whether the criterion is strict enough. The number of fatalities corresponding to the horizontal intercept of the upper boundary line of ALARP region for the improved criterion is 9.55% of that of the general criterion, while considering the horizontal intercept of the lower boundary line of ALARP region, the percentage is 44.44%, which means that the improved criterion is more stringent and exhibits stronger aversion to a larger number of deaths.

    Research on causes of dispatcher fatigue based on AWAHP
    CHEN Liang, ZHENG Wei
    2024, 34(4):  42-49.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0969
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    In order to further ensure the safety of railway operation, this article conducted a survey and analysis on the fatigue factors of railway train dispatchers. Firstly, according to the characteristics of the work content of railway train dispatchers, a fatigue causation evaluation index system for railway train dispatchers was established based on extensive literature review, consultation with railway train dispatching experts and human factors engineering experts. The index system consists of four first-level indicators: work content, job rotation arrangement, personnel quality, and external factors, as well as 18 second-level indicators. Secondly,AWAHP method was used to calculate the weight of different experts' own evaluation were calculated and the final weights of the final indicators were obtained. Finally, the dispatch center of a certain railway bureau was taken as an example for a comprehensive evaluation of the impact weights of dispatcher fatigue-cause factors based on AWAHP. The results show that emergency response, operation time period, continuous operation time, railway busy degree, and work complexity are the significant factors affecting dispatcher fatigue. The key factors of railway train dispatcher fatigue were effectively identified, and analysis and countermeasures were proposed for the key factors.

    Safety engineering technology
    Accident causal analysis of object strike in hydropower project construction based on text mining
    ZHENG Xiazhong, LIU Yicheng, SHAO Bo, WANG Shuo, KE Shan'gang
    2024, 34(4):  50-57.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1452
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    To clarify the accident causes and their association rules of strike accidents in hydropower project construction, specific accident prevention strategies were proposed to curb accidents at source. Based the selected object strike accidents during hydropower construction process, 14 accident causal parameters were summarized using text mining from four perspectives including worker, machine, environment and management. Moreover, an importance analysis model was proposed by coupling association rules and the DEMATEL approach to analyze the interrelated relationship between causes and determine major accident causes. The results showed that the accident causes of object strikes in hydropower projects were closely related to each other, among which inadequate safety supervision and inspection, illegal operations, insufficient safety protection, and weak safety awareness directly affected the accident's occurrence. Furthermore, the deeper causing factors of accidents were incomplete on-site cleaning, insufficient disclosure of safety technology, and inadequate safety education. Weak safety awareness ranked first in terms of centrality and had the greatest influence on the accident causation system, thereby the above causative factors should be emphasized in project construction.

    Fire control mechanism of smoke barrier for long and large hydraulic tunnel group in high altitude areas
    XIA Yong, AN Ruinan, ZHANG Weifeng, ZHANG Chao, HE Kun, LIN Peng
    2024, 34(4):  58-66.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1283
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    To face the challenges of evacuation and rescue of fires in large hydraulic tunnel group and the unclear control mechanism of smoke barrier, numerical simulation was employed to analyze smoke spreading law and fire control mechanism of smoke barrier. The smoke spreading path and the visibility distribution were analyzed. The impact of installing smoke barrier walls on smoke spreading speed, visibility and temperature was studied, and the effectiveness of smoke control measures was evaluated. The results show that the smoke initially spreads along a single two-way direction, and is affected by ventilation airflow when reaching branch tunnel with smoke reversal, retrogression and increased intrusion range. Smoke fills the whole ventilation network within 500 s, the stratification interface between the smoke layer and the lower air layer is unstable, and the height of the smoke layer at the intersection decreases more significantly. The smoke barrier can promote smoke propagation along the diversion tunnel, and the effect decreases with the increase of propagation distance. It has cumulative blocking characteristics along the tunnel direction of the construction branch. The influence of the smoke barrier leads to the temperature decreasing as the diffusion length increases. A smoke storage pool is formed in front of the smoke barrier to enhance the degree of backflow of smoke. Behind it is the smoke deceleration and pressurization area, and the smoke layer rises.

    Evaluation of pilot comfort performance based on FPN method
    HU Shenping, LIU Lingling, XI Yongtao, ZHANG Xinxin
    2024, 34(4):  67-76.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1206
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    In order to improve the pilot's operational comfort, a combined evaluation method based on FPN and FRA was proposed. First, a multi-factor coupled FPN network topology was established for the uncertainty information of the influencing factors of operational comfort. Then, the optimal combination weights were determined by the game theoretic assignment method. An algorithm combining the inter-layer correlation to determine the critical importance, analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy reasoning was proposed to establish a FRA based on subjective and objective weights. The confidence and state matrices were solved by iterative solution of the library. Finally, combined with the scenario data of ship pilotage in Shanghai harbor, the operational comfort of pilots was evaluated through the application of FRA based on FPN. The results show that the environment and pilotage equipment are the key factors affecting the comfort of their operation. The comfort level of pilotage operation in winter and summer corresponds to "less comfortable", and "more comfortable" in May. The proposed method fully reflects the coupled nature of the factors influencing the comfort of the system.

    Effect of variation of cross-section dimensions on noise propagation in coal mine excavation roadway
    YANG Ming, JIA Gaini, QUAN Xingyuan, ZHANG Xuebo, LIU Maomao
    2024, 34(4):  77-86.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1292
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    In order to study the influence of section size change on noise propagation in long space of coal mine roadway, the simulation method was used to study the noise propagation in the roadway, and to analyze the influence of the changes of section area size, section shape and section area mutation rate on the noise propagation in the roadway of coal mine roadway. The results showed that: the section area size, section shape and section area mutation rate in coal mine tunneling would affect the propagation of noise in the tunnel, when the noise source power and frequency were the same, the attenuation of the sound pressure level increased with the increase of the section area of the roadway. For a given section area (18 m2), when the section shape was different, the attenuation of the sound pressure level was also different, and there would be an obvious acoustic focusing effect when the section shape was arch-shaped. When the cross-section area changed abruptly, the distribution of sound pressure level in the roadway would change, in which the change of cross-section area from large to small was not conducive to noise attenuation, and the change of cross-section area from small to large only affected the sound field after the abrupt change, and the overall sound pressure level in the roadway is not significant. The field test and numerical simulation results of noise attenuation in the tunnel were basically consistent, which verified the reliability of the model and simulation results.

    Dynamic assessment model for seismic resilience of oil depot
    CHEN Chao, TAN Xinxin, WANG Di, LI Changjun
    2024, 34(4):  87-92.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1002
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    To address the safety management issues of oil depots in case of earthquakes, firstly, seismic resilience is defined as the ability of oil depots to maintain their storage functions in terms of resisting earthquake damage, mitigating secondary disasters, adapting to environments after earthquakes, and quickly recovering after earthquakes. Moreover, an assessment model for the seismic resilience of Oil depot is proposed by quantifying the four types of abilities. Secondly, a quantitative assessment of the seismic resilience of the oil depot is realized through a dynamic Monte Carlo method, considering the uncertainty of the resistance and mitigation stages, thereby obtaining the seismic resilience value. Finally, the performance of the proposed model is validated against the oil depot in an earthquake area. The results indicate that the uncertainty of the resilience ability of the oil depot results in a significant fluctuation in resilience values, and the domino effect has a significant influence on the oil depot's resilience and cannot be ignored. Moreover, the farther the earthquake source distance and the lower the fault slip rate lead to higher seismic resilience. The seismic resilience can be improved by staying away from active faults, predicting earthquake hazards, and reducing emergency response time.

    Early prediction and warning of offshore drilling overflow based on data model collaboration
    YANG Xiangqian, ZHANG Pingru, WU Shengnan, ZHANG Laibin, LI Zhong, FENG Huanzhi
    2024, 34(4):  93-100.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1390
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    An early prediction and warning method of offshore drilling overflow based on data model collaboration was proposed to prevent blowout accidents during offshore drilling. Firstly, an overflow risk prediction model based on PSO-LSSVM was established to predict the trend of drilling monitoring parameters in the future, and analyze the correlation between overflow events and characterization parameters. Then, a single-parameter overflow probability estimation prediction model was proposed based on the Naive Bayesian method, and the probabilities of multiple drilling parameters were integrated through the optimized D-S method to realize a hierarchical early warning of overflow events. The results indicated that the overflow characterization parameters simulated by the PSO-LSSVM model had low prediction errors. The overflow event probability represented by a single drilling parameter showed discrepancies due to different sensitivities. The fused early warning model can address the issues of inconsistent early warning times of single parameters and eliminate the possibility of false alarms.

    Research on severity of mountain highway accidents based on random parameter logit model
    ZHANG Wei, GAO Hanhao, TANG Xinqi, XU Kunmiao
    2024, 34(4):  101-110.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0448
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    In order to investigate the influence of flat curve, longitudinal curve, and flat-long combination of line shapes on the severity of traffic accidents on mountain highways, firstly, the line shape data of a 263 km section of a mountain highway and the 1 870 accidents occurring on the section in five years were statistically analyzed and classified. Then, according to the structural form of the research data, the stochastic parametric logit model was established, and then the model was utilized to study the effect of the combination of line shapes on the severity of accidents. The results show that: the factors of ratio of curve (ROC), weighted curvature (CW), and delta slope (ΔS2) are associated with an increase in property damage-only accidents, whereas the combination of slope lengths (CSL) is associated with a decrease in property damage-only accidents; the weighted curvature (CW=0.6-0.7) and continuous uphill slope are associated with an increase in accidents with minor injuries, and the factors of weighted curvature (CW=0.3-0.4), delta slope (ΔS1), and ratio of curve (ROC) were associated with a decrease in accidents with minor injuries; the variation rate of curvature (VRC), contiguous radius of front and behind (CRF, CRB), and combination of slope and radius (CSR) were associated with an increase in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities, and the ratio of curve (ROC) was associated with a decrease in accidents with serious injuries or fatalities; and the combination of linear shapes had a significant effect on the severity of accidents.

    Robustness evaluation for high-speed railway network with spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics
    LI Zhuo, HE Ruichun, LI Wenxia
    2024, 34(4):  111-120.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0648
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    In order to effectively evaluate the transportation service performance of HSRN and ensure the reliability of HSRN in the face of emergencies, based on complex network theory, a robustness evaluation method considering temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics was proposed. The dynamic changes of HSRSN was considered, and time information was incorporated into the modeling of HSRSN. Based on empirical operation data of high-speed railways in China, the necessity of considering spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics to evaluate network performance was verified, and the distribution characteristics of HSRN robustness in China were explored from the spatiotemporal dimension. The experimental results show that the train flow passing through different stations is different, and the network robustness exhibits a significant spatial distribution difference. Moreover, the disturbance scenarios are different, and the contribution of train frequency and spatial position of stations to the importance of stations is also different. In addition, the occurrence time and duration of disturbances are two key time factors that affect network robustness. Their different combinations result in significant time distribution differences in network robustness. The impact of disturbances on network performance varies at different time periods, resulting in obvious fluctuations in station importance ranking at different time periods.

    Study on social risk acceptance criteria of road tunnel fire in China
    WANG Qirui, JIANG Xuepeng, XUE Guangqiao, QIAN Xinbo
    2024, 34(4):  121-127.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0687
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    In order to assist tunnel fire risk management and decision-making, the definition and principles of social risk acceptance criteria for road tunnel fire were established. Based on a statistical analysis of tunnel fire fatalities in China from 2000 to 2020 and a survey of public perceptions of tunnel fire risk, social risk acceptance criteria of tunnel fires in China was developed by the F/N curve method, and the acceptance critical limits for accident frequency and consequences were defined. The results show that the public has a tolerable attitude towards the current situation of tunnel fire accident risk. The maximum acceptable frequency of tunnel fire fatalities in China is set at 10-5/(km·a), and the maximum tolerable frequency is set at 10-4/(km·a).

    Apriori algorithm-based statistical analysis of hydrogen accidents
    YU Xirui, HE Xu, KONG Depeng
    2024, 34(4):  128-134.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0839
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    To explore the correlation between different characteristic factors of hydrogen accidents, 827 safety accidents involving hydrogen systems were used as the data set to statistically analyze the characteristic factors such as accident date, application stage, ignition source, accident causes and consequences. First, a network of association rules for accident causation was constructed to discuss accident causation relevance. Then, the causes and consequences of the accident were analyzed interactively. Finally, Apriori algorithm-based association rule mining was performed on six types of characteristic factors of hydrogen accidents. The results show that six accident causation combinations, such as equipment failure and design error, operational error and accidental reaction, are the most highly correlated among hydrogen safety accidents. Unignited hydrogen release is strongly associated with eight factors, like pressure relief devices and ventilation systems. Hydrogen fires are strongly associated with nine factors, like bolts and spontaneous combustion. And hydrogen explosions are strongly associated with five factors, like hydrogen production, electrical sparks, and compressors.

    Slope stability prediction and application based on MISSA-SVM model
    WANG Tuanhui, WANG Chao, WU Shunchuan, WANG Qiwei, XU Jianhui
    2024, 34(4):  135-144.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1275
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    In order to further improve the prediction accuracy of slope stability, a slope stability prediction model based on MISSA optimized SVM was proposed. Six representative indexes, including bulk density (γ), cohesion (c), internal friction angle (Ф), slope angle (φf), slope height (H) and pore pressure ratio (ru) were selected as the prediction indexes of the model. In response to the problems of slow convergence speed, low accuracy, and susceptibility to local optima in the sparrow optimization algorithm (SSA), strategies such as one-dimensional composite chaotic mapping, SCA, Levy flight mechanism, and dynamic adjustment of step size factor are introduced for optimization and improvement. A slope stability prediction model based on MISSA-SVM was constructed. The MISSA-SVM model was applied to 9 groups of slope engineering examples, such as the Daxi landslide, for verification. The results show that the accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, mean square error (MSE) and area under the curve (AUC) of the MISSA-SVM model reach 96.29%, 92.3%, 100%, 0.96, 0.016 and 0.967, respectively, which are better than the SSA-optimized SVM model and BP model, and the prediction results are completely consistent with the actual slope conditions, indicating that the MISSA-SVM model has strong generalization ability.

    Intelligent monitoring and prediction of deformation of uranium tailings dam based on SBAS-InSAR and BPNN
    ZHOU Yi, PENG Guowen, HUANG Zhao, YANG Pengfei, LIU Dandan, CHEN Xiaoli
    2024, 34(4):  145-152.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1693
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    To improve the efficiency of monitoring work in the retirement treatment of uranium tailings ponds, an intelligent monitoring and prediction model of deformation of uranium tailings ponds was proposed based on SBAS-InSAR technology and BPNN. Firstly, SBAS-InSAR technology was used to obtain the cumulative deformation and annual deformation rate of the uranium tailings pond over the past two years. The accuracy of InSAR monitoring values was verified using seven Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) monitoring stations on the first dam. Then, the cumulative settlement of four dam sections, including Leigongtang dam, nanpo cross dam, Battle dam and Songlin dam, was selected and analyzed in conjunction with rainfall. Finally, the cumulative settlement data of 100 settlement points of the uranium tailings dam were randomly extracted to predict the deformation of the uranium tailings dam. The results show that from December 2020 to December 2022, the deformation rate of uranium tailings dam is between -60.06-34.94 mm/a. The overall settlement of the uranium tailings dam is in a sinking state, with a maximum cumulative settlement of -46.67 mm. The average absolute error between the predicted values of BPNN and the actual monitoring values is 0.586 mm, and the mean square error is 0.624 mm.

    Public safety
    Research on influencing factors of subway station fire evacuation based on 24Model-D-ISM
    SUN Shimei, ZHANG Jiayan
    2024, 34(4):  153-159.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0549
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    In order to prevent fire accidents in subway stations and deeply understand the internal relations and hierarchical structure among the influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations, 63 fire evacuation accidents in subway stations were analyzed based on the sixth edition of 24Model, and the interaction among various factors was fully considered, and 19 key factors affecting fire evacuation in subway stations were extracted to establish an index system of influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations. C-OWA was used to improve DEMATEL to determine the important influencing factors of fire evacuation in subway stations. On this basis, ISM was used to analyze the hierarchical structure and interaction path of various factors, and a multi-level hierarchical structure model of the influencing factors of subway station fire evacuation was constructed. Research results show that evacuation guidance, panic herd behavior and crowded people are the key influencing factors for the evacuation of people in subway station fires. The evacuation of fire personnel in the subway station is influenced by surface factors, intermediate factors and deep factors. Among them, evacuation education and training, facilities maintenance and inspection, evacuation plan and other factors are the root causes. Paying attention to the improvement of root causes was conducive to preventing and controlling accidents in essence.

    Urban rail transit line operation safety evaluation based on combined weighting-extension cloud method
    PAN Hanchuan, LIU Danyang, ZHANG Yurui, LIU Zhigang, SHANG Bin
    2024, 34(4):  160-166.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.2513
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    In order to solve the problems of lack of timeliness in the evaluation indicators of urban rail transit operation safety and some safety evaluation models ignoring the fuzzy boundaries of evaluation levels, a new evaluation index system for the operation safety of urban rail transit lines was reconstructed, including new indicators such as the implementation of infectious disease prevention and control measures by employees, the degree of cooperation between relevant units, and the completeness of prevention and control equipment. Secondly, the combination weighting of various indicators was carried out using the Best Worst Method (BWM) based on the minimization of dispersion and the anti-entropy weighting method. Then, the extension cloud was applied to determine the safety evaluation level of urban rail transit line operation. Finally, take Shanghai Metro Line 17 as an example for analysis. The results indicate that the comprehensive cloud correlation degrees of various indicators for the operational safety assessment of Shanghai Metro Line 17 are below 0.5, with a confidence level exceeding 0.99, among which the confidence levels for personnel factors, line factors, and management factors are all 1. This suggests that the employed indicator system and evaluation model are closely aligned with the current operational conditions of urban rail transit, accurately reflecting the safety levels of urban rail transit operations. Further analysis of the sensitivity of indicator values reveals that the reliability of station operational equipment has the most significant impact on the actual operational safety of the line. In practical operations, the degree of passenger cooperation in preventing and controlling infectious diseases at stations has the greatest potential to improve the indicator. It can help subway companies establish a more scientific and effective safety evaluation system to ensure the safety of daily line operations.

    Technology and engineering of disaster prevention and mitigation
    Types and evaluation methods of secondary disasters in coal mines induced by earthquake
    QI Qingjie, LIU Yingjie, SUN Zuo, TONG Ruipeng
    2024, 34(4):  167-174.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1362
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    In order to solve the problem of secondary disaster risk in coal mines affected by earthquake disasters, firstly, typical cases have been investigated and analyzed, and the types and damage characteristics of secondary disasters in coal mines have been summarized. Based on the comprehensive elements of "man-machine-environment-management", a three-level indicator system for earthquake-induced secondary disaster risk assessment in coal mines has been constructed. Then, the evaluation method of risk level and importance of hidden danger has been proposed. Finally, a coal mine in a city in Hebei Province was used as an example for practical application. The results show that the types of secondary disasters induced by earthquakes in coal mines can be divided into 6 categories according to the disaster-bearing body. The assessment of the possibility of earthquake-induced coal mine secondary disasters mainly considers six aspects: the earthquake disaster level in the area where the coal mine is located, the risk of coal mine secondary disasters, the hazard of coal seam gas occurrence, the hazard of hydrogeological conditions in the mine, the level of fortification of the disaster-bearing body, and the ability to prevent and mitigate disasters. The assessment of the severity of the consequences mainly considers two aspects: the number of casualties and economic losses that may be caused by disasters. The weak links in seismic fortification of coal mines in this city are ventilation system, shaft support system, and drainage system, which should be targeted to improve seismic fortification level.

    Influence of snowfall weather on resilience recovery of airport infrastructure system
    HUANG Xin, XU Ping, WU Kun
    2024, 34(4):  175-182.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1526
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    To quantitatively evaluate the influence of snowfall on the resilience of airport infrastructure system, the airport infrastructure system was divided into four first-level indicators, including physical system, functional system, economic system and organizational system. The damage intensity coefficient of snowfall weather to the second-level indicators was put forward, and a quantitative analysis model of airport infrastructure system resilience was established. The variation of resilience level of airport infrastructure system was simulated by the Monte Carlo Method under four different levels of snowfall. The simulation result show that the functional damage degree and recovery time of the airport infrastructure system are positively correlated with snowfall intensity. The system recovery time is 13, 14, 16 and 23 respectively under the conditions of light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow and blizzard. The resilience of the airport infrastructure system under the condition of blizzard is 9.65%, 17.01% and 20.27% lower than that under the conditions of heavy, medium and light snow, respectively. The recovery speed of the airport infrastructure system increases from 0.053%/h to 0.061%/h, and the recovery time reduces from 12 h to 9 h when the failure strength coefficient reduces by 20%.

    Emergency technology and management
    Evaluation of comprehensive emergency response capability for port ship oil spill with cloud gravity center evaluation method
    CHEN Weijiong, SU Ziwei, QIN Tingrong, HAN Weijia, WANG Kan, KANG Yutao
    2024, 34(4):  183-190.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1765
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    To address the limitations of evaluating the emergency response capability of port ships for oil spills in a single stage and reasonably allocate resources, the cloud gravity center evaluation method was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive emergency response capability of port ships for oil spill. Facing the entire process of emergency preparedness, early warning, response and recovery, and referring to the theory of "man-machine-environment-management" system and international and domestic regulations, a comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation index system was established. To address the issue that the traditional evaluation indicators were not fuzzy and random, a weighted deviation degree was used to determine the transformation relationship between qualitative indicators and quantitative values. AHP was used to optimize evaluation opinions and compensate for accuracy deficiencies caused by insufficient evaluation samples. Finally, taking Shanghai Port as an example, an empirical study was conducted on the comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation of ship oil spills. The results show that the cloud gravity center evaluation method can reasonably evaluate the comprehensive emergency response capability of port ships for oil spills. This method provides a theoretical basis for improving and perfecting emergency response capability, and provides a new approach for the comprehensive emergency response capability evaluation of port ships for oil spills.

    Location selection model of emergency shelter considering risk of flood disaster in county
    SONG Yinghua, HAN Baoshuai, GUO Chen
    2024, 34(4):  191-198.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.6850
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    In order to improve the service level of emergency refuge in the process of disaster management, from the perspective of flood disaster, four indexes were selected: risk of disaster causing factor, sensitivity of disaster-bearing environment, vulnerability of carrier and ability of disaster prevention and reduction. The spatial distribution of flood risk was identified through the AHP-entropy weight method model. Its risk value was introduced as a weight to minimize uncovered risk. Combined with minimizing the weighted evacuation distance and minimizing the accessibility difference, a multi-target shelter location selection model was constructed from the perspective of fairness, efficiency and balance. The improved NSGA-II algorithm was used to solve the model, and the existing shelter layout in Xianyou County, Putian City was used as an example for model verification. The results show that compared with the existing shelter layout, the total evacuation distance, uncovered risk value and accessibility difference coefficient in the optimized layout scheme are reduced by 35.90%, 61.47% and 33.62% respectively.

    Evaluation model of pilot emergency response capability
    WANG Yonggang, MA Wenting
    2024, 34(4):  199-206.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0830
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    In order to improve pilots' emergency response capability in emergency situations and reduce civil aviation safety accidents, the pilot task process was analyzed based on the decision-making model and stress theory model. The index system of pilot emergency response capability was established from the aspects of pilot operation safety capability and pilot reserve safety capability. FAHP was used to establish the index system including safety operation capability B1 and reserve safety capability B2, and the membership degree of the second-level indexes was determined by combing the expert opinions. Then, the core indicators of pilot emergency response capability were obtained. The comprehensive evaluation of pilot emergency response capability by experts in the field of civil aviation safety was integrated through the ER algorithm. 2 crew pilots of an airline were selected for empirical analysis. The results of the study show that the proposed model can reduce the impact of uncertainty on evaluation results, thus significantly improving the reliability of the evaluation results.

    Geohazard emergency response partnerships from a social network perspective
    BAI Pengfei, TAN Xiaohu, HOU ruifang
    2024, 34(4):  207-216.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1081
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    To explore the multi-departmental emergency response cooperation relationship of geological disasters in China, geological disaster emergency management plans at the provincial, municipal, and county levels were obtained from a geological disaster-prone province. Focusing on functional departments involved in geological disaster emergency response, a provincial-municipal-county level geological disaster emergency cooperation network model was proposed based on the social network analysis method. The theme block matrix was calculated by the centrality and iterative correlation convergence method (CONCOR) iterating correlation matrix to divide the structural hierarchy of sub-groups among functional departments. The density matrix was used to investigate the relationship patterns among subgroups and analyze the centrality, cohesiveness, and interaction of emergency departments at all levels in the geological disaster emergency cooperation network. The results showed that emergency departments had different interdependencies and small groups in geological disaster emergency cooperation, and the cooperation pattern had issues such as uneven coordination and blocked information resources. Generally, the relationship between provincial and municipal emergency cooperation was relatively close, but the overall structure and relationship pattern of the county-level emergency cooperation network were relatively isolated with a low level of connection between some organizational structures. Therefore, it is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability among various functional departments and improve the organizational structure construction of county-level government in emergency management.

    Improved social force model considering information transmission mechanism
    LI Kun, DING Jingxuan, LI Jiaojiao
    2024, 34(4):  217-225.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1534
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    In order to investigate the pedestrian evacuation selection strategy in a multi-exit room with unknown exit opening status and to assess the effect of information transfer on movement status and evacuation efficiency during evacuation, an exit-finding SFM based on the information transfer mechanism was proposed. Firstly, A competition mechanism has been introduced into the social force model to improve the simulation's accuracy in reflecting real-life evacuation scenarios. The study then examined the evacuation process guided by rational and irrational strategies to investigate the impact of the herd effect triggered by information change on the overall evacuation. Finally, this paper introduces the information transfer mechanism to investigate the optimization effect of information exchange and cooperation on the escape path. The results indicate that the rational strategy is more robust for individual pedestrians in an emergency escape situation. However, from the perspective of group behavior, an optimal distribution of group strategies exists. Specifically, when approximately 25% of pedestrians choose the rational strategy, and the remaining 75% choose the irrational strategy, the evacuation effect of the whole group can reach its optimal effect. The introduction of the information transfer mechanism enables escaping pedestrians to effectively obtain critical escape information from the surrounding crowd, thus significantly improving evacuation efficiency. The facilitating effect of this mechanism is particularly evident in scenarios with fewer available exits.

    Evaluation of emergency logistics facility location plan based on IT2F-BWM-MABAC method
    ZHOU Qingchao, YE Chunming, GENG Xiuli
    2024, 34(4):  226-231.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.0310
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    This paper proposed an evaluation method for emergency logistics facility site selection schemes in uncertain environments based on IT2F-BWM-MABAC. Firstly, in response to the fuzzy uncertainty problem of evaluation information in the evaluation process of emergency logistics facility site selection schemes, an IT2F set was used for processing, and the site selection schemes were ranked in MABAC. In order to address the issue of obtaining attribute weights from external sources in traditional MABAC, BWM based on IT2F was adopted to determine the weights of attributes. Finally, the method proposed in this article was applied to the evaluation of emergency logistics facility location schemes in a certain city, and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed location method were verified. The results show that the proposed method can solve the problem of emergency logistics facility location selection in uncertain environments while ensuring the quality of scheme evaluation.

    Occupational health
    Risk assessment of firefighter training injury based on game theory combinatorial weighting and cloud model
    CHEN Na, HU Yitong, YUAN Yingfeng, QIN Xiangnan, LIU Jun
    2024, 34(4):  232-238.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1247
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    In order to reduce the incidence of firefighter training injury, a firefighter training injury risk assessment index system containing 19 indexes was proposed from three aspects: individual factors, environmental factors and organizational management factors. The BON-OWA operator was used to correct the error of analytic hierarchy process(AHP) to obtain the subjective weight, and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC) method was used to determine the objective weight. The game theory combinatorial weighting method was used to integrate the subjective weight and the objective weight to determine the combined weight. The risk assessment model of firefighter training injury was established based on the cloud model theory. The scientificity of the model was verified by the firefighter training in a fire rescue brigade in Henan province. The results show that the combat equipment performance condition index has the greatest impact on the risk level of firefighter training injury; The risk assessment model can determine the risk level of firefighter training injury by data processing. In the case, risk levels of firefighter training injury under five different scenarios are all general risk, which is consistent with the risk level obtained by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.

    Physiological indicators and labor intensity of tunnel construction workers at ultra-high altitude
    ZHAO Shulei, SUN Bing, CHEN Wengan, XU Yinfeng, WANG Junfeng, GUO Chun
    2024, 34(4):  239-246.  doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.04.1748
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    To assess the labor intensity of construction personnel in ultra-high-altitude tunnels, this study employed theoretical analysis to define evaluation indicators and used wearable devices to monitor physiological changes during various construction phases in a specific ultra-high-altitude tunnel. Subsequently, labor intensity and efficiency of different tasks were calculated. Results reveal that the physiological indicators of different tasks are significantly different. Specifically, cardiovascular loads of the workers installing secondary lining steel bars exceed the hygienic limits, and peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) levels of the mechanical operators is lower than the standard values. Labor intensity is classified as Grade V for installing secondary lining steel bars, Grade III for bottom plate construction and arch steel bar binding, and Grade II for installing secondary lining waterproof cloth and for mechanical operations. At an altitude of 4 700 meters, the labor efficiency ranges only from 76% to 88% compared to the plain areas. To match the workload in the plain areas, the labor input must be increased by approximately 13.63% to 31.58% depending on the process.