China Safety Science Journal

Literature review and theoretical framework of crowd resilience to disasters

MENG Bo, FANG Dongping, LI Nan

2018, 28(6): 1-6. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.001

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In order to better deal with diverse disasters,recover from catastrophes quickly and positively,relevant researches on crowd resilience are carried out.Through the disaster related literature review,trauma caused by different disasters is discussed,in the meantime the concept and connotation of individual resilience and crowd resilience are stated.Based on the classic theories of adaptability,risk perception and behavioral motivation,key dimensions of crowd resilience are discussed,and a theoretical framework of crowd resilience is put forward.The results show that the systematic research frame in the field of crowd resilience and related theoretical support are not sufficient.The theoretical framework proposed in this paper contains 4 dimensions,which could be a theoretical basis for further research on crowd resilience.

Research on evidence-based safety management modefrom perspective of big data

SHAN Shunzhang, WU Chao, WANG Conglu, WANG Bing

2018, 28(6): 7-12. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.002

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In order to improve the reliability of EBS decision-making and find the best evidence support for safety decisions,firstly,on the basis of fully researching the related theories of big data and EBS,a concept of safety evidence was put forward.Then the characteristics of safety evidence from the perspective of big data were analyzed.The five-level safety evidence system was summarized.On this basis,an EBS management mode was proposed from the perspective of big data,and specific connotations of the mode and the flow of safety information in the mode were analyzed.Finally,the prospect and advantages of big data applied in EBS were discussed,and 3 suggestions for promotion were given.The results show that the application of big data is the new direction of EBS management development,and that the EBS management mode and five-level safety evidence system proposed are helpful in providing theoretical guidance for its development.

Simulation of factors influencing miners' counterproductive workplace behavior based on system dynamics

LI Naiwen, JI Yonghong, TANG Shuiqing, NIU Lixia

2018, 28(6): 13-18. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.003

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In order to curb the counterproductive workplace behavior of miners,based on the theory of organizational behavior,SD method was used to build a system model of miners' counterproductive behavior factors.Vensim software was used to simulate the dynamic effects of miners' individual,population,organization and management factors on miners' counterproductive behavior,simulating the miners' counterproductive behavior evolution process.The results show that both the job burnout and safety supervision have an obvious promoting effect on the counterproductive workplace behavior,security motivation,exemplary norms,safety specification construction and organizational culture activity have an obvious inhibitory effect on the counterproductive workplace behavior,there are differences between the factors in the effect and the action time,in the interaction of various factors,the evolution of the miners counterproductive behavior presents stage characteristics,safety supervision,model specification and the safety culture construction are an important means of safety management of coal enterprises.

Monitoring driving fatigue of subway driver

JIANG Xingyu, XU Haifeng, WU Shanchun, ZHAO Di

2018, 28(6): 19-24. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.004

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To monitory driving fatigue in automatic train operation mode of metro,a research was carried out on drivers of S metro.The research involved the aspects of subjective monitoring and objective monitoring.For subjective monitoring,the subjective fatigue feelings of metro drivers were investigated and statistically analyzed using fatigue self-assessment scale.For objective monitoring,signals of EEG of the metro drivers in every shift and time were measured using Eegosports 64 channel wireless electroencephalographic system,and the δ wave spectra in EEG of metro drivers were analyzed with EEGLAB in Matlab.The result shows that the average score of driver fatigue is 1.8 points,which indicates that the driving fatigue is obvious,and the late shift fatigue and night shift fatigue are relatively obvious,and the driver's fatigue driving state can be explained from the subjective and objective two aspects.

Research on identification technology and influence mechanism ofinformation processing levels of controllers

LI Jingqiang, LI Kang, WANG Yong, ZHAO Ning

2018, 28(6): 25-30. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.005

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In order to improve the efficiency of identifying information processing levels of controllers,and help to improve the safety level of air traffic control operation,based on the principle of performance test,a test was designed to analyze the information processing level of controllers on the basis of analyzing the information processing process of air traffic control work.According to the SDT,the sensitivity index d and the bias index β were used to identify the information processing levels of controllers.The classification of controllers was analyzed by cluster analysis through examples and the effects of nervous system characteristics on both d and β were analyzed by regression analysis.The results show that d and β are the effective identification index of information processing ability and the effective identification index of information processing bias respectively,that the information processing level of controllers can be classified into three categories,and that the strength and flexibility of controllers can positively predict the information processing ability,and the balance can negatively predict the information processing bias.

Influence of repeated ipsilateral labor load on erector spinal muscle fatigue

WU Xudong, MA Pei, WANG Lejun, ZHANG Shengnian

2018, 28(6): 31-36. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.006

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To prevent the injury to erector muscle caused by repetitive ipsilateral lifting,by using the technology of sEMG,factors influencing left-right erector spinae muscle fatigue were evaluated in this paper.Acting on the experiment requirements,twelve male volunteers completed the repetitive form,right-side lifting work of eight task groups with the workpieces of different weights,frequencies and angles.The relevant sEMG signals were recorded.Then a multiple stepwise regression analysis was made to get the load factosr of erector spinal muscle fatigue.It turned out that with the increase of load factors,the mean power frequency(MPF) is reduced,the average electromyography(AEMG) is increased,and the MVE% is increased,that the maximal values of the erector spinae around the maximal load are (64.85%±11.89%) MVE and (41.24%± 9.77%) MVE respectively,that left and right erector spinae muscles are both obviously fatigued when completing the repetitive lifting work of each task group and there is a difference between them in the degree of fatigue,and that the factors affecting the repetitive ipsilateral move come in the order of weight,angle and frequency.

A study on radiotelephony speech reaction characteristics of controllers under influence of fatigue and stress

ZHANG Xingjian, YUAN Leping, ZHAO Yifei

2018, 28(6): 37-42. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.007

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For the sake of preventing working air traffic controllers from getting themselves into a state of fatigue and (or) a state of stress,the characteristics of radiotelephony speech reaction of controllers in the two states were studied.Simulation control experiments were carried out to collect speech data on controllers in four states,sober,fatigue,stress and fatigue & stress.The reaction characteristics of controller were calculated.The characteristics of average reaction times for each flight,reaction time in overall process and different time segments were analyzed.The change features of the parameters affected by fatigue and stress were studied.The study showed that the average reaction times will increase under the influence of the two state,that fatigued controllers' reaction speed will slow,stability decrease and be worse because of longer working duration,and that under the influence of stress,the stability will decrease and the reaction speed will be slow after a spell.

Driver behavior model and its application in driver fatigue identification

CHU Wenhui, WU Chaozhong, ZHANG Hui, YANG Man , LI Siyao

2018, 28(6): 43-48. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.008

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It is held by the authors that in order to improve the identification precision of fatigue driving condition,individual difference among drivers should be considered.A RBF neural network based modeling framework is developed to characterize the lane keeping behavior of a driver under normal driving conditions.The effectiveness of the model is analyzed by studying the residuals,i.e.,the differences between the actual and model-predicted driver actions.The model is then used in fatigue driving to predict the hypothetical actions of the driver.The difference between the predicted normal behavior and the actual fatigued behavior gives individual insight into how the driving behavior is affected by fatigue.The residuals were extracted as the input features of a SVM model,which was used to classify normal and fatigued driving conditions for each driver.The validation results show that the average identification accuracy of fatigued driving condition by the proposed model is 85%.

Development of driving anger scale for bus drivers andits preliminary application

LIN Qingfeng, DENG Yuanchang, ZHANG Yuan, SHI Chenjun

2018, 28(6): 49-54. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.009

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In order to explore the driving anger inducement of bus drivers,a driving anger scale for bus drivers was designed through interview,on the basis of the original driving anger scale and driving anger scale for coach drivers.210 valid copies of questionnaire were obtained in Guangdong province.A finalized version of the scale was achieved through the project analysis,exploratory factor analysis,reliability and validity tests.Besides,Pearson correlation analysis and independent sample t-test were conducted to make a preliminary analysis of the result.The analysis result reveals that the revised driving anger scale,which contains 5 subscales: self-interested behaviors,slow driving,traffic obstructions,illegal driving and discourtesy,is made up of 23 items and demonstrates great reliability and validity,that among the 5 subscales,the average score of self-interested behaviors is the highest,that bus drivers involved in at least one accident and punished for breaking traffic laws in the past two years both significantly scored higher in slow driving,that bus driving age is positively correlated with the scores of all subscales,except slow driving,and that while average working hours per day is positively correlated with the scores of both self-interested behaviors and discourtesy.

Research on processes and approaches to change safety attitude

HUANG Xi, WU Chao

2018, 28(6): 55-60. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.010

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Unsafe attitudes will lead to unsafe behaviors.Thus,changing unsafe attitudes is an important way to prevent accidents.Humans' safety attitude is their cognition,feeling and implicit behavioral response to the unsafe factors,safety state and safeguards in the social organization they are in.Based on this definition,the connotations of safety attitude were analyzed.Based on this,the internal changing process of safety attitude was explored from the perspective of content imbalance and psychological needs.Furthermore,an external effect model of changing safety attitude was built based on the communication and persuasion theory.The result shows that to change safety attitude,the influence of persuaders and the impact of safety information should be increased,the psychological resistance of audiences should be decreased and the coherence of environment should be improved.

Research on novice drivers' ability in potential hazard cognition as a function of training dimension

HUA Jun, ZHAO Junwei, LIU Haoxue, ZHU Tong

2018, 28(6): 61-66. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.011

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In order to improve the safety education system of drivers in China,and prevent road traffic accidents caused by drivers,experiments were carried out on 36 testees.Passing rate of potential hazard cognition,correct judgment rate of hazard area and accuracy of hazard mitigation were selected as the evaluation indexes.Data on the testees were recorded by using the self-developed test and training software.Statistics methods were used to study the improvement of ability in potential hazard cognition under different training frequency and richness conditions.The results show that the ability can be improved and maintained by repeated training,that compared with low-frequency,training every 3-6 days is better,and multi-training with targeted education guidance enables novice driver to improve faster,that under limited training conditions,effects of multi-training for 6-8 times are better,and that the conclusions can provide some suggestions for the improvement of the safety training system of drivers.

Research on human error ontology modeling and BN diagnosisfor handover in ATM system

WANG Jiening, YU Rui

2018, 28(6): 67-72. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.012

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For the purpose of controlling the risk of human error in the handover process in ATM under the influence of human error and improving the security of operation,an ATM human error ontology model was built on the basis of the model of HERA-JANUS,and a human error diagnosis BN model was extracted from the domain ontology model by means of BNTab and NeticaJ subsequently.Also,a revised prior BN was acquired by training statistical data from ASRS database,and a certain unsafe event relating to handover was used as an example to verify the effectiveness of the BN and find key errors.The results show that key factors in human errors in handover can be identified in virtue of the BN transformed from the ontology,and three kinds of internal error behaviors such as incorrect transmit information,misjudgment,late or no detection have a significant influence on information transfer,selection of action,timing of action,respectively.

Study on congestion mechanism in multi-lane weaving section ofurban expressway

CHEN Liang, HE Zhichao, LI Qiaoru, HE Tao

2018, 28(6): 73-78. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.013

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To alleviate the ever severer congestion problem in weaving section of urban expressway,a discrete model of multi-lane weaving section was built based on CA and consideration of the influences of temporary driving-out vehicles,the factors of vehicle lane-changing safety clearance and lane-changing behaviors.Furthermore,simulation experiments of the evolution of traffic flow in multi-lane weaving section under saturated condition were carried out,and a formation mechanism of congestion in the weaving section was analyzed.The model was preliminarily validated by comparing the traffic obtained by the simulation experiments and that in actual statistics.It is shown that the model of multi-lane weaving section can reproduce the traffic flow in the weaving section more reasonably,that the regular driving-out vehicles and the temporary driving-out vehicles have great influences on the traffic flow in the weaving section,that among them,the temporary driving-out vehicles are characterized with suddenness,which has a serious impact on the capacity of the weaving section,and that in order to maximize the capacity of the weaving section,whose length should not be less than 150 m.

Study on improving vehicle longitudinal safety based on vision revision and projection reversion technique

MA Yuchun, ZHOU Jincao

2018, 28(6): 79-84. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.014

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In view of that the longitudinal warning system delay phenomenon caused by the low accuracy of longitudinal ranging results in traditional computer vision,a visual revision and projection reversion technique based method was developed for measuring the longitudinal distance between the two vehicles running in the same direction and having a significant risk of collision.A convergence state longitudinal early warning model was built after analyzing the defects in the traditional emanative distance detection models by using the elk test method.The static experiment based on target source plate shown that the average absolute and relative errors of distance measurement by the method are less than 2.6 m and 3.5% respectively in the 30-100 m range of distance.

Model for predicting traffic conflict in interchange diverging area

ZHENG Zhanji, XIANG Qiaojun, LI Han GU Xin

2018, 28(6): 85-90. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.015

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Lanes changing occurrs frequently in freeway interchange diverging area,which leads to the disruption of traffic flow and lots of traffic conflicts.In order to analyze the traffic safety in the diverging area,this study analyzed on the relationship between traffic conflicts and the characteristics of traffic flow such as the headway and vehicle lanes changing zone.The gap acceptance theory was used to judge the traffic conflict interval and to build a traffic conflict predicting model of interchange diverging area.The results show that there is a significant and positive correlation between the lanes changing zone and the traffic conflict point,both of which are located within 600 m from the reference point and the first 60 m of the deceleration lane,that the critical headway of traffic conflict is 2.21 s and the traffic conflict headway interval based on gap acceptance theory is (2.06 s,2.31 s),that the relative error between the result predicted by using the model and the actual statistical results is below 10%,and that the length of deceleration lane and diversion ratio are the main factors affecting the number of traffic conflicts and can provide a sound basis for improving traffic safety in diverging area.

Retrograde stepwise reconstruction analysis of multiple compound traffic accidents

TAO Sunwen, CHEN Jiqing, LAN Fengchong

2018, 28(6): 91-96. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.016

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In order to reconstruct multiple compound traffic accidents and determine their causes,a method of retrograde stepwise reconstruction was developed.Firstly,a small amount of accident information collected was analyzed and identified,according to the results and a complex accident was divided into several collision sequences.Then,the collision process of the back-end timing was simulated and the time-series vehicle motion state was obtained,the consistency of the reproduction process was determined by using the consistency constraint scheme,if consistent,the previous collision sequence will be simulated in the same way,and this step will be pushed backward continuously until the accident simulation was completed.The process and causes of the accident were determined.Finally,the method was verified by reconstructing a double-sequence compound accident.The results show that this method can be used to reconstruct the double-sequence compound accident accurately,and make the error rate smaller,and that collection and evaluation analysis of information on the earlier stage of an accident are beneficial to determining the formation of the accident.

Application of Bayesian network in analysis of reliability of fire protection system

CHEN Changfei, BAI Guoqiang

2018, 28(6): 97-102. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.017

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Based on the differences in the fire protection system work environments,two kinds of reliability were put forward.A Bayesian analysis program was developed for analyzing reliabilities of automatic fire protection systems.According to the fault analysis of the fire protection components,the Bayesian network nodes were identified,their probabilities were analyzed,and a Bayesian network of automatic sprinkler system was established in the case of automatic sprinkler system.A reliability comparison between different starting pump modes,shows that the wet automatic fire-extinguishing system has a higher reliability when the normally open contacts of low-pressure switch and the normally open contacts of the pressure switch are connected in series to form the AND circuit.

Dynamic response analysis of neritic gas pipeline impacted by dropped objects

LUO Jiqing, YAO Anlin, HE Sha, ZHOU Xue, WANG Xiaomei, LIU Yisi

2018, 28(6): 103-109. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.018

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In order to carry out further research into the impact damage process of neritic gas pipelines caused by dropped objects,the dynamic response was analyzed by the simplified analytical method and numerical simulation method.The impact loads of dropped objects were calculated by non-perfect elastic collision theory and momentum conservation law.The transmission of impact load in soil was analyzed based on J.Boussinesq method,and the attenuation coefficient was used in analyzing the transmission in the concrete layer.Then the internal force was calculated.Workbench LS-DYNA software was used to simulate the dynamic response process of neritic gas pipeline impacted by dropped objects.The results show that the distribution of impact load obtained by simulation is similar to that obtained by J.Boussinesq method,but the speed of attenuation is faster,and that because the soil layer and concrete protective layer absorb most of the impact energy,the impact load on the pipeline is limited.

Analysis of fluctuating-wind-induced deformation response ofopen-topped cylindrical steel storage tanks

HAO Xiaoxiao, HU Jinqiu, LIU Wencai, NIU Yun

2018, 28(6): 110-115. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.019

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To improve the safety design level of cylindrical steel storage tanks,numerical modeling of a 10×10⁴ m³ floating roof tank was carried out by using the finite element software ANSYS.A static analysis of tank under the average wind effect based on the "code of building load" was performed.Also,dynamic displacement response under fluctuating wind loading was evaluated through the time-history analysis.A further comparison was made between the two analysis results.The results show that under the basic wind pressure of 1 000 Pa,the peak value of the maximum of radial displacement of tank during the excitation time of 120 s is 7.76 mm,which has been estimated 120% greater than that under static wind loading.Moreover,the variation observed among the gust displacement factors at different key nodes is not significant,and that the overall displacement wind vibration coefficient of the storage tank can be taken as 2.2.

Cloud model for assessing inherent safety assessment of chemical process and its application

CAI Yilun, YANG Fuqiang, ZHU Weifang, SONG Yuze

2018, 28(6): 116-121. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.020

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Aiming at assessing inherent safety of chemical process scientifically,a cloud model was built,in which the pressure,temperature,inventory,explosiveness,flammability,toxicity and reactivity were chosen as the evaluation factors.The chemical process parameters and the grading standards were transformed into normal cloud grading standards.The comprehensive weights of factors were obtained via the entropy weight method.In order to determine inherent safety level of each process route and the corresponding inherent safety level,a maximum membership principle of fuzzy subset B was developed.As a case study,four process routes of MMA were analyzed with the above model,the results indicated no obvious difference from the results of Prototype Index for Inherent Safety,Inherent Safety Index,i-Safe.It shows that the model can determine the level of chemical inherent safety assessment accurately and provide a sound basis for the process route selection.

Anchoring measures for CFRP-strenghtened RC beam-column joints

XU Junyan, LI Guibing, ZHENG Binbin, SHI Junwei, DONG Yu

2018, 28(6): 122-128. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.021

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Presently,there are very few researches and definitive conclusions on the anchorage system of CFRP-strenghtened RC beam-column joints.ACI440.2R emphasized that special attention should be paid to the anchorage of CFRP laminates,and only proposed some conceptual anchorage measures.GB50367-2013 suggested quantitative anchorage measures,which were lack of theoretical and experimental support.To investigate the reliability and effectiveness of an anchorage system,this study tested six CFRP-strenghtened RC beam-column joints with different anchorage systems.The experimental results show that the anchorage measures suggested by the codes cannot ensure the safety of a strenghtened member,that mechanical anchorage system is reliable and effective,that the foot-plate length and stiffness of the anchorage have significant effects on its anchoring effectiveness,and the suitable foot-plate length of the anchorage is no more than 100 mm,and that the external anchorage does not destroy the original structure and can improve the shear capacity of the column,and is preferred in engineering application.

Experimental study on thermodynamics characteristics of CH₄ and CO₂ adsorption on coal

LIN Haifei, WEI Wenbin, LI Shugang, YAN Min, BAI Yang

2018, 28(6): 129-134. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.022

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To reveal the adsorption thermodynamic mechanism of CO₂ and CH₄ on coal,isothermal adsorption experiments at different temperatures were carried out with typical coal samples taken from Xinjiang Liuhuanggou.The Langmuir,Freundlich and D-R adsorption were used to fit the isothermal adsorption curves,based on the theory of adsorption potential energy,coal sample adsorption thermodynamic characteristics of CO₂ and CH₄ were researched.The results indicate that the isothermal adsorption curve under different temperatures of CH₄ and CO₂ adsorption are in line with Langmuir,Freundlich and D-R equation model,that there is a negative correlation between the adsorption potential energy of CH₄ and CO₂ and the adsorption quantity,and there is a positive correlation between both the isosteric heat and entropy change and the adsorption quantity,the adsorption potential energy,isosteric heat,adsorption entropy change CO₂ are all greater than those of CH₄,that with increasing of temperature,the adsorption entropy of CH₄ and CO₂ decreased,that the changes in adsorption potential of CH₄ and CO₂ are not only affected by the surface force but also by the enthalpy of adsorption and adsorption entropy,that the CO₂ isosteric adsorption heat is affected by intermolecular competition and micropore filling,and that the adsorption thermodynamics parameters can be used to characterize the adsorption performance of coal sample,and reveal the nature of coal surface competitive adsorption.

Method for constructing obstacle assessment surfacebased on collision risk model

WEI Zhiqiang, GE Fei, WANG Zhong, LI Na

2018, 28(6): 135-140. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.023

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In order to improve the obstacle evaluation method in the precision approach segment,a CRM based ellipse evaluation method was proposed.Firstly,the probability of collision risk at each position of the precision approach segment was calculated by CRM,the ellipse fitting dots which risk probability is equal to 1×10^-7 were chosen,and the elliptical evaluation surface was constructed; Then,taking a typical airport as an example,the obstacles ellipse evaluation surface and obstacle assessment surface (OAS) was used to evaluate typical obstacles,and the evaluation results were compared.Finally,CRM was used to verify the reliability of the obstacle ellipse evaluation surface.The results showed that the evaluation results of OAS were conservative.Using the newly constructed obstacles to evaluate the elliptical surface could effectively improve the airspace utilization rate of the airport precision approach segment under the premise of meeting the safe operation.

Identification of key safety risk factors for tunnel shield construction

LI Meng, GONG Yujie, YU Hongliang

2018, 28(6): 141-146. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.024

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In order to examine the key safety risk factors in tunnel shiled construction in China,a systematic method by integrating EFA and SEM was proposed.7 common risk factors were extracted by EFA from 36 questionnaire items,relationships between the safety of tunnel shield construction the 7 public factors were examined by SEM.The established model was validated through hypothesis tests and goodness-of-lit tests.The inuences of public factors on safety in metro construction were characterized by the path coefficients in the model.It was found that the safety is profoundly influenced by risks associated with the launching and arrival of tunnel boring machine(TBM).Provide guidance for improving the safety management of subway construction.

Research on character of biomass fly ash particle concentration distribution in cyclone separator

YAO Xiwen, XU Kaili, ZHANG Xiumin, XU Qingwei, LI Li, LI Jishuo

2018, 28(6): 147-152. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.025

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In view of that the concentrations of fly ash particles in cyclone separators of biomass gasification station are very high,it is much difficult to measure the biomass ash concentration,and a cyclone separator's separation efficiency is closely related to the turbulent flow field with high temperature,a simulation model was established by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software based on characters of cyclone separator in gasification station,for obtaining the concentration distribution of ash particles and studying the relationship between the separation efficiency,biomass gas temperature and gas velocity.The biomass gas at high temperature released from gasifier was taken as the object of this study.The coupling migration of both air and fly ash inside the cyclone separator at high temperature was studied in numerical simulation,using a gas-particle coupling mathematic model.The results show that the phenomenon of upper dust ring exists in the annular space,that the separation ability of cylinder space is much better than that of cone space,that the ash concentration distribution curve in cone space and that in cylinder space are a bathtub curve,that the ash concentration in the same radial position increases as temperature elevated,and that as the inlet velocity increases,the separation efficiency firstly increases,then decreases.

Thinking about tower crane safety from an angle of complex sociotechnical system

ZHAO Tingsheng, ZHOU Wei, XU Kai, HE Lingyun

2018, 28(6): 153-159. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.026

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For the sake of promoting the safety management of tower cranes in a complex sociotechnical system,the safety of the tower crane was studied by using the system thinking method.Firstly,characteristics of tower crane system were analyzed to understand the components of tower crane safety system.Second,based on RASMUSSEN risk management theory,a hierarchy system of tower crane safety system was established,which contains 5 levels,including regulatory bodies,tower crane stakeholders,construction site management,on-site staffs,environment and equipment.Then,systematic identification of 56 factors influencing tower crane safety was carried out through literature review,accident analysis and expert interviews.A generalized generic Accimap model of tower crane safety was built by using Accimap modeling technique.Finally,the system mechanism of tower crane safety is further analyzed in view of complex sociotechnical system.Results show that tower crane safety results from coupling of multi-level and multi-dimensional factors,and it is affected by feedback between layers,migration phenomena and dynamic environment,and that tower crane safety management should follow the vertical integration idea,pay attention to the factor interaction path,and take systemic interventions and control measures.

Study on classification system of intangible losses caused by safety accidents in construction enterprises

ZHANG Jianshe, SHEN Xuemei, LI Hujun, LUO Chunyang

2018, 28(6): 160-165. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.027

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The paper was aimed at evaluating scientifically and rationally the intangible losses caused by safety accidents in construction enterprises.Based on the view that intangible loss is caused by the decrease in the function of enterprise intangible assets,a definition of the intangible loss of safety accidents in construction enterprises was proposed.The intangible losses were classified from individual and organizational angles,connotations of the intangible loss sub-items were expounded,a classification system of intangible losses was constructed and the classification system was applied to an accident case.The research shows that the classification system of intangible losses caused by safety accidents can fully describe the indirect negative impact caused by accidents in construction companies,and it will play a guiding role in assessing the impact of corporate safety accidents.

Research on flight operations risk identification based on multi-algorithm collaboration

WANG Yantao, ZHAO Yifei

2018, 28(6): 166-172. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.028

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In view of that using a single algorithm is difficult to greatly improve the accuracy of flight operation risk identification,this article analyzes the flight operation workflow in detail first.Fifteen important evaluation indicators were screened out.A hundred flight cases of X Airlines were selected as data samples.Nine risk core indicators were got by using rough set theory reduction.Then,two kinds of machine learning methods,SVM and neural network,were used to build a risk identification model for calculating the risk levels,and a comparison was made between the levels and the operation result of X-Air control system based on fuzzy algorithm.A multi-algorithm collaboration model was built according to the advantages and disadvantages of each algorithm.Finally,operational data of G-Air and N-Air was used to test the applicability of the model.The results show that the neural network method has the best effect on low-risk discrimination,SVM has the strongest ability to identify medium and high risks,and a correct rate up to 95% can be obtained by using the multi-algorithm collaboration model.

Application of GRA-SPA-EW decision model in evaluating risk of rock burst

SHI Junwei, MENG Xiangrui, WU Changyou, JIA Xiaoshan

2018, 28(6): 173-178. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.029

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To quantify risk of rock burst,a GRA-SPA-EW decision model was built,using the theories of GRA and SPA.A set of pairs for indicators and risk grades of rock burst was established,absolute relevance degrees and comprehensive contact degrees between them were calculated,and the hazard level of rock burst was determined.Then,the indexes' weights of rock burst were determined by method of entropy weight,and an identical degree matrix of the most highly vulnerable area and lowest vulnerable area of rock burst was constructed,also its risk susceptibility was evaluated.Finally,a typical coal mine was taken as an example,five working faces were selected as research objects,and the risk of rock burst on each working face was evaluated.Results show that the model comprehensively considers the identity,difference,and opposition between index factors of the evaluation object,quantitatively analyzes the contact coefficients,and highlights the differences between evaluation objects through multi-attribute decision making of EW.

Construction of disaster chain network model and evaluation of network index for urban rail transit system

LI Xiaolu, YU Xinming, LEI Fangshu, XI Yanhong, MAO Jun, ZHU Guangyu

2018, 28(6): 179-184. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.030

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To quantitatively describe the communication relationships between urban rail transit disaster events,help decision makers make more scientific judgments on disaster events,the HAZOP method was used to develop a method for extracting the disaster event set of the urban rail system,based on the historical data on urban rail accidents,a disaster chain oriented network model was built through the construction of a co-occurrence matrix and the calculation of Jaccard index,and values of importance of nodes and edges in a given disaster chain network were evaluated quantitatively on the basis of the statistical indicators of complex networks.Finally,the model and the evaluation method were verified by using historical accident data.The results show that the disaster chain network model can objectively reflect the propagation relationship between disaster events,and that the importance evaluation results of the edges and nodes of the network are consistent with the actual situation.

Model and algorithm for lean principle based deploying emergency resources

FENG Chun, LIAO Haiyan, TIAN Xiaoqiang, ZHANG Yi

2018, 28(6): 185-191. doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.06.031

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In order to improve the ability to cope with sudden natural disasters,and improve the efficiency of emergency response,scenario modeling method was used to construct different disaster scenarios,and a lean deploying model of emergency resources was built which was aimed at maximizing the social value of emergency rescue,considering distribution fairness and resources limitation.Main decisions included location and scale of facilities,allocation of emergency supplies in different scenarios.An improved differential evolution algorithm was worked out to solve the model and the algorithm was verified by a numerical example.The results show that the model can achieve the goal that maximizing social value of limited emergency resources,and the improved differential evolution algorithm can be used to obtain the optimal solution of the model and provide a basis for decision making.

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