机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.016

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (1): 93-98.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.01.016

机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价

夏正洪¹ 副教授, 万健² 高级工程师, 朱新平¹ 副教授

1 中国民用航空飞行学院空中交通管理学院, 四川广汉 618307
2 中国民航科学技术研究院, 北京 100028

收稿日期:2017-10-28 出版日期:2018-01-28 发布日期:2020-09-28
作者简介:夏正洪 (1985—),男,四川乐山人,硕士,副教授,主要从事机场运行安全及空管自动化系统的应用方面的研究。E-mail:xcj3232@aliyun.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空联合项目资助(U1433126,U1733105);民航科技项目重大专项(MHRD20150102)。

Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots and airport operational risk assessment

XIA Zhenghong¹, WAN Jian², ZHU Xinping¹

1 School of Air Traffic Control, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China
2 China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology, Beijing 100028, China

Received:2017-10-28 Online:2018-01-28 Published:2020-09-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为研究大型机场航空器地面滑行冲突风险,提出一种基于机场热点时空分布特征的机场机动区运行风险评价方法。首先,以中南地区某机场为例,将场监雷达数据按每3 h分段,分别识别各时间段的机场热点,分析其时空分布特征;然后,基于热点发生的可能性和后果的严重性,构建考虑航空器冲突架次比、冲突可能性、冲突持续时间、冲突级别的机场热点风险评价模型,依据现有机场热点风险等级评价标准,评价该机场的热点风险等级。结果表明:该机场02号跑道运行风险高于20号跑道;02号跑道起降时,12:00—15:00点的机场热点风险最高;20号跑道起降时,9:00—12:00点机场热点的风险较高,与该机场实际运行情况基本相符。

关键词: 机场热点, 时空分布特征, 风险评价, 地面交通流, 冲突架次比, 冲突持续时间

Abstract: In order to study the risk of aircraft taxiing conflicts in large airports, a method was worked out for evaluating the operational risk of airport maneuvering area based on the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots. Firstly, an airport in the south-central region of China was taken as an example, whose aerodrome surveillance radar data was divided into several 3 hours long segments, and airport hotspots were identified for the segments, and their spatial and temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed. Then a risk assessment model was built, in which the possibility of hotspots formation, severity of the consequence of the recognized hotspots, conflict sortie ratio of aircrafts, level of conflict possibility, duration of conflict and conflict level were considered. Based on the existing risk level assessment standards, the risk levels of the airport hotspots were evaluated. According to the results, risk levels of airport hotspots are affected by airport traffic flow and operational modes of runway. The operational risk of runway 02 is higher than that of runway 20. If the runway 02 is used for landing or taking-off, the highest risk level will be reached in the segment of 12:00-15:00. And if the runway 20 is used, the risk level of hotspots is relatively high in the segment of 9:00-12:00. The results conform with the reality of the airport.

Key words: risk evaluation, airport hotspots, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, surface traffic flow, conflict sortie ratio of aircrafts;duration of conflict

中图分类号:

X949
V351

夏正洪, 万健, 朱新平. 机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(1): 93-98.

XIA Zhenghong, WAN Jian, ZHU Xinping. Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots and airport operational risk assessment[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(1): 93-98.

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机场热点时空分布特征及运行风险评价

Research on spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of airport hotspots and airport operational risk assessment

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