城市道路危险货物运输风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.05.030

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (5): 179-184.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2018.05.030

城市道路危险货物运输风险评估

马晓丽, 刘禹杰, 陆键^** 教授

同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海 201804

收稿日期:2018-01-03 修回日期:2018-03-13 出版日期:2018-05-28 发布日期:2020-11-25
通讯作者: **陆键(1957—),男,上海人,博士,教授,主要从事交通安全、重大交通设施风险管理、智能交通系统等方面的研究。E-mail:jianjohnlu@tongji.edu.cn。
作者简介:马晓丽(1993—),女,山东烟台人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为交通安全风险评估、智能交通系统。E-mail:1632403@tongji.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助(71671127)。

Research on assessment of risk in hazardous materials transportation on urban road

MA Xiaoli, LIU Yujie, LU Jian

Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China

Received:2018-01-03 Revised:2018-03-13 Online:2018-05-28 Published:2020-11-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对城市道路环境复杂、事故区域的暴露人口众多等难题,为客观评价城市道路危险货物的运输风险,建立基于事故概率与事故后果的综合风险评价模型。探讨城市道路危险货物运输过程及危险货物特性,得到风险因素;依据风险源分析,建立基于有序Logit模型的事故概率模型与基于菱形标签的事故后果评价模型,获取运输路线中各路段的综合风险等级;利用距离加权法计算危险货物运输路线的风险值。结果表明:运输路线的风险评估结果可为采取预防和控制措施提供依据,降低城市道路危险货物运输事故发生的概率及事故所造成的损失。

关键词: 危险货物运输, 城市道路, 风险评估, 事故概率模型, 事故后果评价模型, 有序Logit模型, 菱形标签, 距离加权法

Abstract: In view of the complex urban road environment and the larger exposed population in the hazardous materials(Hazmat) accidents area,a comprehensive risk assessment model based on possibility and consequences of accidents was built to objectively evaluate the risk of transportation of hazmat on urban roads.Firstly,the risk factors were obtained by exploring Hazmat characteristics and the transportation process.Secondly,ordered Logit model was used to build a risk assessment model of accident probability,and a risk assessment model of accident consequence was built based on material safety diamonds,thus the risk level of each section in the transportation route could be calculated by using the aforementioned models.Finally,the risk of transportation route for Hazmat could be obtained based on the distance weighting method.The results show that the results of risk assessment can provide a sound basis for taking effective prevention and control measures,reducing the probability and losses of accidents occurred on urban roads.

Key words: Hazmat transportation, urban roads, risk assessment, accident probability model, accident consequences evaluation model, ordered Logit model, material safety diamonds, distance weighting method

中图分类号:

X951

马晓丽, 刘禹杰, 陆键. 城市道路危险货物运输风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(5): 179-184.

MA Xiaoli, LIU Yujie, LU Jian. Research on assessment of risk in hazardous materials transportation on urban road[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(5): 179-184.

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城市道路危险货物运输风险评估

Research on assessment of risk in hazardous materials transportation on urban road

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