关键词: 山区道路, 脆弱性评估, 多因素耦合, 熵权法, 未确知测度理论

Abstract: In order to reduce the incidence of road traffic accidents in mountainous areas and ensure the safety of the operation process of the traffic system, factors influencing mountains road system vulnerability were analyzed and identified comprehensively on the basis of the accident causation theory under multi-factor coupling, and a vulnerability assessment index system for mountains road system was established considering the characteristics and potential safety hazards of mountains road. Then, in light of many uncertainties in mountains road system, the uncertainty measure theory was introduced and a vulnerability assessment model of mountains road system based on the entropy weight-uncertainty measure theory by multiple-factor coupling was constructed. The model was applied to five engineering cases, and the vulnerability levels and rankings were determined. The results show that evaluation results of the model are in good agreement with the actual situation and the error is acceptable, and that the proposed model can provide decision-making basis for the management and control of mountains road traffic safety.

Key words: mountainous road, vulnerability assessment, multiple-factor coupling, entropy weight method, uncertainty measure theory