易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景分析

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.028

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (5): 171-177.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2019.05.028

易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景分析

王健, 张明广教授, 黄馨, 陈家瑞

南京工业大学安全科学与工程学院,江苏南京 211816

收稿日期:2019-01-06 修回日期:2019-03-26 发布日期:2020-11-02
作者简介:王健(1993—),男,江苏常州人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为危险化学品道路运输风险评估,事故过程分析以及后果预测等。E-mail:wangj_1436@163.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0801500);2016年度高校“青蓝工程”项目;江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX17_0919)。

Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals

WANG Jian, ZHANG Mingguang, HUANG Xin, CHEN Jiarui

College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing Jiangsu 211816, China

Received:2019-01-06 Revised:2019-03-26 Published:2020-11-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探究易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景演变趋势,发掘事故后果类型预测方法,首先搜集、统计2013—2018年国内983起易燃易爆危化品道路运输事故数据,从中提取事故发展过程中各个环节的特征参数,并将其作为网络节点;然后借助Netica软件进行参数学习,并构建易燃易爆危化品道路运输事故情景分析贝叶斯网络(BN)模型,最后进行后验概率推理,提出“初发事故—危化品事故”模式的事故链预测方法。研究表明:该事故情景分析模型可有效评估各类因素对事故情景演化的影响程度,并预测事故情景演化态势和导致特定事故后果的最可能出现的情景。

关键词: 易燃易爆, 危险化学品, 道路运输, 贝叶斯网络(BN), Netica, 事故情景, 事故链

Abstract: In order to explore the evolution trend of accident scenarios, the Netica was used to study the accidents characteristic parameters extracted from 983 road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals from 2013 to 2018 in China. And a BN model for road transportation accident analysis of hazardous materials was constructed. Fianlly, posterior probability was studied and the model was adopt to develop a prediction method of fault chain in the form of "initial accident - hazardous chemicals accident". The results show that the scenario analysis model can effectively assess the impact of various factors on the evolution of accident scenarios, and that the evolution of accident scenarios and the most likely scenario leading to specific consequences can be predicted by the model.

Key words: inflammable and explosive, hazardous chemicals, road transportation, Bayesian network(BN), Netica, accident scenario, fault chain

中图分类号:

X951

王健, 张明广, 黄馨, 陈家瑞. 易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2019, 29(5): 171-177.

WANG Jian, ZHANG Mingguang, HUANG Xin, CHEN Jiarui. Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2019, 29(5): 171-177.

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易燃易爆危险化学品道路运输事故情景分析

Scenario analysis of road transportation accidents of inflammable and explosive hazardous chemicals

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