基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.027

中国安全科学学报 ›› 2020, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 172-178.doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.027

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估

许素睿副教授

中国劳动关系学院安全工程学院,北京100048

收稿日期:2020-01-12 修回日期:2020-03-17 出版日期:2020-04-28 发布日期:2021-01-27
作者简介:许素睿(1978—),女,河南西平人,硕士,副教授,主要从事行为安全和安全管理等方面的研究。E-mail:kerryxsr@163.com。
基金资助:
中国劳动关系学院一般项目(20XYJS019)。

Risk assessment on unsafe behavior of coal miner based on Monte Carlo method

XU Surui

College of Safety Engineering, China University of Labor Relations, Beijing 100048,China

Received:2020-01-12 Revised:2020-03-17 Online:2020-04-28 Published:2021-01-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为预防顶板、瓦斯爆炸、煤与瓦斯突出、水害4类煤矿事故,首先通过2-4 Model分析100起煤矿事故不安全动作,构建基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估模型;然后研究4类事故的行为风险后果值及每类事故中不安全动作对行为风险的影响程度;最后提出煤矿事故行为风险预防措施。研究结果表明:瓦斯爆炸事故行为风险最大,其次是煤与瓦斯突出事故和水害事故行为风险,顶板事故行为风险最小;未能有效探放水、未按规定施工生产、违规指挥生产这3种不安全动作对煤矿事故行为风险影响较大。

关键词: 蒙特卡罗法, 煤矿工人, 不安全动作, 风险评估, 2-4 Model

Abstract: In order to prevent coal mine roof, gas explosion, coal and gas outburst and water damage accidents, the unsafe acts of 100 coal mine accidents were analyzed by 2-4 Model, then the risk assessment model of coal miners' unsafe behavior based on Monte Carlo method was established. The risk value of accident behavior and the influence degree of unsafe acts on behavioral risks in each type of accident are studied, and accident prevention measures based on individual behavior level are proposed. The results shows that the risk of gas explosion accidents is the biggest, followed by coal and gas outburst, water damage, and roof accidents. In addition, three kinds of unsafe acts have a great impact on the risk of coal mine accident behavior, including "not effective water exploration", "violation of regulations in construction and production" and "giving instructions against rules and regulations".

Key words: Monte Carlo method, coal miner, unsafe acts, risk assessment, 2-4 Model

中图分类号:

X913.4

许素睿. 基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(4): 172-178.

XU Surui. Risk assessment on unsafe behavior of coal miner based on Monte Carlo method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(4): 172-178.

参考文献

[1] 赵晋都, 李建生. 煤炭行业的可持续发展战略[J]. 经济师, 2001(2): 206-207.
[2] 公建祥. 煤矿掘进工作面事故预防的行为控制技术研究[D]. 北京:中国矿业大学(北京), 2016.
GONG Jianxiang. The technology of behavior control for coal mine heading face accident prevention [D]. Beijing:China University of Mining & Technology(Beijing), 2016.
[3] 李创起. 煤矿掘进工作面复杂环境下人的安全行为模式研究[D]. 焦作:河南理工大学, 2012.
LI Chuangqi. Study on human safe behavior model under complex conditions of coal mine heading face [D]. Jiaozuo:Henan Polytechnic University, 2012.
[4] 殷文韬, 傅贵, 公建祥. 煤矿工人违章操作的“认知-行为”失效机理与管理措施[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2015, 25(10): 153-159.
YIN Wentao, FU Gui. GONG Jianxiang. Research on coal miners' operating against safety regulation: "cognition-behavior" failure mechanism and control measures [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2015, 25(10): 153-159.
[5] 艾飞成. 安全氛围与煤矿工人不安全行为的关系研究[D]. 西安:西安科技大学, 2014.
AI Feicheng. Research on the relationship between safety climate and human unsafe behavior in coal mine [D]. Xi'an:Xi'an University of Science and Technology, 2014.
[6] 王家坤, 王新华, 王晨. 基于工作满意度的煤矿员工不安全行为研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2018, 28(11): 14-20.
WANG Jiakun, WANG Xinhua, WANG Chen. Research on coal miners' unsafe behavior based on job satisfaction [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2018, 28(11): 14-20.
[7] 王萍. 煤矿瓦斯事故中不安全行为形成机理及研究[D]. 太原:太原理工大学, 2010.
WANG Ping. A study of formation mechanism of the unsafe behavior for coalmine gas accident [D]. Taiyuan: Taiyuan University of Technology, 2010.
[8] 傅贵, 殷文韬, 董继业,等. 行为安全“2-4”模型及其在煤矿安全管理中的应用[J]. 煤炭学报, 2013, 38(7): 1 123-1 129.
FU Gui, YIN Wentao, DONG Jiye, et al. Behavior-based accident causation: the “2-4”model and its safety implications in coal mines [J]. Journal of China Coal Society, 2013, 38(7): 1 123-1 129.
[9] 祝楷. 煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故原因研究[D]. 北京:中国矿业大学(北京), 2017.
ZHU Kai. Study on the causes of coal mine gas explosion accidents [D]. Beijing:China University of Mining & Technology(Beijing), 2017.
[10] 高平. 煤矿顶板事故不安全动作原因及控制方法研究[D]. 北京:中国矿业大学(北京), 2016.
GAO Ping. Research on unsafe acts and control method of coal mine roof accidents in China [D]. Beijing:China University of Mining & Technology(Beijing), 2016.
[11] 杨春. 煤矿水灾事故不安全动作原因研究[D]. 北京:中国矿业大学(北京), 2016.
YANG Chun. The study on unsafe act causes for coal mine flooding accident [D]. Beijing:China University of Mining & Technology(Beijing), 2016.
[12] LI Shuang, WANG Yao, LIU Qian. A model of unsafe behavior in coal mines based on game theory[J].International Journal of Mining Science and Technology,2013, 23(1): 99-103.
[13] XU Zhengquan,WANG Huaqing. Identify unsafe behavior proneness coal miner: a fuzzy analogy preferred ratio method[C]. Proceedings of 20134^th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation (IEMI2013), 2014: 523-530.
[14] 兰建义, 周英. 基于层次分析-模糊综合评价的煤矿人因失误安全评价[J]. 煤矿安全, 2013, 44(10): 222-225.
LAN Jianyi, ZHOU Ying. Mine human error safety assessment based on AHP and FCE [J]. Safety in Coal Mines, 2013, 44(10): 222-225.
[15] 畅笑, 王保民. 基于灰色关联法的煤矿事故不安全行为风险评估[J]. 煤炭技术, 2017, 36(9): 330-333.
CHANG Xiao, WANG Baomin. Risk assessment of coal mine incident unsafe behavior based on gray relational analysis [J]. Coal Technology, 2017, 36(9): 330-333.
[16] 佟瑞鹏, 马晓飞. 基于蒙特卡罗法的家具制造工人不安全行为风险评估[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2018, 14(7): 187-192.
TONG Ruipeng, MA Xiaofei. Risk assessment on unsafe behavior of furniture manufacturing workers based on Monte Carlo method [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2018, 14(7): 187-192.

基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估

Risk assessment on unsafe behavior of coal miner based on Monte Carlo method

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价

[1]	刘嘉豪, 余杨, 张振兴, 余建星, 王巍巍, 傅一钦. 二维云模型和贝叶斯网络的立管风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(5): 147-154.
[2]	辛保泉, 喻健良, 党文义, 白永忠, 于安峰. 定量风险评估视域下的多组分混合物危险特性[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 80-85.
[3]	卢颖, 赵志攀, 姜学鹏, 吴锦东, 范小鹏. 大数据视域下体育场馆动态火灾风险指标研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(4): 155-162.
[4]	黄杰, 张显峰. 以南疆为例的区域暴恐袭击风险评估^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 192-199.
[5]	张鸽. 基于累积接尘量的尘肺病风险评估方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(2): 200-206.
[6]	韩鹏, 王军, 王启, 赵嶷飞. 基于飞行剖面的航空器试飞活动空管风险研究^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(1): 149-156.
[7]	刘继川, 桂蕾. 城市公共安全风险评估与控制对策研究:以武汉市为例^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2022, 32(1): 164-171.
[8]	辛保泉, 党文义, 喻健良, 王溪舸, 闫兴清, 卢卫. 石化过程蒸气云爆炸抗爆设防荷载定量评估方法^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(9): 113-118.
[9]	安宇, 李子琪, 王袆, 郭子萌, 张姜博南. 基于FBN的高校实验室不安全行为风险评估^*[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(5): 160-167.
[10]	马润, 仇维斌 , 秦云, 欧红香. 模糊区间TOPSIS动车组塞拉门故障风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(4): 177-183.
[11]	赵冬月, 陈长坤, 易亮. 灾害演化网络时序性风险评估模型[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(3): 171-177.
[12]	鲁锦涛, 任利成, 戎丹, 郭昕曜. 基于灰色-物元模型的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 99-105.
[13]	韩鹏, 张冰玉. 航迹误差对无人机坠地伤人风险评估的影响[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 106-111.
[14]	刘大山, 陈晓春, 多英全, 师立晨. 化工园区地震Na-Tech事件快速风险评估方法[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 127-134.
[15]	汪铁楠, 翟越, 王康, 赵瑞峰, 韩树鹏. 新冠肺炎疫情下的高校复课综合风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2021, 31(2): 143-148.