基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.027

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为预防顶板、瓦斯爆炸、煤与瓦斯突出、水害4类煤矿事故,首先通过2-4 Model分析100起煤矿事故不安全动作,构建基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估模型;然后研究4类事故的行为风险后果值及每类事故中不安全动作对行为风险的影响程度;最后提出煤矿事故行为风险预防措施。研究结果表明:瓦斯爆炸事故行为风险最大,其次是煤与瓦斯突出事故和水害事故行为风险,顶板事故行为风险最小;未能有效探放水、未按规定施工生产、违规指挥生产这3种不安全动作对煤矿事故行为风险影响较大。

关键词: 蒙特卡罗法, 煤矿工人, 不安全动作, 风险评估, 2-4 Model

Abstract: In order to prevent coal mine roof, gas explosion, coal and gas outburst and water damage accidents, the unsafe acts of 100 coal mine accidents were analyzed by 2-4 Model, then the risk assessment model of coal miners' unsafe behavior based on Monte Carlo method was established. The risk value of accident behavior and the influence degree of unsafe acts on behavioral risks in each type of accident are studied, and accident prevention measures based on individual behavior level are proposed. The results shows that the risk of gas explosion accidents is the biggest, followed by coal and gas outburst, water damage, and roof accidents. In addition, three kinds of unsafe acts have a great impact on the risk of coal mine accident behavior, including "not effective water exploration", "violation of regulations in construction and production" and "giving instructions against rules and regulations".

Key words: Monte Carlo method, coal miner, unsafe acts, risk assessment, 2-4 Model

中图分类号:

X913.4

许素睿. 基于蒙特卡罗法的煤矿工人不安全行为风险评估[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2020, 30(4): 172-178.

XU Surui. Risk assessment on unsafe behavior of coal miner based on Monte Carlo method[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2020, 30(4): 172-178.

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