数量柔性契约下的政企三方联合储备决策研究

doi:10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.10.0310

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提高社会化应急物资联合储备模式的适用性和拓展性、降低政府和制造商的储备风险,引入原材料供应商构建数量柔性契约下政府主导的Stackelberg政企三级联合储备模型。在该模型中,政府和制造商共同储备应急物资的实物,而供应商则负责储备生产应急物资的原材料。使用博弈论中逆序求解法分析政企三方各自的最优储备量,均衡状态下的期望利润和期望成本;并与政府单独储备模式进行对比,以评估政企三级供应链的优势;最后,通过数值模拟和敏感性分析的方法验证结论。研究结果表明:特定的市场条件下,政企三级联合储备模式不仅能够提高整体应急物资储备量,也可降低政府储存风险,提高企业利润,还可强化应急物资储备系统的结构和效能。

关键词: 数量柔性契约, 政企三方联合储备, 应急物资, 原材料储备, 三级供应链

Abstract:

To improve the applicability and scalability of the joint reserve model for social emergency supplies, and reduce the reserve risks of the government and manufacturers, raw material suppliers were used to propose a government-led Stackelberg three-tier joint reserve model of government and enterprises under a quantity flexibility contract. In this model, the government and manufacturer engaged in joint a stockpile of physical emergency supplies, while the suppliers were responsible for stockpiling raw materials for the production of emergency supplies. The inverse-order solution method in game theory was used to analyze the optimal reserve quantity of the three parties to balance the expected profit and cost. Moreover, the advantages of the proposed three-tier supply chain model involving government and enterprises were evaluated. Finally, the model performance was validated by numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis. The results demonstrated that the three-tier joint government-enterprise stockpile model not only improved the overall emergency stockpile volume under specific market conditions but also reduced the government's storage risk. Furthermore, it can enhance the profitability of high-performing enterprises and reinforce the structure and efficacy of the emergency stockpile system.

Key words: quantity flexibility contract, joint reserves of government and enterprises, emergency supplies, reserve of raw materials, three-tier supply chain

中图分类号:

X928.03事故预防与预测

巩玲君, 姜星宇, 郭柯廷. 数量柔性契约下的政企三方联合储备决策研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2024, 34(10): 221-228.

GONG Lingjun, JIANG Xingyu, GUO Keting. Research on joint reserve decision-making of government and enterprises under quantity flexibility contract[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024, 34(10): 221-228.

图/表 5

图1

图2

图3

表1

突发事件发生概率的敏感性分析

ρ	政企三方联合储备模式						政府单独储备模式
ρ	$Q c *$	$Q 1 *$	$Q 2 *$	$Π s 1 *$	$Π m 1 *$	$Π g 1 *$	$Q 0 *$	$Π s 0 *$	$Π m 0 *$	$Π g 0 *$
0.44	114	9 316	4 743	95 406	310 329	1 118 644	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
0.54	3 796	7 590	3 865	96 257	438 046	1 318 525	6 590	32 950	329 502	1 449 977
0.64	6 328	6 404	3 261	96 842	525 851	1 459 068	8 685	43 427	434 267	1 569 981
0.74	8 176	5 539	2 820	97 269	589 926	1 563 290	10 214	51 072	510 718	1 660 253
0.84	9 583	4 880	2 485	97 594	638 744	1 646 909	11 379	56 897	568 966	1 731 414
0.94	10 691	4 360	2 220	97 850	677 175	1 714 046	12 296	61 482	614 820	1 789 561

表1

表2

制造商柔性采购价格的敏感性分析

w₁	政企三方联合储备模式						政府单独储备模式
w₁	$Q c *$	$Q 1 *$	$Q 2 *$	$Π s 1 *$	$Π m 1 *$	$Π g 1 *$	$Q 0 *$	$Π s 0 *$	$Π m 0 *$	$Π g 0 *$
100	114	124	7 801	64 782	352 730	1 178 661	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
102	114	461	7 710	66 301	355 333	1 175 450	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
104	114	788	7 620	67 742	357 497	1 172 431	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙	︙
221	114	10 256	4 369	97 208	294 935	1 115 189	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
223	114	10 337	4 337	97 351	293 532	1 114 911	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972
225	114	10 417	4 304	97 489	292 140	1 114 640	3 542	17 712	177 116	1 279 972

表2

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